• Boston Futures: For Greater Boston real estate prices from 1987 through the present and looking several years into the future, see the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Boston snapshot with futures (both before and after inflation). The futures markets are probably the most unbiased predictor of where housing prices are headed.
• Price/Income: For a gauge of how overpriced the market is, see the latest report on the Greater Boston price to income ratio.
• Inflation Adjusted: See the latest report on Massachusetts single family home prices for prices as typically reported by the local media but adjusted for inflation.
• Price/Rent: Comparing prices to rents can help illuminate an overpriced market since many hypothetical justifications for higher home prices should raise rents as well. See the latest report on the Boston MSA price to rent ratio.
• The population of the Greater Boston Area was declining as the housing market posted its most exceptional gains during the bubble. One of the fallacious arguments which was used to contest the existence of a housing bubble was that a growing population was pushing up the natural price of property. While that argument is flawed in general, it is especially wrong when the population is declining. [Boston Globe] [Boston Bubble]
• The Wall Street Journal has identified Boston as one of the metropolitan areas in the US where it is cheaper to rent than to buy. Their data goes from 2001, when it was already cheaper to rent, to 2004 when the difference was even more pronounced. The Economist also published an article showing that renting is cheaper, and although it does not focus on Boston, it is very thorough about including various expenses and tax benefits that the Wall Street Journal left out. [Wall Street Journal] [The Economist]
• Consumer Reports has rated real estate in the Boston market as "Overpriced" and pegged it at 24% over the affordable price as of Q4 2004. [Consumer Reports]
• The number of homes sold in Massachusetts has been plummeting. For the third quarter of 2006 (the most recently reported quarter as of this writing), home sales have fallen 23% compared with the same quarter one year earlier. This despite the fact that home sales were already on the decline in 2005. [Worcester Telegram] [WCVB] [Milford Daily News]
• Foreclosures are rising sharply in Greater Boston and Massachusetts. There were more foreclosures in the first nine months of 2006 than in all of 2005, and as of this writing (in November 2006), Massachusetts is on track to break the all time record in 2006. [Boston Globe] [Lowell Sun]
• Boston and Massachusetts are the typical exceptions that people use to qualify their statements when they say that real estate prices don't fall. Boston and Massachusetts prices have fallen in the past, even in nominal terms (when adjusted for inflation, the fall is even more pronounced). Bear in mind that even if prices decline merely by the same percent that they have in the past, the leverage (a.k.a., margin or mortgage) used to purchase the homes must be taken into consideration - the substantially higher number of zero down and negative amortization loans will leave a lot of people with heavy losses and negative equity. [BusinessWeek] [Wall Street Journal (sub)]
• To compensate for property that fails to sell, real estate agents in Boston are falling back on the deceptive practice of canceling the listing in MLS and then creating a new listing so that the property appears as new to the market. There were 10,606 MLS cancellations in the first six months of 2005, up from 9,722 cancellations in the first six months of 2004 and 3,736 in 2001. "The number of canceled listings in Massachusetts has nearly tripled since 2001... In a recent spot check of houses for sale on MLS in Middlesex County, Barry Nystedt, president of the Massachusetts Association of Buyer Agents, said one in four listings canceled between May 25 and June 25 was recreated by the same firm with a new MLS number." [Boston Globe]

• Visit the Wikipedia article on the United States housing bubble for another excellent overview of the bubble on a national scale.
• It is actually now cheaper to rent than to buy in many areas even after you factor in accumulated equity and tax savings. [The Economist]
• Yale professor Robert J. Shiller released the first edition of his prophetic book warning of a stock market bubble weeks before the stock market began its epic crash in 2000. He recently released an updated second edition in late February, 2005 with similar warnings of froth in the real estate market. This book is very highly recommended and is quite readable despite the complexity of the subject. [Irrational Exuberance] [Amazon.com]
• The current nationwide housing boom has been fueled in large part by historically low interest rates and an increase in the use of risky mortgages. Buyers may find that their monthly payments will skyrocket once the introductory period of their mortgage ends and the adjustable rate kicks in. In 2005, only $83 billion, or 1 percent, of mortgage debt will switch to an adjustable rate. In 2007, this number will leap to $1 trillion, or about 12 percent. [Herald Tribune]

Boston Bubble News & Interesting Links

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2008-02-29			Boston Bubble Brief Jan 2008: Real MA SFH median down 9.17% YOY, 21.05% below peak, lowest real median on record. Sales down 27.7% YOY.
