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Goodbye to BiddingWars: Some Hottest Markets Falling Hardest

 
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 204
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:16 pm GMT    Post subject: Goodbye to BiddingWars: Some Hottest Markets Falling Hardest Reply with quote

CNBC: Goodbye to bidding wars: Some of the hottest housing markets are falling the hardest

http://bit.ly/HarderREFall

Eager to watch how #BiddingWarBacklash unfolds over the next three years, and not hard to imagine lawsuits. Please share this link with anyone you know who is house hunting, or who overpaid for a home in recent years because they were manipulated in a BLIND bidding war

http://bit.ly/unFoldBidWars
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Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
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97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:32 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: Goodbye to BiddingWars: Some Hottest Markets Falling Har Reply with quote

RealEstateCafe wrote:
CNBC: Goodbye to bidding wars: Some of the hottest housing markets are falling the hardest

http://bit.ly/HarderREFall

Eager to watch how #BiddingWarBacklash unfolds over the next three years, and not hard to imagine lawsuits. Please share this link with anyone you know who is house hunting, or who overpaid for a home in recent years because they were manipulated in a BLIND bidding war

http://bit.ly/unFoldBidWars


Sure, just wait until 2019 spring open houses where 50 families show up to any market priced open house under 600k in the Boston area. For houses 600k or under, buyers still outnumber sellers at least 10 to 1.
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 204
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:04 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

“For houses 600k or under, buyers still outnumber sellers at least 10 to 1.”

No doubt two or three single-family homes in Cambridge in that price range will attract at least 11 families to an open house next Spring, but they’re not necessarily the ones driving bidding wars $100K over asking price. See #1 below.

Invite you and others on Boston Bubble to excuse my lame sense of humor and to consider addressing these questions just to start in a friendly debate, online or off. Can we ask anonymous “Guest” respondents to disclose whether they’re a real estate agent, mortgage professional, investor or consumer (most eager to hear from this group, please specify whether you’re a buyer, seller or both).

1. Seen the Fed’s new mandate to track all cash transactions in the Middlesex & Suffolk counties over $300K? Think that, in combination with new regs to limit AirBnB, will have a calming effect on the speculative cycle and irrational bids?

http://bit.ly/Track300CashBOS

2. Given predictions of a recession beginning in 2019 or 2020, do you think bidding wars will continue?

3. Beyond downward pressure on prices caused by rising interest rates and a looming recession, what impact do you think the “Great Senior Sell-Off” will have on prices? Think we’ll see reverse bidding wars?

http://bit.ly/SrSellOff

4. Where else besides Cambridge do you think the 10 to 1 demand / supply imbalance will exist during Spring 2019? Seriously, can you sketch an outline on a map where you prove that at least 50 families will attend every open house 100 days from now?

5. How far you think that will drive prices over asking price? Can you prove that with stats from the second half of 2018?

6. Do you think real estate agents will sometimes deliberately underprice a property to whip up bidding war hysteria? What impact do you think they are trying to achieve, do you think price reductions on competing properties will undermine that trick in 2019?

7. If you or anyone else is a serious buyer, why are you waiting for Spring open houses rather than using house hunting strategies that allow you to avoid the hidden costs of reactive home buying — including bidding wars?
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Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 204
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:23 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
“For houses 600k or under, buyers still outnumber sellers at least 10 to 1.”

No doubt two or three single-family homes in Cambridge in that price range will attract at least 11 families to an open house next Spring, but they’re not necessarily the ones driving bidding wars $100K over asking price. See #1 below.


FACT CHECK: To my surprise, our analysis of MLS data for 4Q2018 (10/0/18 - 12/17/18 ) found 11 properties in Cambridge -- including one single-family house -- FAILED to sell despite an asking price below $600K!

For every three closings during that period, one listing failed -- ie. it was canceled, expired, or withdrawn.

Thus far, 16% of BLIND bidding wars have still driven winning bids $100K over asking price in Cambridge, but it's significant to note that 14% of sales have been $100K or more below asking price. That translates to 22 listings, another 30 listings reduced their price by $100K or more without selling.

If the Fed raises interest rates tomorrow, will be interesting to use the Bidding War Report Card from 4Q2018 as a baseline for comparison.

+ + +

Research a la Carte: What kinds of questions would you like us to address in Cambridge? If you're a buyer, where else would you like us to analyze MLS data to help you make a more informed offer and hopefully avoid bidding over asking price?
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Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:57 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

RealEstateCafe wrote:
Quote:
“For houses 600k or under, buyers still outnumber sellers at least 10 to 1.”

No doubt two or three single-family homes in Cambridge in that price range will attract at least 11 families to an open house next Spring, but they’re not necessarily the ones driving bidding wars $100K over asking price. See #1 below.


FACT CHECK: To my surprise, our analysis of MLS data for 4Q2018 (10/0/18 - 12/17/18 ) found 11 properties in Cambridge -- including one single-family house -- FAILED to sell despite an asking price below $600K!

For every three closings during that period, one listing failed -- ie. it was canceled, expired, or withdrawn.

Thus far, 16% of BLIND bidding wars have still driven winning bids $100K over asking price in Cambridge, but it's significant to note that 14% of sales have been $100K or more below asking price. That translates to 22 listings, another 30 listings reduced their price by $100K or more without selling.

If the Fed raises interest rates tomorrow, will be interesting to use the Bidding War Report Card from 4Q2018 as a baseline for comparison.

+ + +

Research a la Carte: What kinds of questions would you like us to address in Cambridge? If you're a buyer, where else would you like us to analyze MLS data to help you make a more informed offer and hopefully avoid bidding over asking price?


Can you provide the listing for the 600k house in Cambridge? I just did a search and found no single family homes under 600k sold in Cambridge in the past year.
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 204
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:51 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Exactly, the single-family house, a self-described condo alternative, failed to sell even though it was priced below $600K. Search Zillow for 297 Rindge Ave, Cambridge MA and you will see that the seller was late to the Fall market and gave up without reducing their price:

12/6/2018 Listing removed $599,900
10/11/2018 Listed for sale $599,900
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Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 204
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:09 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

If prices are softening why do readers think consumer sentiment is declining? How do you think this national survey compares to Greater Boston, other parts of the state & across New England?

https://twitter.com/nar_research/status/1075043537404727298?s=21

Will price reductions be enough to offset rising interest rates / shrinking purchasing power?

Again, if you respond, please identify whether you’re a real estate professional, lender, investor, buyer or seller.
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:27 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

When was there a single family in Cambridge for $600 K ?
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Elrond



Joined: 27 Feb 2013
Posts: 48
Location: Boston, MA

PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:43 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

700 square foot single family for $600K... rofl
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:27 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Elrond wrote:
700 square foot single family for $600K... rofl


700 sq ft ?
More like a single person house. I don't want to raise a family in 700 sq ft.
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bsg61
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:34 pm GMT    Post subject: 297 Rindge Ave Reply with quote

This property is now "pending"/under contract per several websites.

Zillow says "pending sale" on 1/24/19 and "listing removed" on 2/07/19.

Will be interested to see what it sold for (if indeed the sale goes through).
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GIBSON



Joined: 13 Jul 2019
Posts: 1

PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2019 1:02 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Decent, need to accomplish something like this with mine.
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