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Boston-Specific Info
- Boston Futures: For Greater Boston real estate prices from 1987 through the present and looking several years into the future, see the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Boston snapshot with futures (both before and after inflation). The futures markets are probably the most unbiased predictor of where housing prices are headed.
- Price/Income: For a gauge of how overpriced the market is, see the latest report on the Greater Boston price to income ratio.
- Inflation Adjusted: See the latest report on Massachusetts single family home prices for prices as typically reported by the local media but adjusted for inflation.
- Price/Rent: Comparing prices to rents can help illuminate an overpriced market since many hypothetical justifications for higher home prices should raise rents as well. See the latest report on the Boston MSA price to rent ratio.
- The population of the Greater Boston Area was declining as the housing market posted its most exceptional gains during the bubble. One of the fallacious arguments which was used to contest the existence of a housing bubble was that a growing population was pushing up the natural price of property. While that argument is flawed in general, it is especially wrong when the population is declining.
[Boston Globe]
[Boston Bubble]
- The Wall Street Journal has identified Boston as one of the metropolitan areas in the US where it is cheaper to rent than to buy. Their data goes from 2001, when it was already cheaper to rent, to 2004 when the difference was even more pronounced. The Economist also published an article showing that renting is cheaper, and although it does not focus on Boston, it is very thorough about including various expenses and tax benefits that the Wall Street Journal left out.
[Wall Street Journal]
[The Economist]
- Consumer Reports has rated real estate in the Boston market as "Overpriced" and pegged it at 24% over the affordable price as of Q4 2004.
[Consumer Reports]
- The number of homes sold in Massachusetts has been plummeting. For the third quarter of 2006 (the most recently reported quarter as of this writing), home sales have fallen 23% compared with the same quarter one year earlier. This despite the fact that home sales were already on the decline in 2005.
[Worcester Telegram]
[WCVB]
[Milford Daily News]
- Foreclosures are rising sharply in Greater Boston and Massachusetts. There were more foreclosures in the first nine months of 2006 than in all of 2005, and as of this writing (in November 2006), Massachusetts is on track to break the all time record in 2006.
[Boston Globe]
[Lowell Sun]
- Boston and Massachusetts are the typical exceptions that people use to qualify their statements when they say that real estate prices don't fall. Boston and Massachusetts prices have fallen in the past, even in nominal terms (when adjusted for inflation, the fall is even more pronounced). Bear in mind that even if prices decline merely by the same percent that they have in the past, the leverage (a.k.a., margin or mortgage) used to purchase the homes must be taken into consideration - the substantially higher number of zero down and negative amortization loans will leave a lot of people with heavy losses and negative equity. [BusinessWeek] [Wall Street Journal (sub)]
- To compensate for property that fails to sell, real estate agents in Boston are falling back on the deceptive practice of canceling the listing in MLS and then creating a new listing so that the property appears as new to the market. There were 10,606 MLS cancellations in the first six months of 2005, up from 9,722 cancellations in the first six months of 2004 and 3,736 in 2001. "The number of canceled listings in Massachusetts has nearly tripled since 2001... In a recent spot check of houses for sale on MLS in Middlesex County, Barry Nystedt, president of the Massachusetts Association of Buyer Agents, said one in four listings canceled between May 25 and June 25 was recreated by the same firm with a new MLS number."
[Boston Globe]
>>> Discuss the Boston bubble now!
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National (US) Info
- Visit the Wikipedia article on the United States housing bubble for another excellent overview of the bubble on a national scale.
- It is actually now cheaper to rent than to buy in many areas even after you factor in accumulated equity and tax savings.
[The Economist]
- Yale professor Robert J. Shiller released the first edition of his prophetic book warning of a stock market bubble weeks before the stock market began its epic crash in 2000. He recently released an updated second edition in late February, 2005 with similar warnings of froth in the real estate market. This book is very highly recommended and is quite readable despite the complexity of the subject.
[Irrational Exuberance]
[Amazon.com]
- The current nationwide housing boom has been fueled in large part by historically low interest rates and an increase in the use of risky mortgages. Buyers may find that their monthly payments will skyrocket once the introductory period of their mortgage ends and the adjustable rate kicks in. In 2005, only $83 billion, or 1 percent, of mortgage debt will switch to an adjustable rate. In 2007, this number will leap to $1 trillion, or about 12 percent.
[Herald Tribune]
>>> Discuss the national and worldwide housing bubbles now!
