• Boston Futures: For Greater Boston real estate prices from 1987 through the present and looking several years into the future, see the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Boston snapshot with futures (both before and after inflation). The futures markets are probably the most unbiased predictor of where housing prices are headed.
• Price/Income: For a gauge of how overpriced the market is, see the latest report on the Greater Boston price to income ratio.
• Inflation Adjusted: See the latest report on Massachusetts single family home prices for prices as typically reported by the local media but adjusted for inflation.
• Price/Rent: Comparing prices to rents can help illuminate an overpriced market since many hypothetical justifications for higher home prices should raise rents as well. See the latest report on the Boston MSA price to rent ratio.
• The population of the Greater Boston Area was declining as the housing market posted its most exceptional gains during the bubble. One of the fallacious arguments which was used to contest the existence of a housing bubble was that a growing population was pushing up the natural price of property. While that argument is flawed in general, it is especially wrong when the population is declining. [Boston Globe] [Boston Bubble]
• The Wall Street Journal has identified Boston as one of the metropolitan areas in the US where it is cheaper to rent than to buy. Their data goes from 2001, when it was already cheaper to rent, to 2004 when the difference was even more pronounced. The Economist also published an article showing that renting is cheaper, and although it does not focus on Boston, it is very thorough about including various expenses and tax benefits that the Wall Street Journal left out. [Wall Street Journal] [The Economist]
• Consumer Reports has rated real estate in the Boston market as "Overpriced" and pegged it at 24% over the affordable price as of Q4 2004. [Consumer Reports]
• The number of homes sold in Massachusetts has been plummeting. For the third quarter of 2006 (the most recently reported quarter as of this writing), home sales have fallen 23% compared with the same quarter one year earlier. This despite the fact that home sales were already on the decline in 2005. [Worcester Telegram] [WCVB] [Milford Daily News]
• Foreclosures are rising sharply in Greater Boston and Massachusetts. There were more foreclosures in the first nine months of 2006 than in all of 2005, and as of this writing (in November 2006), Massachusetts is on track to break the all time record in 2006. [Boston Globe] [Lowell Sun]
• Boston and Massachusetts are the typical exceptions that people use to qualify their statements when they say that real estate prices don't fall. Boston and Massachusetts prices have fallen in the past, even in nominal terms (when adjusted for inflation, the fall is even more pronounced). Bear in mind that even if prices decline merely by the same percent that they have in the past, the leverage (a.k.a., margin or mortgage) used to purchase the homes must be taken into consideration - the substantially higher number of zero down and negative amortization loans will leave a lot of people with heavy losses and negative equity. [BusinessWeek] [Wall Street Journal (sub)]
• To compensate for property that fails to sell, real estate agents in Boston are falling back on the deceptive practice of canceling the listing in MLS and then creating a new listing so that the property appears as new to the market. There were 10,606 MLS cancellations in the first six months of 2005, up from 9,722 cancellations in the first six months of 2004 and 3,736 in 2001. "The number of canceled listings in Massachusetts has nearly tripled since 2001... In a recent spot check of houses for sale on MLS in Middlesex County, Barry Nystedt, president of the Massachusetts Association of Buyer Agents, said one in four listings canceled between May 25 and June 25 was recreated by the same firm with a new MLS number." [Boston Globe]

• Visit the Wikipedia article on the United States housing bubble for another excellent overview of the bubble on a national scale.
• It is actually now cheaper to rent than to buy in many areas even after you factor in accumulated equity and tax savings. [The Economist]
• Yale professor Robert J. Shiller released the first edition of his prophetic book warning of a stock market bubble weeks before the stock market began its epic crash in 2000. He recently released an updated second edition in late February, 2005 with similar warnings of froth in the real estate market. This book is very highly recommended and is quite readable despite the complexity of the subject. [Irrational Exuberance] [Amazon.com]
• The current nationwide housing boom has been fueled in large part by historically low interest rates and an increase in the use of risky mortgages. Buyers may find that their monthly payments will skyrocket once the introductory period of their mortgage ends and the adjustable rate kicks in. In 2005, only $83 billion, or 1 percent, of mortgage debt will switch to an adjustable rate. In 2007, this number will leap to $1 trillion, or about 12 percent. [Herald Tribune]

