• Boston Futures: For Greater Boston real estate prices from 1987 through the present and looking several years into the future, see the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Boston snapshot with futures (both before and after inflation). The futures markets are probably the most unbiased predictor of where housing prices are headed.
• Price/Income: For a gauge of how overpriced the market is, see the latest report on the Greater Boston price to income ratio.
• Inflation Adjusted: See the latest report on Massachusetts single family home prices for prices as typically reported by the local media but adjusted for inflation.
• Price/Rent: Comparing prices to rents can help illuminate an overpriced market since many hypothetical justifications for higher home prices should raise rents as well. See the latest report on the Boston MSA price to rent ratio.
• The population of the Greater Boston Area was declining as the housing market posted its most exceptional gains during the bubble. One of the fallacious arguments which was used to contest the existence of a housing bubble was that a growing population was pushing up the natural price of property. While that argument is flawed in general, it is especially wrong when the population is declining. [Boston Globe] [Boston Bubble]
• The Wall Street Journal has identified Boston as one of the metropolitan areas in the US where it is cheaper to rent than to buy. Their data goes from 2001, when it was already cheaper to rent, to 2004 when the difference was even more pronounced. The Economist also published an article showing that renting is cheaper, and although it does not focus on Boston, it is very thorough about including various expenses and tax benefits that the Wall Street Journal left out. [Wall Street Journal] [The Economist]
• Consumer Reports has rated real estate in the Boston market as "Overpriced" and pegged it at 24% over the affordable price as of Q4 2004. [Consumer Reports]
• The number of homes sold in Massachusetts has been plummeting. For the third quarter of 2006 (the most recently reported quarter as of this writing), home sales have fallen 23% compared with the same quarter one year earlier. This despite the fact that home sales were already on the decline in 2005. [Worcester Telegram] [WCVB] [Milford Daily News]
• Foreclosures are rising sharply in Greater Boston and Massachusetts. There were more foreclosures in the first nine months of 2006 than in all of 2005, and as of this writing (in November 2006), Massachusetts is on track to break the all time record in 2006. [Boston Globe] [Lowell Sun]
• Boston and Massachusetts are the typical exceptions that people use to qualify their statements when they say that real estate prices don't fall. Boston and Massachusetts prices have fallen in the past, even in nominal terms (when adjusted for inflation, the fall is even more pronounced). Bear in mind that even if prices decline merely by the same percent that they have in the past, the leverage (a.k.a., margin or mortgage) used to purchase the homes must be taken into consideration - the substantially higher number of zero down and negative amortization loans will leave a lot of people with heavy losses and negative equity. [BusinessWeek] [Wall Street Journal (sub)]
• To compensate for property that fails to sell, real estate agents in Boston are falling back on the deceptive practice of canceling the listing in MLS and then creating a new listing so that the property appears as new to the market. There were 10,606 MLS cancellations in the first six months of 2005, up from 9,722 cancellations in the first six months of 2004 and 3,736 in 2001. "The number of canceled listings in Massachusetts has nearly tripled since 2001... In a recent spot check of houses for sale on MLS in Middlesex County, Barry Nystedt, president of the Massachusetts Association of Buyer Agents, said one in four listings canceled between May 25 and June 25 was recreated by the same firm with a new MLS number." [Boston Globe]

• Visit the Wikipedia article on the United States housing bubble for another excellent overview of the bubble on a national scale.
• It is actually now cheaper to rent than to buy in many areas even after you factor in accumulated equity and tax savings. [The Economist]
• Yale professor Robert J. Shiller released the first edition of his prophetic book warning of a stock market bubble weeks before the stock market began its epic crash in 2000. He recently released an updated second edition in late February, 2005 with similar warnings of froth in the real estate market. This book is very highly recommended and is quite readable despite the complexity of the subject. [Irrational Exuberance] [Amazon.com]
• The current nationwide housing boom has been fueled in large part by historically low interest rates and an increase in the use of risky mortgages. Buyers may find that their monthly payments will skyrocket once the introductory period of their mortgage ends and the adjustable rate kicks in. In 2005, only $83 billion, or 1 percent, of mortgage debt will switch to an adjustable rate. In 2007, this number will leap to $1 trillion, or about 12 percent. [Herald Tribune]

Boston Bubble News & Interesting Links

Get Updates: RSS Feed (What's RSS? -- RSS Readers: Feedly, Firefox) Suggest a Link: News & Reference Suggestion Forum Legend: Info/Broken? Discuss

<< << <<			Show Recent Links
2008-03-31			"Hot" Arlington drops to 9 home sales in February - lowest volume since 1991 recession
2008-03-31			Globe's victims being helped by Senator Kerry (and more accurately by taxpayers) may be victims of their own doing
2008-03-31			Stop the Mortgage Bailout (for both lenders and borrowers)
2008-03-31			Freddie Mac's Nothaft: "I don't think we're going to see any improvement in the national house-price matrix until 2010."
