• Boston Futures: For Greater Boston real estate prices from 1987 through the present and looking several years into the future, see the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Boston snapshot with futures (both before and after inflation). The futures markets are probably the most unbiased predictor of where housing prices are headed.
• Price/Income: For a gauge of how overpriced the market is, see the latest report on the Greater Boston price to income ratio.
• Inflation Adjusted: See the latest report on Massachusetts single family home prices for prices as typically reported by the local media but adjusted for inflation.
• Price/Rent: Comparing prices to rents can help illuminate an overpriced market since many hypothetical justifications for higher home prices should raise rents as well. See the latest report on the Boston MSA price to rent ratio.
• The population of the Greater Boston Area was declining as the housing market posted its most exceptional gains during the bubble. One of the fallacious arguments which was used to contest the existence of a housing bubble was that a growing population was pushing up the natural price of property. While that argument is flawed in general, it is especially wrong when the population is declining. [Boston Globe] [Boston Bubble]
• The Wall Street Journal has identified Boston as one of the metropolitan areas in the US where it is cheaper to rent than to buy. Their data goes from 2001, when it was already cheaper to rent, to 2004 when the difference was even more pronounced. The Economist also published an article showing that renting is cheaper, and although it does not focus on Boston, it is very thorough about including various expenses and tax benefits that the Wall Street Journal left out. [Wall Street Journal] [The Economist]
• Consumer Reports has rated real estate in the Boston market as "Overpriced" and pegged it at 24% over the affordable price as of Q4 2004. [Consumer Reports]
• The number of homes sold in Massachusetts has been plummeting. For the third quarter of 2006 (the most recently reported quarter as of this writing), home sales have fallen 23% compared with the same quarter one year earlier. This despite the fact that home sales were already on the decline in 2005. [Worcester Telegram] [WCVB] [Milford Daily News]
• Foreclosures are rising sharply in Greater Boston and Massachusetts. There were more foreclosures in the first nine months of 2006 than in all of 2005, and as of this writing (in November 2006), Massachusetts is on track to break the all time record in 2006. [Boston Globe] [Lowell Sun]
• Boston and Massachusetts are the typical exceptions that people use to qualify their statements when they say that real estate prices don't fall. Boston and Massachusetts prices have fallen in the past, even in nominal terms (when adjusted for inflation, the fall is even more pronounced). Bear in mind that even if prices decline merely by the same percent that they have in the past, the leverage (a.k.a., margin or mortgage) used to purchase the homes must be taken into consideration - the substantially higher number of zero down and negative amortization loans will leave a lot of people with heavy losses and negative equity. [BusinessWeek] [Wall Street Journal (sub)]
• To compensate for property that fails to sell, real estate agents in Boston are falling back on the deceptive practice of canceling the listing in MLS and then creating a new listing so that the property appears as new to the market. There were 10,606 MLS cancellations in the first six months of 2005, up from 9,722 cancellations in the first six months of 2004 and 3,736 in 2001. "The number of canceled listings in Massachusetts has nearly tripled since 2001... In a recent spot check of houses for sale on MLS in Middlesex County, Barry Nystedt, president of the Massachusetts Association of Buyer Agents, said one in four listings canceled between May 25 and June 25 was recreated by the same firm with a new MLS number." [Boston Globe]

• Visit the Wikipedia article on the United States housing bubble for another excellent overview of the bubble on a national scale.
• It is actually now cheaper to rent than to buy in many areas even after you factor in accumulated equity and tax savings. [The Economist]
• Yale professor Robert J. Shiller released the first edition of his prophetic book warning of a stock market bubble weeks before the stock market began its epic crash in 2000. He recently released an updated second edition in late February, 2005 with similar warnings of froth in the real estate market. This book is very highly recommended and is quite readable despite the complexity of the subject. [Irrational Exuberance] [Amazon.com]
• The current nationwide housing boom has been fueled in large part by historically low interest rates and an increase in the use of risky mortgages. Buyers may find that their monthly payments will skyrocket once the introductory period of their mortgage ends and the adjustable rate kicks in. In 2005, only $83 billion, or 1 percent, of mortgage debt will switch to an adjustable rate. In 2007, this number will leap to $1 trillion, or about 12 percent. [Herald Tribune]

Boston Bubble News & Interesting Links

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2010-08-31			MA foreclosures spike ~80% YOY in July - Vincent M. Valvo: increasing foreclosure activity likely for next few months
2010-08-31			MA months of supply jumps from 6.4 to 9.9
2010-08-30			W Boston faces foreclosure
2010-08-27			Boston Bubble Wrap: July 2010
2010-08-27			Mass. misery on the rise
2010-08-26			Boston buyers still wildly irrational, expect 12% yearly appreciation over next decade
2010-08-25			US July new home sales fall to slowest pace on record
2010-08-24			MA SFH Jul 2010 vs Jul 2009 - MAR: nominal median up 7.4%, volume down 28%; Warren Group: nominal median up 3%, volume down 26%
2010-08-23			Housing Fades as a Means to Build Wealth, Analysts Say
2010-08-23			Economists blew the bubble
2010-08-23			Refinancing boom no blast for Mass. banks
2010-08-20			Private sector employers add another 19,000 jobs in Massachusetts
2010-08-20			Nearly 50% leave Obama mortgage-aid program
2010-08-19			Boston Fed's self-exoneration for lack of bubble foresight is bogus
2010-08-18			CME market maker fields questions on Boston housing futures contracts
2010-08-18			Frank says abolish Freddie and Fannie
2010-08-17			Mass. Realtor sentiment plunges 25.72% YOY
2010-08-17			Text of Geithner's speech on Fannie and Freddie
2010-08-17			Somerville real estate broker charged with embezzlement
2010-08-17			Mortgage eligibility at heart of Fannie, Freddie debate
2010-08-16			A special case - The demand for financial assets is not like the demand for iPods
2010-08-16			MLSPIN: Bay State home sales dive 30% in July, but nominal median up 6%
2010-08-16			Only 36.1% of home sale attempts were successful in Suffolk county in 2009
2010-08-13			Barney Frank: "I work closely with the National Association of Realtors. So I'll say the policies I support are ones realtors support."
2010-08-13			Locally, foreclosures still a problem
2010-08-13			New wave of foreclosures
2010-08-12			Mortgage rates hit low of 4.44%
2010-08-11			The return to Mass. of no money down mortgages
2010-08-11			Rise in executions evidence that bill for decade of consumer credit is still outstanding
2010-08-10			Rentals in Boston area harder to find, afford
2010-08-10			Mortgage giants' fate unclear - US weighs value of huge subsidies
2010-08-10			Bachus Seeks Hearing on Fannie Mae Whistleblower
2010-08-09			Patrick signs foreclosure relief bill into law
2010-08-07			Pending condo sales in East Cambridge reveal market weakness
2010-08-06			Patrick signs sweeping economic bill
2010-08-06			15-year mortgage rate sinks below 4%
2010-08-05			Aid bill contains $655m for Mass.
2010-08-05			Developer plans two 15-story towers in Fenway
2010-08-04			Middlesex North Registry of Deeds, Jul 2010: Deeds down 12%, foreclosure deeds up 87%
2010-08-03			MacroMarkets pre-bubble trend: US now undervalued, Boston still overvalued by ~15%
2010-08-03			MA pending home sales down 18% YOY in July, 3rd straight month of declines
2010-08-02			Foreclosure looms - Everett family caught in housing crash seeks to save "dream"