2008-02-29			Paulson, Bush oppose bailouts citing main beneficiaries as reckless lenders, investors and speculators
2008-02-29			Homeowners get financial counsel - Grants to Worcester, other cities
2008-02-29			$1 million in aid coming for MA foreclosure counseling
2008-02-29			Glenn Beck: Don't follow herd on the economy
2008-02-28			S&P/Case-Shiller Boston Snapshot: Feb 26, 2008 - Futures now price is bigger drop this spring, flatter nominal prices thereafter
2008-02-28			Menino files petition to tax owners of vacant property 10% of property's value
2008-02-27			Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: January 2008
2008-02-27			City of Boston Close To Acquiring Foreclosed, Abandoned Properties (article plus video)
2008-02-27			Judge slows foreclosures - Lender's loans called 'unfair' under Mass. law
2008-02-26			S&P/Case-Shiller Index for Boston down 3.4% nominally from Dec 2006 to Dec 2007
2008-02-26			US Homes Facing Foreclosure Jump 57% in Jan, MA in top 10
2008-02-26			MAR confirms January plunge. SFH sales down 27.7% YOY, nominal prices down 5.6% YOY.
2008-02-26			Forbes/Reuters state "sense of urgency is also returning to the market" in Boston, citing one anecdote from one Realtor
2008-02-26			Frank wants states to buy foreclosed homes
2008-02-25			Bank of America Asks Congress for a $739 Billion Bank Bailout
2008-02-25			Collapsedachusetts Preview, January 2008: MAR to report SFH nominal prices down 5.6% YOY, sales down 27.7% YOY
2008-02-25			Fidelity facing subprime debt fallout
2008-02-25			Op-Ed by John Kerry on mortgage crisis proposes government bailout of high credit risk (subprime) mortgage holders
2008-02-24			A spreading cancer - Foreclosures strain Lowell neighborhoods already hurting
2008-02-24			Globe's assertion that "higher end and second homes are still holding strong" called into question
2008-02-24			It's all about location; Even in slump, still big differences in bang for housing buck
2008-02-24			Worcester sets up mortgage triage team
2008-02-24			Housing crisis hits immigrants
2008-02-23			Map of Boston foreclosure deeds, January, 2008
2008-02-22			Bailout options for underwater homeowners mulled by politicians, including Barney Frank
2008-02-22			Cape housing woes persist
2008-02-21			Mass. foreclosures rise 128% in January
2008-02-20			NAR ad conflates past performance with future results: "home values nearly double every 10 years"
2008-02-19			Providence may fine owners of vacant buildings 10% of value after 1 year
2008-02-19			Wall Street Faces Fury Over Subprimes - Regulators, in MA and Elsewhere, Hope to Make Wall Street Pay for Its Role in Subprime-Mortgage-Fueled Housing Bust
2008-02-18			Newton Nonprofit Feeling Foreclosure Crunch
2008-02-18			Foreclosure intervention suggestion from Middlesex North Registry of Deeds
2008-02-17			Ocean-front condos on the block, hinting at severity of housing downturn in Revere
2008-02-16			The streets of despair - Foreclosures devastate neighborhoods
2008-02-16			University of Washington professor claims government regulations accounted for 99% of increase in Boston housing prices between 1989 and 2006
2008-02-15			Letter to the Herald editor on report of out-migration of young professionals - choices hypothesized by report not taken in practice
2008-02-15			Foreclosure crisis needs more than cleanup crews
2008-02-15			A foreclosure virus spreads
2008-02-14			NAR: 2007 Q3 saw steepest ever quarterly drop in housing prices (records start in 1979)
2008-02-14			Realtor running party bus tours of foreclosures in Stoughton, Easton, Canton, Sharon, Norton and perhaps Randolph and Braintree