2008-03-31			Timothy Warren Jr.: Housing recovery might start in 2009
2008-03-28			Boston Bubble Brief, Feb 2008: Real MA SFH prices down 8.24% YOY, 24.06% below peak, 4th straight month of deepening declines, lowest Feb on record
2008-03-28			Massachusetts investigating REDC homes auction - Foreclosures may not have been final
2008-03-28			New leader of Realtors, Charles McMillan, sees turnaround in late '08
2008-03-27			The Subprime Crisis is Just Starting
2008-03-27			ForeclosuresMass.com forecasts Massachusetts foreclosure filings to exceed 34,500 in 2008, surpassing 2007 by at least 15 - 25%
2008-03-27			Middlesex North Registry of Deeds year-to-date stats: documents down 8%, deeds down 19%, foreclosure deeds up 86%
2008-03-27			First-time homebuyer workshop promotes buying now. Martin O'Sullivan: "Now is a great time to buy. Interest rates are low and property values have corrected themselves."
2008-03-26			Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: February 2008
2008-03-26			Boston-area housing slump hits 28 months (counting from nominal peak) - Prices are down 11% from September '05 through last January
2008-03-25			S&P/Case-Shiller Boston down 3.5% YOY for Jan
2008-03-25			February saw worst Mass. drop in 18 years
2008-03-25			Methuen proposal will make banks register foreclosed buildings
2008-03-25			A (Graphical) History Of Wrong Predictions By The Chief Economists of the National Association of Realtors
2008-03-24			MA legislators announce 3 bills aimed at mortgage crisis, one calling for 6 month moratorium on foreclosures. Cheryl Lawrence calls situation "Katrina without the water."
2008-03-24			Warren Group on Feb 2008 vs Feb 2007: MA SFH nominal prices down 9%, sales down 19%
2008-03-24			National home resales up first time in seven months (Northeast up 11.3%), Median sales prices plunge record 8.2% in past year
2008-03-24			FHFB authorizes Fannie and Freddie to increase purchase of agency MBS to 600% of capital, up from 300%
2008-03-23			As housing crisis deepens, some choose to just walk away - Report from Attleboro on a statewide problem
2008-03-22			Roughly a quarter of local REDC auction winners from November still waiting for homes even as REDC preps for another Boston auction on March 29th
2008-03-22			Columbus Center hits another snag - Lease on hold after developer asks for construction delay
2008-03-21			Feb 2008 MA SFH sales fall 22.9% YOY, median price down 4.6% nominally. Condo sales down 34.6%, median price down 6.7% nominally.
2008-03-21			Mass. loses 700 jobs in Feb.
2008-03-20			Of towns in Boston area with good schools, Swampscott has cheapest homes
2008-03-20			President of the South Shore Chamber of Commerce optimistic on local economy
2008-03-19			Subprime Mortgage Meltdown Renews Urban Blight - Lawrence used as main example
2008-03-19			Mortgage rates may keep rising
2008-03-19			Tent cities spring up in LA (video)
2008-03-18			George Mason Prof says housing price increases in places like Boston were supported by fundamentals like increasing population (despite the matter of population declining in Boston during the bubble)
2008-03-18			A blogger's exchange with Barney Frank on the higher GSE loan limits
2008-03-17			Globe asks: how does relentless bullishness impact your trust of real estate agents?
