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Boston-Specific Info
- Boston Futures: For Greater Boston real estate prices from 1987 through the present and looking several years into the future, see the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Boston snapshot with futures (both before and after inflation). The futures markets are probably the most unbiased predictor of where housing prices are headed.
- Price/Income: For a gauge of how overpriced the market is, see the latest report on the Greater Boston price to income ratio.
- Inflation Adjusted: See the latest report on Massachusetts single family home prices for prices as typically reported by the local media but adjusted for inflation.
- Price/Rent: Comparing prices to rents can help illuminate an overpriced market since many hypothetical justifications for higher home prices should raise rents as well. See the latest report on the Boston MSA price to rent ratio.
- The population of the Greater Boston Area was declining as the housing market posted its most exceptional gains during the bubble. One of the fallacious arguments which was used to contest the existence of a housing bubble was that a growing population was pushing up the natural price of property. While that argument is flawed in general, it is especially wrong when the population is declining.
[Boston Globe]
[Boston Bubble]
- The Wall Street Journal has identified Boston as one of the metropolitan areas in the US where it is cheaper to rent than to buy. Their data goes from 2001, when it was already cheaper to rent, to 2004 when the difference was even more pronounced. The Economist also published an article showing that renting is cheaper, and although it does not focus on Boston, it is very thorough about including various expenses and tax benefits that the Wall Street Journal left out.
[Wall Street Journal]
[The Economist]
- Consumer Reports has rated real estate in the Boston market as "Overpriced" and pegged it at 24% over the affordable price as of Q4 2004.
[Consumer Reports]
- The number of homes sold in Massachusetts has been plummeting. For the third quarter of 2006 (the most recently reported quarter as of this writing), home sales have fallen 23% compared with the same quarter one year earlier. This despite the fact that home sales were already on the decline in 2005.
[Worcester Telegram]
[WCVB]
[Milford Daily News]
- Foreclosures are rising sharply in Greater Boston and Massachusetts. There were more foreclosures in the first nine months of 2006 than in all of 2005, and as of this writing (in November 2006), Massachusetts is on track to break the all time record in 2006.
[Boston Globe]
[Lowell Sun]
- Boston and Massachusetts are the typical exceptions that people use to qualify their statements when they say that real estate prices don't fall. Boston and Massachusetts prices have fallen in the past, even in nominal terms (when adjusted for inflation, the fall is even more pronounced). Bear in mind that even if prices decline merely by the same percent that they have in the past, the leverage (a.k.a., margin or mortgage) used to purchase the homes must be taken into consideration - the substantially higher number of zero down and negative amortization loans will leave a lot of people with heavy losses and negative equity. [BusinessWeek] [Wall Street Journal (sub)]
- To compensate for property that fails to sell, real estate agents in Boston are falling back on the deceptive practice of canceling the listing in MLS and then creating a new listing so that the property appears as new to the market. There were 10,606 MLS cancellations in the first six months of 2005, up from 9,722 cancellations in the first six months of 2004 and 3,736 in 2001. "The number of canceled listings in Massachusetts has nearly tripled since 2001... In a recent spot check of houses for sale on MLS in Middlesex County, Barry Nystedt, president of the Massachusetts Association of Buyer Agents, said one in four listings canceled between May 25 and June 25 was recreated by the same firm with a new MLS number."
[Boston Globe]
>>> Discuss the Boston bubble now!
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National (US) Info
- Visit the Wikipedia article on the United States housing bubble for another excellent overview of the bubble on a national scale.
- It is actually now cheaper to rent than to buy in many areas even after you factor in accumulated equity and tax savings.
[The Economist]
- Yale professor Robert J. Shiller released the first edition of his prophetic book warning of a stock market bubble weeks before the stock market began its epic crash in 2000. He recently released an updated second edition in late February, 2005 with similar warnings of froth in the real estate market. This book is very highly recommended and is quite readable despite the complexity of the subject.
[Irrational Exuberance]
[Amazon.com]
- The current nationwide housing boom has been fueled in large part by historically low interest rates and an increase in the use of risky mortgages. Buyers may find that their monthly payments will skyrocket once the introductory period of their mortgage ends and the adjustable rate kicks in. In 2005, only $83 billion, or 1 percent, of mortgage debt will switch to an adjustable rate. In 2007, this number will leap to $1 trillion, or about 12 percent.
[Herald Tribune]
>>> Discuss the national and worldwide housing bubbles now!