2008-02-14			City of Boston moves to acquire foreclosed Dorchester condos
2008-02-13			Young take bye on homes - Sales to 25- to 34-year-olds down in Bay State
2008-02-13			N.E. cities grapple with foreclosures' fallout - Vacant homes a growing problem
2008-02-13			Free mortgage advice for homeowners in Brockton
2008-02-13			Rent Vs. Buy Myths That Ruined the Housing Market
2008-02-12			PMI to stop insuring mortgages with less than 3% down nationally, MGIC to require at least 5% down in Boston area
2008-02-12			Greater Boston conforming-loan limits to temporarily rise to about $538,000
2008-02-11			Study by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's New England Public Policy Center says high housing costs in Boston area not causing out-migration of young professionals
2008-02-10			MA home sales at lowest level since '92
2008-02-10			Eagle-Tribune's view: Housing prices still an obstacle to economic growth in the North of Boston region
2008-02-10			Foreclosure ground zero - Dorchester's Hendry Street center of Hub's mortgage crisis
2008-02-09			NorthPoint buyer backs off
2008-02-08			Loans still flowing to many in Mass.
2008-02-08			NARcasting The Future: February 2008 - Updated graph of falling forecasts with select quotes
2008-02-08			Salem Jail developer switching from condos to apartments
2008-02-08			Lowell Foreclosure Prevention Task Force
2008-02-07			Most middle class still can't buy a house
2008-02-07			Lending a hand in loan crunch - Lowell group tries to aid local homeowners
2008-02-07			Foreclosure crisis is driving many to seek help
2008-02-07			Foreclosures rise in Marlborough, Hudson
2008-02-07			Company encourages homeowners to walk away from their loans
2008-02-06			Cambridge Chronicle: While home prices slip, local economy strong
2008-02-06			Bay State biz confidence level sinks to new lows
2008-02-06			Bedford Housing market deemed "healthy" by Bedford Minuteman, based on increase in average asking price. Agent blames languishing inventories on buyers trying to "rob" sellers.
2008-02-05			GSE loan limit increase would cover 89% of recent Massachusetts loans as opposed to 73% today
2008-02-05			Email/mail campaign to oppose GSE loan limit changes in stimulus package
2008-02-05			Prime Mortgage files for bankruptcy in Worcester - Large lender facing lawsuits, liquidation
2008-02-05			Herald suggests Lincoln, Weston, et al "immune" to bust and "rising prices" there "could be the first glimmers of a long-hoped-for turnaround"
2008-02-04			Middlesex North Registry of Deeds Stats for Jan 2008 vs Jan 2007: Deeds down 26%, mortgages down 38%, orders of notice up 21%, foreclosure deeds up 117%
2008-02-03			Stimulus plan a scam to benefit the rich - Higher loan limits will lead to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bailout
2008-02-03			Massachusetts accuses Merrill Lynch of defrauding city of Springfield with subprime-linked investments
2008-02-02			Correction: MA SFH Nov and Dec real medians both below 2002 estimates
2008-02-02			BusinessWeek: Housing Meltdown - Why home prices could drop 25% more on average before the market finally hits bottom
2008-02-01			Boston Bubble Brief, Dec 2007: SFH real prices hit lowest point on record, on par with 2002 estimate, 7.13% YOY decline from MAR, 13.79% YOY decline from Warren Group
2008-02-01			Massachusetts foreclosure jump due in part to prime (sic) ARMs
2008-02-01			Fidelity will ax 250; Hub to lose 100, moves to R.I. curtailed
2008-02-01			Bush Subprime Rescue Plan Undermined as States Reject Borrowers; MA has extended only 4 loans under $250M program
2008-02-01			State competing against the world; Report says research effort is facing long-term threats