Boston Bubble News & Interesting Links
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Show Recent Links |
2008-11-28 |
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S&P/Case-Shiller Boston Snapshot: Nov 25, 2008 - Market pricing in further real decline of 17.24% for a 34.94% real decline from peak |
2008-11-28 |
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Boston Bubble Brief, Oct 2008: MA SFH real prices fall 14.06% YOY, continue below estimate for 2001 |
2008-11-26 |
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S&P/Case-Shiller Boston Sep 2008 vs Sep 2007: down 5.71% nominally, Boston condo index debuts with 2.90% YOY decline |
2008-11-26 |
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Middlesex North Registry of Deeds early stats for Nov 2008 vs Nov 2007: deeds up 8%, mortgages down 34%, foreclosure deeds up 26%, orders of notice down 25% |
2008-11-26 |
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Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: October 2008 |
2008-11-26 |
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Eviction spike leaving more Bay Staters out in the cold - Foreclosures driving homelessness |
2008-11-25 |
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Oct 2008 vs Oct 2007 nominal prices for MA SFH -- MAR: -10.6%, Warren Group: -13.9% |
2008-11-24 |
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Homeowners fall victim to mortgage scams |
2008-11-24 |
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Fed pledges top $7.4 trillion, but regulators refuse to disclose recipients or collateral |
2008-11-24 |
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Unemployment in MA and RI both rise, but spread widens |
2008-11-23 |
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FHA-backed loans: the next subprime crisis? |
2008-11-21 |
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Sharp rise forecast in Bay State job losses - Unemployment will reach 8.3% by end of decade, group says |
2008-11-21 |
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S&P to launch new Case-Shiller index for Boston condos |
2008-11-20 |
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Mass. unemployment rises to 5.5 percent |
2008-11-20 |
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Mass. foreclosure petitions drop in October |
2008-11-19 |
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Slow sales at Clarendon blamed on economy |
2008-11-19 |
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Heavy toll for East Boston |
2008-11-18 |
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Reduce your mortgage by not paying? |
2008-11-18 |
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Boston area neighborhoods with fastest price reductions |
2008-11-18 |
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Job cuts threaten Citi's expansion in Mass. |
2008-11-18 |
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NAR gives up on its blog |
2008-11-17 |
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Nouvell Monstre - Crescendo of pop-marketed luxury lifestyle and faux culture is symptomatic of failed system |
2008-11-14 |
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Melrose foreclosures increase dramatically in recent months |
2008-11-13 |
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Waltham tops Forbes magazine's home sale lists |
2008-11-13 |
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Natick mall condo buyers eye developer's money woes |
2008-11-12 |
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Zillow estimates 14.1% of Hub owners are under water |
2008-11-12 |
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Zillow estimates Boston nominal prices fell 1% annualized each year for the last 5 years, 1/3 of US sellers in last year have lost money |
2008-11-12 |
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Natick Collection owner risks default (recall the Nouvelle is attached) |
2008-11-11 |
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Fan Pier work stalls, leaving future tenant Vertex in bind |
2008-11-10 |
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Mounting job losses fueling US foreclosures |
2008-11-07 |
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NARcasting The Future: November 2008 - Yun: "we're still in a broad period of stabilization" |
2008-11-07 |
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Globe chronicling experiment of group trying to flip a property starting now |
2008-11-06 |
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Boston 2009 Forecast: -12.5% |
2008-11-06 |
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Tonight: Moses Greeley Parker Lecture on the Foreclosure Crisis |
2008-11-06 |
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$1B budget deficit looms, despite spending cuts and defeat of ballot question to eliminate income tax |
2008-11-05 |
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Middlesex North Registry of Deeds Oct 2008 Stats: "Situation is deteriorating," deeds down 9%, mortgages down 25%, foreclosures up 11%, orders of notice up 48% |
2008-11-05 |
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The Arlington Artifice: September 2008 - Lowest sales since 1991, year-to-date median continues decline |
2008-11-05 |
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Boston area cities, towns, and neighborhoods with most price reductions |
2008-11-05 |
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Complaints of too many for-sale signs on the rise in the Back Bay |
2008-11-04 |
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Massachusetts voters have rejected almost two-thirds of overrides this year |
2008-11-03 |
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Marked down to move - A battered housing market is forcing sellers in top-tier communities to cut prices |
2008-11-03 |
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House valuations drop, but tax bills won't |
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