• Boston Futures: For Greater Boston real estate prices from 1987 through the present and looking several years into the future, see the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Boston snapshot with futures (both before and after inflation). The futures markets are probably the most unbiased predictor of where housing prices are headed.
• Price/Income: For a gauge of how overpriced the market is, see the latest report on the Greater Boston price to income ratio.
• Inflation Adjusted: See the latest report on Massachusetts single family home prices for prices as typically reported by the local media but adjusted for inflation.
• Price/Rent: Comparing prices to rents can help illuminate an overpriced market since many hypothetical justifications for higher home prices should raise rents as well. See the latest report on the Boston MSA price to rent ratio.
• The population of the Greater Boston Area was declining as the housing market posted its most exceptional gains during the bubble. One of the fallacious arguments which was used to contest the existence of a housing bubble was that a growing population was pushing up the natural price of property. While that argument is flawed in general, it is especially wrong when the population is declining. [Boston Globe] [Boston Bubble]
• The Wall Street Journal has identified Boston as one of the metropolitan areas in the US where it is cheaper to rent than to buy. Their data goes from 2001, when it was already cheaper to rent, to 2004 when the difference was even more pronounced. The Economist also published an article showing that renting is cheaper, and although it does not focus on Boston, it is very thorough about including various expenses and tax benefits that the Wall Street Journal left out. [Wall Street Journal] [The Economist]
• Consumer Reports has rated real estate in the Boston market as "Overpriced" and pegged it at 24% over the affordable price as of Q4 2004. [Consumer Reports]
• The number of homes sold in Massachusetts has been plummeting. For the third quarter of 2006 (the most recently reported quarter as of this writing), home sales have fallen 23% compared with the same quarter one year earlier. This despite the fact that home sales were already on the decline in 2005. [Worcester Telegram] [WCVB] [Milford Daily News]
• Foreclosures are rising sharply in Greater Boston and Massachusetts. There were more foreclosures in the first nine months of 2006 than in all of 2005, and as of this writing (in November 2006), Massachusetts is on track to break the all time record in 2006. [Boston Globe] [Lowell Sun]
• Boston and Massachusetts are the typical exceptions that people use to qualify their statements when they say that real estate prices don't fall. Boston and Massachusetts prices have fallen in the past, even in nominal terms (when adjusted for inflation, the fall is even more pronounced). Bear in mind that even if prices decline merely by the same percent that they have in the past, the leverage (a.k.a., margin or mortgage) used to purchase the homes must be taken into consideration - the substantially higher number of zero down and negative amortization loans will leave a lot of people with heavy losses and negative equity. [BusinessWeek] [Wall Street Journal (sub)]
• To compensate for property that fails to sell, real estate agents in Boston are falling back on the deceptive practice of canceling the listing in MLS and then creating a new listing so that the property appears as new to the market. There were 10,606 MLS cancellations in the first six months of 2005, up from 9,722 cancellations in the first six months of 2004 and 3,736 in 2001. "The number of canceled listings in Massachusetts has nearly tripled since 2001... In a recent spot check of houses for sale on MLS in Middlesex County, Barry Nystedt, president of the Massachusetts Association of Buyer Agents, said one in four listings canceled between May 25 and June 25 was recreated by the same firm with a new MLS number." [Boston Globe]

• Visit the Wikipedia article on the United States housing bubble for another excellent overview of the bubble on a national scale.
• It is actually now cheaper to rent than to buy in many areas even after you factor in accumulated equity and tax savings. [The Economist]
• Yale professor Robert J. Shiller released the first edition of his prophetic book warning of a stock market bubble weeks before the stock market began its epic crash in 2000. He recently released an updated second edition in late February, 2005 with similar warnings of froth in the real estate market. This book is very highly recommended and is quite readable despite the complexity of the subject. [Irrational Exuberance] [Amazon.com]
• The current nationwide housing boom has been fueled in large part by historically low interest rates and an increase in the use of risky mortgages. Buyers may find that their monthly payments will skyrocket once the introductory period of their mortgage ends and the adjustable rate kicks in. In 2005, only $83 billion, or 1 percent, of mortgage debt will switch to an adjustable rate. In 2007, this number will leap to $1 trillion, or about 12 percent. [Herald Tribune]

