• Boston Futures: For Greater Boston real estate prices from 1987 through the present and looking several years into the future, see the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Boston snapshot with futures (both before and after inflation). The futures markets are probably the most unbiased predictor of where housing prices are headed.
• Price/Income: For a gauge of how overpriced the market is, see the latest report on the Greater Boston price to income ratio.
• Inflation Adjusted: See the latest report on Massachusetts single family home prices for prices as typically reported by the local media but adjusted for inflation.
• Price/Rent: Comparing prices to rents can help illuminate an overpriced market since many hypothetical justifications for higher home prices should raise rents as well. See the latest report on the Boston MSA price to rent ratio.
• The population of the Greater Boston Area was declining as the housing market posted its most exceptional gains during the bubble. One of the fallacious arguments which was used to contest the existence of a housing bubble was that a growing population was pushing up the natural price of property. While that argument is flawed in general, it is especially wrong when the population is declining. [Boston Globe] [Boston Bubble]
• The Wall Street Journal has identified Boston as one of the metropolitan areas in the US where it is cheaper to rent than to buy. Their data goes from 2001, when it was already cheaper to rent, to 2004 when the difference was even more pronounced. The Economist also published an article showing that renting is cheaper, and although it does not focus on Boston, it is very thorough about including various expenses and tax benefits that the Wall Street Journal left out. [Wall Street Journal] [The Economist]
• Consumer Reports has rated real estate in the Boston market as "Overpriced" and pegged it at 24% over the affordable price as of Q4 2004. [Consumer Reports]
• The number of homes sold in Massachusetts has been plummeting. For the third quarter of 2006 (the most recently reported quarter as of this writing), home sales have fallen 23% compared with the same quarter one year earlier. This despite the fact that home sales were already on the decline in 2005. [Worcester Telegram] [WCVB] [Milford Daily News]
• Foreclosures are rising sharply in Greater Boston and Massachusetts. There were more foreclosures in the first nine months of 2006 than in all of 2005, and as of this writing (in November 2006), Massachusetts is on track to break the all time record in 2006. [Boston Globe] [Lowell Sun]
• Boston and Massachusetts are the typical exceptions that people use to qualify their statements when they say that real estate prices don't fall. Boston and Massachusetts prices have fallen in the past, even in nominal terms (when adjusted for inflation, the fall is even more pronounced). Bear in mind that even if prices decline merely by the same percent that they have in the past, the leverage (a.k.a., margin or mortgage) used to purchase the homes must be taken into consideration - the substantially higher number of zero down and negative amortization loans will leave a lot of people with heavy losses and negative equity. [BusinessWeek] [Wall Street Journal (sub)]
• To compensate for property that fails to sell, real estate agents in Boston are falling back on the deceptive practice of canceling the listing in MLS and then creating a new listing so that the property appears as new to the market. There were 10,606 MLS cancellations in the first six months of 2005, up from 9,722 cancellations in the first six months of 2004 and 3,736 in 2001. "The number of canceled listings in Massachusetts has nearly tripled since 2001... In a recent spot check of houses for sale on MLS in Middlesex County, Barry Nystedt, president of the Massachusetts Association of Buyer Agents, said one in four listings canceled between May 25 and June 25 was recreated by the same firm with a new MLS number." [Boston Globe]

• Visit the Wikipedia article on the United States housing bubble for another excellent overview of the bubble on a national scale.
• It is actually now cheaper to rent than to buy in many areas even after you factor in accumulated equity and tax savings. [The Economist]
• Yale professor Robert J. Shiller released the first edition of his prophetic book warning of a stock market bubble weeks before the stock market began its epic crash in 2000. He recently released an updated second edition in late February, 2005 with similar warnings of froth in the real estate market. This book is very highly recommended and is quite readable despite the complexity of the subject. [Irrational Exuberance] [Amazon.com]
• The current nationwide housing boom has been fueled in large part by historically low interest rates and an increase in the use of risky mortgages. Buyers may find that their monthly payments will skyrocket once the introductory period of their mortgage ends and the adjustable rate kicks in. In 2005, only $83 billion, or 1 percent, of mortgage debt will switch to an adjustable rate. In 2007, this number will leap to $1 trillion, or about 12 percent. [Herald Tribune]

