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john p
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820
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 Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2009 5:42 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Hard Rain said:
| Quote: | | I myself give more credence to actual data then Pollyanna tales of packed cheesecake factories and Bloomingdales ...... |
I agree, but what I'm learning is that these pollyanna's that go to the Cheesecake Factory and shop at Bloomingdales (it was actually Macy's) are the individuals WHO ARE THE DATA.
Don't think that data is pure, it is just the record of all the pollyannas and other's decisions. If that wasn't a fact, we never would have voted for Obama. (self correction applied, no need to rebut)... Housing is hard and soft science. Further, if you were looking in the Burlington Mall area, it would certainly be meaningful data that the Mall was full consistently.
Part of the psychology in today's housing market is this harsh reality and the comfort blanket of delusion (prior year's outlook) that we want to crawl back into. The habit of going out to eat, and shopping are imprinted into our behavior and although people are reeling that stuff back in, the predisposition does creat a gravitational force. This is raw observation, and true science is direct observation, sometimes more pure than historical data. In Biology class they said "the specimen never lies". I think it is important to benchmark these tell signs. For example, if you wanted to take measure as to people's outlook on the economy, you might look for a few key products that are signals. I know economists/investors that look at key indicators that seem like pollyanna stories, but really unveil alot. For example, this one guy would look at the make or buy or repair of freighter ships. If the shippers saw orders coming in and felt comfortable, they'd invest in new vehicles. Now a lot of the shipping takes place before many of the sales are recorded, so these little real world diagnostic triggers can shed light on people's perceptions and if you see a symphony of these notes, it is worth factoring. I don't put all my stock into pedestrian knowledge, but a smart pedestrian can project quite a bit if they compliment it with what they read in the Economist, the WSJ, etc....
Hell, people might be fudging historical numbers as well, I mean they have altered inflation readings by changing the goods in the basket of goods and as Gen X-er noted, you can't make direct relationships based on data because there are behavior triggers that are associated with certain context (i.e. assessing opportunity costs). |
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Hard Rain
Guest
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| Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2009 6:33 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| john p wrote: | Hard Rain said:
| Quote: | | I myself give more credence to actual data then Pollyanna tales of packed cheesecake factories and Bloomingdales ...... |
I don't put all my stock into pedestrian knowledge, but a smart pedestrian can project quite a bit if they compliment it with what they read in the Economist, the WSJ, etc....
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Here's some complimentary data for your stroll:
"Neiman Marcus is joining the ranks of retailers cutting store hours as the recession curtails even wealthy consumers' appetites for shopping" 6/10/2009
"A report from New York-based real estate research firm Reis Inc. showed retail tenants at neighborhood centers, strip malls and regional malls vacated a decade-high 8.7 million square feet of retail space in the first quarter of 2009 — up from the 8.6 million square feet vacated in all of 2008" |
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john p
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820
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| Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2009 6:47 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Hmm, maybe nobody is buying??
Maybe people ARE buying, but with the steep discounts, they're not making the money they used to.
Have you ever heard the story about the guy who owned a pushcart in Haymarket and used to buy watermellons for two for a buck and then would wheel them across town and sell them for 50 cents each? The guy had an stroke of genius after realizing that he wasn't getting ahead, when the lightbulb went on, he said "I need a bigger cart".
I kind of like the moniker "Hard Rain", it is very ominous. Now that I know that if I lob up a soft ball that you're going to spike it with great zeal, technique, and style, I will have to resist the temptation to do so again. 
I agree, however, swimming in the currents of the low end of the gene pool might get you caught in an undertow and swept to sea. I am curious to understand how those readings align with my recent observations. Perhaps the decision to close the stores that was reported on June 10th was based on decisions made in May which were based on data that got reported in March? I want to know what's right, your data or a couple of our observations. Then we will know who the real Barney Frank is. |
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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| Posted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 2:43 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Just looking |
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mpr
Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 344
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| Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2009 4:24 am GMT Post subject: |
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| john p wrote: | Hard Rain said:
| Quote: | | I myself give more credence to actual data then Pollyanna tales of packed cheesecake factories and Bloomingdales ...... |
I agree, but what I'm learning is that these pollyanna's that go to the Cheesecake Factory and shop at Bloomingdales (it was actually Macy's) are the individuals WHO ARE THE DATA.
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I tend to agree. Any "actual data" is of necessity something you see in
the rear view mirror. Only by going directly to the trenches - errhm malls -
can you really get your finger on the pulse of things.  |
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Hard Rain
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| Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2009 12:26 pm GMT Post subject: |
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"I tend to agree. Any "actual data" is of necessity something you see in
the rear view mirror. Only by going directly to the trenches - errhm malls -
can you really get your finger on the pulse of things"
My problem is with the depth of your trench.... |
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renterstill
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| Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2009 12:31 pm GMT Post subject: |
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People are a bit more spending cautious but still in too much debt.
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2009/06/june-10-2009-one-simple-four-letter.html
I agree, there are some incredible deals out there. All of my co-workers take their families to Disney for 50% less of what they would have paid last year. One thing if they don't extend themselves and do not charge it, yet another if this is still a choice between paying off their credit card debts or taking a family vacation. I still see the latter more often.
What would happen if from today there was a freeze on all credit cards and we'd become cash-based, including buying big ticket items such as vehicles? |
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melonrightcoast
Joined: 22 Feb 2009
Posts: 236
Location: metrowest
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| Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2009 1:08 pm GMT Post subject: Malls |
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As for the packed malls. Last time I went to the Burlington Mall, which was maybe in April?, I was also surprised at how packed it was. Then, when I went to the counter to purchase something, there was no line. None. That explained why store employees were asking customers if they could help them, because they had time to do that since they were not standing at the cash register ringing up sales. And as I exited the mall, I looked around at people actually carrying store bags. Not very many. Maybe 1 out of 10 people is my very un-factual guestimate.
I noticed this at Christmas as well.
_________________
melonrightcoast ... are you? |
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john p
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820
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| Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2009 3:35 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Hard Rain said:
| Quote: | | My problem is with the depth of your trench.... |
You should seriously consider writing, funny stuff with that edge. I'd love to read articles and books filled with this stuff. I normally don't like reading because I haven't found writers that can make me laugh.
Keep strolling, that is awesome stuff. Gold, Jerry, Gold. |
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Hard Rain
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2009 11:54 pm GMT Post subject: |
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"Now that I know that if I lob up a soft ball that you're going to spike it with great zeal, technique, and style, I will have to resist the temptation to do so again"
"
You should seriously consider writing, funny stuff with that edge. I'd love to read articles and books filled with this stuff. I normally don't like reading because I haven't found writers that can make me laugh."
Flattered, but I'm strictly senior slow pitch, most of the players of the HBB can hit the high hard one...
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.html |
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fred
Joined: 07 Jun 2009
Posts: 7
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| Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 1:59 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| GenXer wrote: | | My rent is 1700 a month, utilities are about 70 a month for a 2b/2b condo in Newton with 1160 sf in a decent neighborhood. A few hundred more can get you a luxury condo in a new construction. |
Hey GenXer, can you suggest some apartment complexes in Newton that I could look at for rentals? I'm not willing to pay a realtor fee and would like to be close to the T & shops if possible. I anticipate having to move out there in about 2 years. |
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GenXer
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703
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fred
Joined: 07 Jun 2009
Posts: 7
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| Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 7:01 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Thanks GenXer. |
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