Boston Bubble News & Interesting Links

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2007-07-31			Hub hedge fund will wind down; Amid subprime woes, Sowood says losses topped 50% in July
2007-07-31			Home prices fall further in May, Case-Shiller says. Boston down 4.3% YOY. MarketWatch: "Boston may have bottomed"
2007-07-31			Tangle of loans feeds foreclosure crisis - Borrowers can't tell where to turn for change in terms
2007-07-31			NY Times Editorial: any lingering hope that the housing downturn would be contained has vanished
2007-07-30			First-timers acquiring a fixer-upper often face foreclosure - local flips flop
2007-07-30			Latest reason housing rebound is supposedly right around the corner: immigrants - "assuming Congress doesn't impose further restrictions." AP article uses anecdotes from Billerica and Boston suburbs.
2007-07-30			Subprime contagion bleeds into Alt-A - American Home Stock Plunges 45% on Dividend Payment Delay
2007-07-30			Mass economy being pulled in opposite directions - strength in technology, science, knowledge, and health sectors offset by residential real estate weakness
2007-07-30			Patrick uses campaign funds for legal fees in Ameriquest Mortgage inquiry
2007-07-27			Subprime could create global crisis, economist says
2007-07-27			Boston Bubble Brief, Jun 2007: 2 years from peak, real prices down 9.37%, also below 2003 prices
2007-07-27			Report: Many towns shun CPA despite paying for it
2007-07-26			Moody's predicts foreclosure rate on subprime loans to hit 10% in 2008 and 20% by 2011
2007-07-26			Massachusetts Housing Market Blog: June Market Wrap - MAR & Warren group discrepancies have been compounding for 2 years
2007-07-26			Market correction in 2009? Watch NECN video & use this new tool
2007-07-26			Herald gives Deval heat over latest foreclosure proposal
2007-07-26			Update to Massachusetts' foreclosure-fighting plans
2007-07-26			Google Maps mashup - all Boston developments, with comments
2007-07-25			Condos creep out of downtown Haverhill; New development moves west of city's center
2007-07-25			Invitation to join "Bubble hour" before NECN interview today
2007-07-25			Another new Patrick administration foreclosure plan would make lenders pay - Residents who lose homes could get cash for moving and rent
2007-07-25			Feuding owners aim to sell NorthPoint
2007-07-24			No housing recovery til 2009: Countrywide
2007-07-24			2-, 3-family home sales worst in 16 years
2007-07-24			Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales: June 2007
2007-07-24			Dedham, Norwood home sales slump
2007-07-24			Rising foreclosures bad economic signal
2007-07-23			Wealthy towns getting most CPA benefit
2007-07-23			MA senate wants businesses to pay for employees' housing
2007-07-23			MAR on June 2007 vs June 2006 for MA: Continuing discrepancies with Warren Group. Nominal SFH prices down 1.6%, sales down 6%. Nominal condo prices up 4.4%, sales down 3.6%.
2007-07-23			Warren Group on June 2007 vs June 2006 for MA: Nominal SFH prices down 4.6%, sales down 8.3%. Nominal condo prices down 3.6%, sales down 12.3%.
2007-07-22			Globe Op-Ed by executive director of MA Mortgage Bankers Association on "subprime lending misconceptions"
2007-07-22			Globe Op-Ed by Mark Zandi: "so many made such bad decisions for such a long period that it is now our problem"
2007-07-20			Opinion piece in Massachusetts Lawyers Weekly predicts criminal investigations of attorneys, mortgage brokers, buyers and sellers
2007-07-20			The riskiest housing markets - Boston-Quincy retains spot on list
2007-07-19			Safe Haven offers anecdotal evidence of "Boston's Crumbling Economy"
2007-07-18			Natick residents, relatives and employees to get preference for affordable housing
2007-07-17			Massachusetts Housing Market Blog: March-April-May Market Wrap
2007-07-16			Subprime in Greater Boston: 70% for minorities, 16% for whites when incomes between $92K and $152K
2007-07-16			FDIC, Neighborworks(R) America Form National Partnership To Help Consumers at Risk of Foreclosure - Boston 1 of 9 areas targeted
2007-07-16			Announcing discussions for Boston Bubble news links - please report any RSS glitches (Google Reader users take note)
2007-07-15			Eagle-Tribune's view: Borrower bailout rewards irrational behavior
2007-07-15			Housing slump hampers shoppers
2007-07-13			June foreclosure stats for Middlesex County - foreclosures eased slightly compared to May
2007-07-13			Warren Group on May 2007 vs 2006 for Massachusetts: foreclosure auctions more than doubled, foreclosure actions up 39%
2007-07-12			Massachusetts homeowners sue Countrywide for racial bias in mortgage loans (separate from NAACP case)
2007-07-12			NAACP sues over risky loans - Boston cited as example of "systematic racism" regarding subprime loans
2007-07-11			Foreclosures against 2,200 Mass. borrowers postponed thanks to Attorney General Martha Coakley
2007-07-11			NAR releases yet another downward revision for their "forecast" of 2007, now claims that sales will pick up in late 2007 with prices following in 2008
2007-07-11			Mass. seeks to curb foreclosures with $250M refinancing fund, provided largely by Fannie Mae
2007-07-11			MA expected to unveil bailout plan for overextended borrowers today
2007-07-10			Flip This House coming to Boston
2007-07-10			The Housing Bubble Blog recaps several recent articles on Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island
2007-07-09			Mortgage resets: Record bill coming due, with a large portion in Massachusetts
2007-07-09			Worcester Business Journal: Housing downturn leads to survival of the fittest for real estate agents
2007-07-06			Average rents decrease in spring 2007 for Boston and Massachusetts
2007-07-06			Middlesex North Registry of Deeds reports June 2007 vs June 2006 stats - deeds down 10%, mortgages down 26%, foreclosure deeds up 188%
2007-07-05			Mass. business confidence falls
2007-07-05			Planners urge dramatic change in region's development patterns before open space is gone
2007-07-03			State Ethics Commission chief, who dropped investigation into Patrick's Ameriquest intervention, to step down
2007-07-03			Cape foreclosures hit 10-year high
2007-07-02			ForeclosuresMass.com Report: Foreclosure Filings Hit Record High in Massachusetts for Eighth Consecutive Month