Boston Bubble News & Interesting Links
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Show Recent Links |
2008-05-30 |
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Boston Bubble Brief, Apr 2007: MA SFH real median falls 12.18% YOY, largest YOY fall on record, lowest April on record |
2008-05-30 |
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The Arlington Artifice: April 2008 - still unexceptional |
2008-05-30 |
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At current pace, 7 in 1000 residential properties in MA will be foreclosed this year |
2008-05-30 |
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America's house prices are falling even faster than during the Great Depression |
2008-05-30 |
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Massachusetts foreclosure deeds soar in April, up 187.5% YOY |
2008-05-29 |
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S&P/Case-Shiller Boston Snapshot - May 27, 2008: 2012 Q3 futures price in further decline in Boston housing prices of 7.28% nominal, 20.44% real |
2008-05-28 |
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Foreclosure court pitched for state |
2008-05-28 |
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Foreclosures rival sales - In urban hot spots, numbers nearly equal |
2008-05-28 |
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Market speaks: Mass. home values in record slide |
2008-05-28 |
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Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: April 2008 |
2008-05-27 |
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Time to Buy? The Conversion of a Renter |
2008-05-27 |
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In Housing Market, Even the Strong Are Weakening |
2008-05-27 |
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March S&P/Case-Shiller Index for Boston posts 5.92% nominal YOY decline |
2008-05-27 |
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April MA SFH nominal median YOY changes - Warren Group: -12%, MAR: -8.7% |
2008-05-27 |
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NPR - Trio of stories on US housing |
2008-05-26 |
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Delinquent Loans Deepen For Central Mass. Banks |
2008-05-23 |
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MA Apr Preview: SFH sales down 15.8% YOY, nominal prices down 8.7% |
2008-05-23 |
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Home fairs target working-class buyers |
2008-05-22 |
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OFHEO home price index posts largest-ever decline |
2008-05-22 |
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Preliminary May foreclosure stats from Middlesex North Registry of Deeds - "turnaround for real estate is nowhere in sight" |
2008-05-21 |
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Massachusetts regulator charges man ran fake real estate fund |
2008-05-21 |
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Developers nix condos, build rentals in Southie |
2008-05-20 |
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Litany of woes driving many residents out of Massachusetts |
2008-05-20 |
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Surf's up, prices down - Nantucket's luxury home owners offer deals |
2008-05-20 |
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Low-Income Renters to Pay for Housing Bailout |
2008-05-20 |
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Frank blames Fed, Greenspan for subprime woes |
2008-05-19 |
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As homes foreclose in U.S., squatters move in (Brockton used as example) |
2008-05-18 |
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Report: Mass. consumer confidence at lowest point since 1991 |
2008-05-18 |
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$1M mortgage mess: No English? No income? No problem! How a single Dorchester mother in public housing got a million in mortgages |
2008-05-18 |
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Nouvelle sales slowed by market, lending problems |
2008-05-17 |
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11-member ring of Boston lawyers, mortgage brokers and others arrested in mortgage fraud scam |
2008-05-16 |
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In Lowell, overall foreclosure rate has doubled in 2008 but condo foreclosure rate has tripled |
2008-05-16 |
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Mass. unemployment rate falls, despite job losses |
2008-05-15 |
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More square footage false advertising in Boston area |
2008-05-15 |
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Boston Still Busting After All These Years - A graphical comparison to previous bust |
2008-05-14 |
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Boston Fed chief: Wall Street underestimated subprime risks |
2008-05-14 |
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Boston area auction by Calif. firm (REDC) hits snag again - Bidder says foreclosure was incomplete for home on the block |
2008-05-14 |
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Feds laud Hub efforts - Menino's foreclosure crisis efforts called "very effective" |
2008-05-13 |
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Toney town's mansion sales tank - With 30 percent drop, sellers bargain to make deals |
2008-05-13 |
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Trying to Avoid Foreclosure |
2008-05-12 |
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Lenders offer little help in foreclosures - Companies ill-equipped to handle surge of distressed homeowners |
2008-05-12 |
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The furry faces of foreclosure |
2008-05-10 |
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In mortgage market, "walkaway" homeowners may be urban myth |
2008-05-09 |
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NorthPoint buyer quits deal - Other bidders eye 40-acre project site |
2008-05-09 |
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Professor Case: Real estate market ready for rebound |
2008-05-08 |
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The Back Bay Bubble - List Price vs. Past Sales |
2008-05-08 |
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The Economist: American housing - Map of misery |
2008-05-08 |
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Foreclosures soaring in some of Massachusetts' wealthiest towns |
2008-05-08 |
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Foreclosures hurt many renters, study says |
2008-05-08 |
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Bush threatens to veto Barney Frank's housing bailout bill |
2008-05-08 |
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NARcasting The Future: May 2008 - Yun predicts US prices to fall 2.4% in 2008 |
2008-05-07 |
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Mass. foreclosure activity continues to surge - Up 38% YOY in 2008 Q1 |
2008-05-07 |
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Map of recent Boston area buyers underwater by town |
2008-05-07 |
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David Lereah does an about face: "We're not at the bottom... This thing is going to get worse before it gets better." However, also repeats incorrect claims that nobody saw it coming. |
2008-05-06 |
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Zillow: Boston nominal housing prices down 16% from peak, at 2003 levels |
2008-05-06 |
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Doubts Raised on Big Backers of Mortgages, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac |
2008-05-06 |
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Mass. upholds ruling to halt Fremont foreclosures |
2008-05-06 |
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Frank to lenders: Take losses or face stiffer regulation |
2008-05-05 |
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Gas prices up, housing prices down |
2008-05-05 |
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Nouvelle at Natick update: both sides suffering in symbiotic relationship between mall and condos |
2008-05-02 |
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Boston Bubble Brief, Mar 2008: Record YOY decline of 11.90% in MA SFH real median, lowest March on record |
2008-05-02 |
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The Arlington Artifice: March 2008 - Sales down dramatically |
2008-05-02 |
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Condo sales in Boston drop off - Prices are also down in a market formerly seen as bulletproof |
2008-05-02 |
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Middlesex North Registry of Deeds Recording Statistics April 2008 vs April 2007: deeds and mortgages both down 17%, foreclosures up 130%, orders of notice down 11% |
2008-05-01 |
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Post-bubble planning: suggestions for future direction of bostonbubble.com? |
2008-05-01 |
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Construction Slump Hits Home |
2008-05-01 |
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New MA law extends foreclosure notification period |
2008-05-01 |
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Trend of reporting that bad state-wide numbers don't apply locally runs contrary to actual data |
2008-05-01 |
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President-Elect of Worcester Regional Association of Realtors: "(Veteran investors) believe we are at the bottom and are investing" |
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