2008-03-17			Herald Op-Ed: Housing market needs reality, not distortion
2008-03-16			Globe recommends ARMs, even with fixed rates near historical lows, because they are cheaper in the beginning
2008-03-15			Hendry Street condo bought two years ago for $299K back on market for $55K after taxpayers paid $10K to maintain it in 2007
2008-03-15			Recession is here, economist declares - Feldstein heads key forecasting group Slump may be worst since World War II
2008-03-14			Foreclosure Prevention Workshop To Be Held on Mar 29 - Tsongas Holds Workshop For Families In 5th District
2008-03-14			California Realtors blame media for downturn, propose ad boycott until newspapers return to positive articles
2008-03-13			Multifamily foreclosures way up - Area has its share in mortgage crisis; worst may be to come
2008-03-13			Globe: In harsh jobs market, tech companies an oasis
2008-03-12			Fed lending $200B to banks, using undesirable mortgages as collateral
2008-03-12			Moody's, S&P Defer Cuts on AAA Subprime, Hiding Loss
2008-03-11			Bankruptcy filings in MA have surged 22% this year - Rise in state filings tied to housing crisis
2008-03-11			Home woes multiply - Lenders keep rates high (relatively speaking) as Fed cuts them
2008-03-10			Baby Boomers will start selling their houses in MA at age 55 according to study
2008-03-10			South Middlesex Foreclosure update for Jan/Feb 2008: Foreclosure deeds up 194%, orders of notice up 21%
2008-03-09			AG charges Lehi Mortgage Services Inc. in Quincy with fraud
2008-03-09			Mortgage crisis CEOs made $460M, claiming this was tied to performance before crisis, ignoring that it was unsustainable lending practices which caused both the "performance" and the crisis
2008-03-09			Middlesex North Registry of Deeds: Foreclosure update for Jan and Feb 2008
2008-03-08			Globe's latest housing "victim" actually a flipper?
2008-03-08			Limits lifted on US-backed mortgages - Government raises maximum in Boston area to $523,750
2008-03-07			Goldman Sachs predicts total nominal price declines of 15% without recession, 30% with recession; underwater mortgages 21% without recession, 39% with recession
2008-03-07			Judge rules lender can be enjoined from foreclosing in MA because "it is both imprudent and unfair to approve a mortgage loan that the borrower cannot reasonably be expected repay (sic) if housing prices were to fall"
2008-03-07			1 in 18 MA borrowers behind by at least 30 days on mortgage
2008-03-07			Boston Fed's Rosengren: housing market should start to stabilize by end of 2008 if national economy picks up speed as expected
2008-03-07			6% of MA homes for sale are bank owned foreclosures. Short sales not included.
2008-03-07			NARcasting The Future: March 2008 - Yun: "price declines... are inducing buyers to return to the marketplace"
2008-03-06			Buyer fraud rampant in bubble-time purchases - 15-20% of counseling cases in LA involve fraud, Boston analyst describes straw buyers
2008-03-06			MA foreclosures selling at around 80 cents on the dollar
2008-03-06			Boston Fed's Rosengren joins call for mortgage value writedowns
2008-03-06			In one year, foreclosure rate tripled - Cities taking action in bid to prevent blight
2008-03-05			Majority of Bay State employers see recession in 2008
2008-03-05			Editorial: Better than a bailout - allow mortgage adjustment in bankruptcy
2008-03-04			National City Housing Valuation Analysis classifies Boston area as "Fairly Valued"
2008-03-04			NAR's Lawrence Yun on New England: ""By 2009, I think we will be back to normal. In that case, people can anticipate a 4 percent to 6 percent price appreciation."
2008-03-04			The Arlington Artifice: January 2008
2008-03-04			Forecast: No housing recovery until mid-2009 - Boston-area nominal prices could fall 8% more
2008-03-04			Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to require independent assessors
2008-03-04			How a Bubble Stayed Under the Radar - The herd mentality can even apply to rational actors
2008-03-03			Alicia Sasser of Boston Fed: MA home prices to keep falling in 2008
2008-03-03			Prudential Unlimited Realty in Brookline allegedly listed properties with falsely inflated square footage
2008-03-03			Globe dubs Gen Xers "some of the savviest home buyers around," but researching their example suggests otherwise
2008-03-03			Housing becoming affordable on Cape Cod? 26 homes listed at prices between $160,000 to $199,000
2008-03-03			Governor Patrick's mortgage costs $324K per year, more than twice his gross salary