Boston Bubble News & Interesting Links

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2009-09-30			Cambridge Runs Amok - A template for massive municipal profligacy
2009-09-30			Cambridge sales slowed in August
2009-09-30			Is Housing's False Bottom Beginning to Give Way?
2009-09-30			What's the real reason that banks aren't foreclosing?
2009-09-29			Poll: Will $8K homebuyer credit be extended?
2009-09-29			MA SFH nominal median for Aug 2009 vs Aug 2008 - Warren Group: -6.2%, MAR: -3.1%
2009-09-29			Blame Barney Frank If a Pool Isn't in Your Future
2009-09-29			4 indicted in mortgage scheme
2009-09-29			Wall Street bonuses poised to rebound
2009-09-28			MA SFH nominal median down 3.1% YOY in August
2009-09-28			Did Cobden St foreclosures let scammer walk away with $3.8M?
2009-09-28			Squatter claims moral right to live in foreclosure on Cobden St, bank has no plans to remove her
2009-09-25			Land notoriously seized via eminent domain for private development (by Boston developer) sits vacant 4 years later
2009-09-25			Six overlooked Mass. towns
2009-09-24			Redfin on Aug 2009 vs Aug 2008 for Eastern Mass. SFH, condos, multi-families: median down 2% (nominal), sales down 1%
2009-09-24			Home Sales Falter After 4-Month Gain
2009-09-24			Middlesex North Registry of Deeds Aug 2009 foreclosure stats: 13% YOY decline
2009-09-23			Housing Crash to Resume on 7 Million Foreclosures
2009-09-23			Dollar carry trade may hurt U.S. economy
2009-09-23			G-20 heads to Pittsburgh with flat tire on trade
2009-09-23			Boston nation's 7th most unaffordable city (still)
2009-09-23			Massachusetts population nation's 2nd most educated
2009-09-22			MA foreclosure petitions leap 154% YOY in August
2009-09-21			Fed Rejects Geithner Request for Study of Governance, Structure
2009-09-21			MA vs. RI unemployment, August 2009: MA up to 9.1%, RI rises to 12.8%, spread still near peak
2009-09-18			State's jobless rate hits 9.1%
2009-09-18			Most of South End building's condos unsold
2009-09-18			Homestead Seminar Next Week in Billerica
2009-09-18			Credit Policies Still Threaten Recovery
2009-09-17			MIT Endowment Off by 21%
2009-09-17			Struggles of local biotech companies reflected in declining market for lab space
2009-09-17			Massachusetts one of four states prevented from using stimulus money for public housing
2009-09-16			Harvard Endowment Woes Spur Protests Over Vacant Properties
2009-09-16			Trends in Somerville housing discussed at latest SomerVision meeting
2009-09-15			Housing Prices Have Turned Homes Into Shelters, Not Investments
2009-09-14			Too Gloomy? Whitney Predicts 25% Home Price Plunge
2009-09-14			Uncovering Troubled Mortgage Lenders Is Not Easy For Homebuyers - Massachusetts refuses to release details
2009-09-14			Boom to bust: Anatomy of a loan gone bad
2009-09-14			America Out of Work: Is Double-Digit Unemployment Here to Stay?
2009-09-11			Harvard Endowment Declines 30%
2009-09-10			Nouvelle at Natick condos to be auctioned at about 70% below previous asking prices
2009-09-10			Frank, Durbin Renew Call for Cramdown
2009-09-10			Fewer residents get building jobs - Under Menino, number of minority, women workers sink
2009-09-09			Floor falls out for Boston's luxury condo prices
2009-09-08			Massachusetts has 4,548 accepted homebuyer tax credit applications so far
2009-09-07			Frank wants to be HUD secretary, once he "get[s] the federal government back in the housing business"
2009-09-07			Buyers profited by city's discount
2009-09-04			The housing recovery mirage
2009-09-03			Bill introduced to extend and expand homebuyer tax credit
2009-09-03			Boston area most-discounted neighborhoods, August update
2009-09-02			Dynamic foreclosure map (1990-2008) and charts (1987-2008) for Massachusetts cities and towns
2009-09-01			Goldman Sachs Wrong on Economic Recovery, Macro Hedge Funds Say