• Boston Futures: For Greater Boston real estate prices from 1987 through the present and looking several years into the future, see the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Boston snapshot with futures (both before and after inflation). The futures markets are probably the most unbiased predictor of where housing prices are headed.
• Price/Income: For a gauge of how overpriced the market is, see the latest report on the Greater Boston price to income ratio.
• Inflation Adjusted: See the latest report on Massachusetts single family home prices for prices as typically reported by the local media but adjusted for inflation.
• Price/Rent: Comparing prices to rents can help illuminate an overpriced market since many hypothetical justifications for higher home prices should raise rents as well. See the latest report on the Boston MSA price to rent ratio.
• The population of the Greater Boston Area was declining as the housing market posted its most exceptional gains during the bubble. One of the fallacious arguments which was used to contest the existence of a housing bubble was that a growing population was pushing up the natural price of property. While that argument is flawed in general, it is especially wrong when the population is declining. [Boston Globe] [Boston Bubble]
• The Wall Street Journal has identified Boston as one of the metropolitan areas in the US where it is cheaper to rent than to buy. Their data goes from 2001, when it was already cheaper to rent, to 2004 when the difference was even more pronounced. The Economist also published an article showing that renting is cheaper, and although it does not focus on Boston, it is very thorough about including various expenses and tax benefits that the Wall Street Journal left out. [Wall Street Journal] [The Economist]
• Consumer Reports has rated real estate in the Boston market as "Overpriced" and pegged it at 24% over the affordable price as of Q4 2004. [Consumer Reports]
• The number of homes sold in Massachusetts has been plummeting. For the third quarter of 2006 (the most recently reported quarter as of this writing), home sales have fallen 23% compared with the same quarter one year earlier. This despite the fact that home sales were already on the decline in 2005. [Worcester Telegram] [WCVB] [Milford Daily News]
• Foreclosures are rising sharply in Greater Boston and Massachusetts. There were more foreclosures in the first nine months of 2006 than in all of 2005, and as of this writing (in November 2006), Massachusetts is on track to break the all time record in 2006. [Boston Globe] [Lowell Sun]
• Boston and Massachusetts are the typical exceptions that people use to qualify their statements when they say that real estate prices don't fall. Boston and Massachusetts prices have fallen in the past, even in nominal terms (when adjusted for inflation, the fall is even more pronounced). Bear in mind that even if prices decline merely by the same percent that they have in the past, the leverage (a.k.a., margin or mortgage) used to purchase the homes must be taken into consideration - the substantially higher number of zero down and negative amortization loans will leave a lot of people with heavy losses and negative equity. [BusinessWeek] [Wall Street Journal (sub)]
• To compensate for property that fails to sell, real estate agents in Boston are falling back on the deceptive practice of canceling the listing in MLS and then creating a new listing so that the property appears as new to the market. There were 10,606 MLS cancellations in the first six months of 2005, up from 9,722 cancellations in the first six months of 2004 and 3,736 in 2001. "The number of canceled listings in Massachusetts has nearly tripled since 2001... In a recent spot check of houses for sale on MLS in Middlesex County, Barry Nystedt, president of the Massachusetts Association of Buyer Agents, said one in four listings canceled between May 25 and June 25 was recreated by the same firm with a new MLS number." [Boston Globe]

• Visit the Wikipedia article on the United States housing bubble for another excellent overview of the bubble on a national scale.
• It is actually now cheaper to rent than to buy in many areas even after you factor in accumulated equity and tax savings. [The Economist]
• Yale professor Robert J. Shiller released the first edition of his prophetic book warning of a stock market bubble weeks before the stock market began its epic crash in 2000. He recently released an updated second edition in late February, 2005 with similar warnings of froth in the real estate market. This book is very highly recommended and is quite readable despite the complexity of the subject. [Irrational Exuberance] [Amazon.com]
• The current nationwide housing boom has been fueled in large part by historically low interest rates and an increase in the use of risky mortgages. Buyers may find that their monthly payments will skyrocket once the introductory period of their mortgage ends and the adjustable rate kicks in. In 2005, only $83 billion, or 1 percent, of mortgage debt will switch to an adjustable rate. In 2007, this number will leap to $1 trillion, or about 12 percent. [Herald Tribune]

