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Boston-Specific Info
- Boston Futures: For Greater Boston real estate prices from 1987 through the present and looking several years into the future, see the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Boston snapshot with futures (both before and after inflation). The futures markets are probably the most unbiased predictor of where housing prices are headed.
- Price/Income: For a gauge of how overpriced the market is, see the latest report on the Greater Boston price to income ratio.
- Inflation Adjusted: See the latest report on Massachusetts single family home prices for prices as typically reported by the local media but adjusted for inflation.
- Price/Rent: Comparing prices to rents can help illuminate an overpriced market since many hypothetical justifications for higher home prices should raise rents as well. See the latest report on the Boston MSA price to rent ratio.
- The population of the Greater Boston Area was declining as the housing market posted its most exceptional gains during the bubble. One of the fallacious arguments which was used to contest the existence of a housing bubble was that a growing population was pushing up the natural price of property. While that argument is flawed in general, it is especially wrong when the population is declining.
[Boston Globe]
[Boston Bubble]
- The Wall Street Journal has identified Boston as one of the metropolitan areas in the US where it is cheaper to rent than to buy. Their data goes from 2001, when it was already cheaper to rent, to 2004 when the difference was even more pronounced. The Economist also published an article showing that renting is cheaper, and although it does not focus on Boston, it is very thorough about including various expenses and tax benefits that the Wall Street Journal left out.
[Wall Street Journal]
[The Economist]
- Consumer Reports has rated real estate in the Boston market as "Overpriced" and pegged it at 24% over the affordable price as of Q4 2004.
[Consumer Reports]
- The number of homes sold in Massachusetts has been plummeting. For the third quarter of 2006 (the most recently reported quarter as of this writing), home sales have fallen 23% compared with the same quarter one year earlier. This despite the fact that home sales were already on the decline in 2005.
[Worcester Telegram]
[WCVB]
[Milford Daily News]
- Foreclosures are rising sharply in Greater Boston and Massachusetts. There were more foreclosures in the first nine months of 2006 than in all of 2005, and as of this writing (in November 2006), Massachusetts is on track to break the all time record in 2006.
[Boston Globe]
[Lowell Sun]
- Boston and Massachusetts are the typical exceptions that people use to qualify their statements when they say that real estate prices don't fall. Boston and Massachusetts prices have fallen in the past, even in nominal terms (when adjusted for inflation, the fall is even more pronounced). Bear in mind that even if prices decline merely by the same percent that they have in the past, the leverage (a.k.a., margin or mortgage) used to purchase the homes must be taken into consideration - the substantially higher number of zero down and negative amortization loans will leave a lot of people with heavy losses and negative equity. [BusinessWeek] [Wall Street Journal (sub)]
- To compensate for property that fails to sell, real estate agents in Boston are falling back on the deceptive practice of canceling the listing in MLS and then creating a new listing so that the property appears as new to the market. There were 10,606 MLS cancellations in the first six months of 2005, up from 9,722 cancellations in the first six months of 2004 and 3,736 in 2001. "The number of canceled listings in Massachusetts has nearly tripled since 2001... In a recent spot check of houses for sale on MLS in Middlesex County, Barry Nystedt, president of the Massachusetts Association of Buyer Agents, said one in four listings canceled between May 25 and June 25 was recreated by the same firm with a new MLS number."
[Boston Globe]
>>> Discuss the Boston bubble now!
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National (US) Info
- Visit the Wikipedia article on the United States housing bubble for another excellent overview of the bubble on a national scale.
- It is actually now cheaper to rent than to buy in many areas even after you factor in accumulated equity and tax savings.
[The Economist]
- Yale professor Robert J. Shiller released the first edition of his prophetic book warning of a stock market bubble weeks before the stock market began its epic crash in 2000. He recently released an updated second edition in late February, 2005 with similar warnings of froth in the real estate market. This book is very highly recommended and is quite readable despite the complexity of the subject.
[Irrational Exuberance]
[Amazon.com]
- The current nationwide housing boom has been fueled in large part by historically low interest rates and an increase in the use of risky mortgages. Buyers may find that their monthly payments will skyrocket once the introductory period of their mortgage ends and the adjustable rate kicks in. In 2005, only $83 billion, or 1 percent, of mortgage debt will switch to an adjustable rate. In 2007, this number will leap to $1 trillion, or about 12 percent.