Boston Bubble News & Interesting Links

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<< << <<			Show Recent Links
2009-05-29			S&P/Case-Shiller Boston Snapshot - May 26, 2009: Nominal prices hit expected bottom, according to futures
2009-05-29			Government allowing FHA borrowers to get advances on $8,000 tax credit
2009-05-29			Boston Bubble Brief, Apr 2009: MA SFH real median declines 12.43%, but decline is significantly smaller than normal
2009-05-29			Mortgage Market Locks Up
2009-05-29			Late US mortgage payments hit highest level since '72
2009-05-28			MA lawmakers take aim at property tax exemption for universities
2009-05-28			Lexington Place condos open their doors
2009-05-28			Mortgage Rates Soar As Quantitative Easing Fails
2009-05-28			As Ben Is Playing Mortgage Chicken, The 10 Year Is In The Woodshed
2009-05-28			Mass. banks outperform peers
2009-05-27			Japan's Lost Decade vs. The Credit Crisis
2009-05-27			Spring Sales Wilt
2009-05-26			Beantown Bust: Boston CSI and RPX March 2009 vs March 2008 (nominal): S&P/Case-Shiller down 8.01%, Radar Logic down 16.65%
2009-05-26			Mass. housing sales were "disappointing" in April - Warren Group: SFH median down 13.1% nominally, MAR confirms 13% fall
2009-05-25			Defaults on prime mortgages surge due to unemployment
2009-05-25			Ritz Carlton condo sales crack - Forty units available, only two bought this year
2009-05-25			MA vs. RI Unemployment April 2009: MA at 8.0%, RI at 11.1%
2009-05-23			MA SFH Apr 2009 vs Apr 2008: Nominal median down 12.5%, sales down 13.0%
2009-05-22			Bay State's recession may outlast the nation's
2009-05-22			Relentless job losses - Bay State unemployment at 8%, seen topping 9%
2009-05-21			Lien put on mall condos - Builder seeks $12.6M for Nouvelle at Natick
2009-05-21			Barney Frank Lies About ACORN
2009-05-21			MA mortgage foreclosure deeds, petitions decline
2009-05-20			Mass. Senate approves sales-tax increase
2009-05-20			Anecdotes of new construction, multiple bids, possible bottom, but no support from stats
2009-05-19			JPMorgan Chase to cut Massachusetts mortgage offices
2009-05-19			Growing seller realism, but not here in Massachusetts
2009-05-19			In downturn, Nantucket has its share of foreclosures, ailing businesses
2009-05-18			Boston high-end home sales fall by half
2009-05-18			More Mass land saved than developed, study finds
2009-05-17			The Blame Game - Regulators point away from themselves
2009-05-16			Housing Bubble Has Almost Completely Burst! But No Recovery In Sight
2009-05-15			Times Economics writer - not so good with personal finances
2009-05-15			Cambridge a bargain? You've got to be kidding
2009-05-15			Limit Not Quite the Sky for Boston Luxury Building
2009-05-15			Harvard To Freeze Property Purchases
2009-05-14			Massachusetts census numbers flat compared to other states
2009-05-14			Uncork that champagne - the Northeast housing market is hitting bottom!
2009-05-14			Seagate Technology to Cut 1,100 Jobs Globally - MA facilities potentially affected
2009-05-14			MA Democrats thrash out tax hike - cutbacks looming
2009-05-13			Homeowners Turn to Renting, Waiting for Market to Recover
2009-05-13			Residents express concern over looming $5.4 billion Massachusetts deficit
2009-05-12			MA AG reaches $60M agreement with Goldman Sachs Group to cut 700 mortgages up to 35%
2009-05-12			Spate of foreclosures seen as start of coming wave
2009-05-11			Boston brokers: Buyers wage bidding wars as real estate bottoms out
2009-05-11			Still there, foreclosed no longer - Nonprofits help occupants buy back homes
2009-05-10			The Curse of the Class of 2009 - Lower Wages for Up to a Decade
2009-05-10			Real-estate mystery fees under attack
2009-05-08			Warren Group: MA March foreclosure deeds down over '08
2009-05-07			Brookline housing sales still in a slump
2009-05-06			Zillow: 21.9% of US homeowners underwater, 16.3% of 2009 Boston MSA mortgages already underwater
2009-05-05			Forbes Best and Worst Cities for Jobs
2009-05-05			U.S. Home Prices May Be Lost for a Generation: John F. Wasik
2009-05-04			Middlesex North Registry of Deeds Apr 2009 Stats: 14% YOY decline in deeds, 57% YOY decline in foreclosure deeds
2009-05-04			Sovereign axes 265 more Mass. workers
2009-05-01			Boston Bubble Brief, Mar 2009: MA SFH real prices fall 19.18% YOY, largest decline on record