Boston Bubble News & Interesting Links

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2007-10-31			Misleading medians understate savings opportunities for homebuyers
2007-10-31			September single-family home sales fall 27% in R.I.
2007-10-31			Back to the futures: S&P/Case-Shiller Boston snapshot, Aug 2007. Possible nominal bottom in 2010. Futures market predicts additional, nominal price decline of 13.38% for a total decline of 18.88% from the peak.
2007-10-31			Call for Real Estate Consumer Bill of Rights expanding?
2007-10-30			Home prices falling at record pace in August - Down 4.4% (nominally) over the past year in 20 major cities, Case-Shiller says - Boston down 3.6% (nominally)
2007-10-30			America's Big, Fat Housing Inventory - The supply of homes for sale is at a nine-year high, and housing inventories across the U.S. are swelling dangerously (Boston inventory in top 10)
2007-10-29			Bad reaction to Realtor(R) radio and TV ads in Boston area
2007-10-29			Foreclosures hit MA Section 8 tenants - Activists: New owners trample on renters' rights
2007-10-29			An Open-source MLS Replacement?
2007-10-26			Boston Bubble Brief, Sep 2007: Prices 15.29% below peak, lowest September on record (from 2003 on), discrepancy between MAR and Warren Group at 11.84%
2007-10-25			Housing horror could hang around for years (Boston mentioned)
2007-10-25			Countrywide Financial: Explosion of REOs Was A Technical Glitch
2007-10-24			Report: Bay State behind in global economy
2007-10-24			Massachusetts Housing Market Blog: September Market Wrap
2007-10-23			Breaking News: Countrywide Financial REO's Off The Charts! Glitch reveals order of magnitude jump, but was it an error in the data or a peak behind the curtain?
2007-10-23			A Troubled 'Ownership Society' - As lenders cease making small, second loans, the homeownership rate is starting to decline, and the outlook for the housing market could worsen
2007-10-23			Who has to sell and who has to buy? What is the ratio?
2007-10-23			Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales: September 2007
2007-10-23			MAR on Sep 2007 vs Sep 2006: Nominal prices down 0.3%, sales down 13.7%. Link president Debra Taylor Blair says downtown market "insulated" from problems.
2007-10-23			Worcester County September sales down 46% from 2006
2007-10-22			Warren Group on Sep 2007 vs Sep 2006 for Massachusetts: Nominal prices down 4.6%, sales down 19%. Foreclosures may explain continuing discrepancies with MAR.
2007-10-22			Default crisis is evicting renters - Tenants forced out by foreclosures
2007-10-21			Area home auctions hit the roof - Foreclosures north of Boston nearly triple
2007-10-21			Rising foreclosures danger to MA and US economy
2007-10-20			Sox bat .000 in home game - Real estate market tough on stars, too
2007-10-19			Revisiting the Nouvelle at Natick - what are the prospects for this condo development?
2007-10-19			Middlesex North Registry of Deeds: Mid-Month Stats for October 2007
2007-10-19			Patrick wants mortgage lenders to work more closely with state to speed sales of foreclosed homes
2007-10-19			Fort Point Channel vision clouding over - Development team selling off properties as condo market cools
2007-10-19			Globe leaves out overlap in Patrick's service at Ameriquest with peak in subprime origination
2007-10-19			State toughens rules on mortgages - AG targets high fees, unaffordable loans
2007-10-18			MA House Bill Seeks to Slow Foreclosures
2007-10-18			The Arlington Artifice: September 2007
2007-10-18			Massachusetts AG Issues Final Mortgage Broker And Lender Regulations
2007-10-18			"Great time" to buy a house - anecdotes of prices down $200K and low-ball offers
2007-10-17			US Forecast: New mortgages to drop by 18% in 2008 and then 6% more in 2009
2007-10-16			Delinquencies at condos can cost neighbors - Anecdote from Dale Village in Roslindale
2007-10-16			Housing Market Woes Hit Worcester County Hard
2007-10-16			Mortgage financiers: housing prices to continue decline through at least end of 2008, prices may not start rising again until 2010
2007-10-15			Bono to lure depleted broker ranks to mortgage fete in Boston next week
2007-10-15			Patrick's work as Associate US Atty Gen. cited as possible contributing factor in current mortgage inequality problems (see external comments)
2007-10-15			Group protests at Jamaica Plain office of Countrywide Financial, calls for boycott
2007-10-15			How relevant is Patrick's past work for largest US subprime lender (Ameriquest) when pressing lenders now?
2007-10-15			Patrick to press mortgage companies - Says lenders can help prevent foreclosures
2007-10-14			Hearing To Focus On Mortgage Inequalities in Boston - Congressional Hearing To Focus On Higher Black, Latino Loan Prices
2007-10-14			Home appraisals can help land you an accurate asking price
2007-10-14			Foreclosures threaten Providence neighborhoods' vitality
2007-10-14			Summit Mortgage closes its doors, is largest Boston based lender to collapse thus far
2007-10-14			The Warren Group offers complete foreclosure auction information
2007-10-13			Housing programs offer real help
2007-10-13			More to face loss of home in Mass. - Foreclosures double
2007-10-12			Harborview at the Navy Yard on the auction block Nov 8th
2007-10-12			Countrywide Loyalty Oath Wristband for Sale on eBay
2007-10-12			Round 2: Globe response to "hot" Arlington criticism
2007-10-12			The state's global-local paradox - challenges in bringing economic development to Massachusetts
2007-10-12			Medford condos to be auctioned - Skyline Condominiums at Station Landing
2007-10-11			Arlington: hot or not? Globe lambasted for puff piece inaccuracies
2007-10-11			Greater Boston Housing Report Card: It's not a seller's market, a buyer's market, a lender's market, or anybody's market
2007-10-11			Greater Boston housing not affordable - Study: Slump not ending issue
2007-10-11			NARcasting The Future: October 2007 - Latest 2007 "forecast" from the NAR juxtaposed against past "forecasts." Updated graph of dwindling predictions.
2007-10-10			Mass foreclosure activity continues to rise
2007-10-09			Boston foreclosure report, week ending October 5, 2007
2007-10-08			As foreclosures widen, a neighborhood erodes - Crisis tests many in north Lawrence
2007-10-08			South Shore's soft market - In once-hot region, home sales, prices lag behind other areas of Bay State
2007-10-08			Attorney General Martha Coakley Files Lawsuit Against National Mortgage Lender-Fremont Investment and Loan - First Case Under 2004 Predatory Home Practices Act
2007-10-05			Boston Bubble Report: MA Housing vs. Income 1984 - 2006
2007-10-04			Middlesex North Registry of Deeds: preliminary September stats
2007-10-03			State suing Countrywide Financial
2007-10-03			Record Level of Foreclosure Filings Throughout Massachusetts in Third Quarter of 2007
2007-10-02			Globe asks for comments: are subprime borrowers victims or perpetrators?
2007-10-02			R.I. house, condo sales both decline
2007-10-02			Mortgage brokers' sleight of hand
2007-10-01			Insightful examination of Globe article on rate increases hammering Massachusetts homeowners
2007-10-01			Mortgages set up to fail - Hub crisis fueled by scams, unprepared buyers
2007-10-01			Saugus home values decline
2007-10-01			Boston foreclosure report, week ending September 28, 2007