[Herald Tribune]
>>> Discuss the national and worldwide housing bubbles now!
Boston Bubble News & Interesting Links
| 2024-04-03 |
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The real estate industry on trial |
| 2023-01-09 |
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Mortgage buydowns are the hot new thing helping the housing market |
| 2023-01-06 |
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Home sellers are basically throwing money at buyers right now |
| 2022-04-27 |
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Crypto Mortgages Let Homebuyers Keep Bitcoin, Put Down Nothing |
| 2021-11-02 |
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Zillow Seeks to Sell 7,000 Homes for $2.8 Billion After Flipping Halt |
| 2021-02-20 |
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Rent Prices Are Falling in East Boston - Sort Of |
| 2020-08-19 |
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Renter's Market in Boston |
| 2020-04-13 |
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JPMorgan Chase to raise mortgage borrowing standards as economic outlook darkens |
| 2019-12-27 |
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Boston's housing market hits a tepid patch |
| 2019-11-20 |
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Boston home price futures, Nov 2019 update |
| 2019-03-25 |
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Trading activity on BOS Case Shiller home price index futures |
| 2019-01-25 |
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Boston housing futures drop ~3% for Nov 2020 |
| 2018-10-14 |
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Thousands line up for zero-down-payment, subprime mortgages |
| 2018-09-14 |
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Nouriel Roubini: We are due a recession in 2020 - and we will lack the tools to fight it |
| 2018-06-21 |
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Boston home price futures, Jun 2018 update |
| 2018-06-21 |
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Bezos, Buffett, Dimon health venture will be based in Boston |
| 2018-04-17 |
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2018 Q1 Boston Housing Futures Update - Slowing Appreciation Expected - ~Zero Real Appreciation in 2020? |
| 2018-03-19 |
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MassHousing reintroduces zero down mortgages |
| 2017-12-15 |
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Boston home price futures, Dec 2017 update |
| 2017-11-06 |
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Urban Institute: Boston May Be In A Real Estate Bubble |
| 2017-11-03 |
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Tax plan could hit Boston-area homebuyers. If it happens |
| 2017-10-16 |
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Boston home price futures, Oct 2017 update |
| 2017-04-11 |
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Boston's broken real estate market is getting worse |
| 2017-02-22 |
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BurkeyLoan to offer 120% LTV mortgage that also pays student loans |
| 2017-02-22 |
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Why Trump's Immigration Crackdown Could Sink U.S. Home Prices |
| 2017-02-21 |
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Fannie, Freddie shares dive after U.S. appeals court ruling |
| 2017-01-20 |
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HUD suspends FHA mortgage insurance rate cut an hour after Trump takes office |
| 2016-12-12 |
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Prepare Your Portfolio Now For "Trumpflation" |
| 2016-07-06 |
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Treasury yields plunge to all-time lows |
| 2016-04-29 |
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Boston housing inventory trends Apr 2007 - Mar 2016 |
| 2016-04-18 |
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Updated graph of Boston home price futures (nominal) |
| 2016-04-14 |
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Top broker warns Boston-area homebuyers to stop making "crazy offers" |
| 2016-04-08 |
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Boston suburban home prices are down in 2016 |
| 2016-01-23 |
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Forbes: Boston 3rd most overpriced US city |
| 2016-01-06 |
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Middlesex North 2015 Recording Statistics |
| 2016-01-06 |
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Mortgage Rate Watch: Farewell, 3 Percent |
| 2016-01-05 |
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Boston housing inventory trends Apr 2007 - Nov 2015 |
| 2016-01-01 |
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MA SFH Nov 2015 vs Nov 2014 - MAR: nominal median up 4.5%, volume up 8.1% |
| 2016-01-01 |
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MA SFH Nov 2015 vs Nov 2014 - Warren Group: nominal median up 2.2%, volume up 10.3% |
| 2015-12-31 |
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Boston-area real estate stocks disappoint in 2015 |
| 2015-12-30 |
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Surging house prices almost entirely responsible for growing returns on capital |
| 2015-12-16 |
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Fed raises rates for 1st time in nearly a decade |
| 2015-12-14 |
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Boston among metros that experts worry are headed toward a housing bubble |
| 2015-12-10 |
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Cancellation of expensive MBTA Green Line extension remains on the table for MassDOT |
| 2015-12-09 |
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Home prices are jumping in Boston suburbs that border even pricier towns |
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