bostonbubble.com

[Kaidran]

I am seeing a LOT of price changes in my Redfin listings at the moment and much fewer contingencies. Anyone else noticing anything similar?

[GD]

I see some price increases, very very few price decreases in properties I'm following. Some went off market, some were contingent then became available again.
(<500K <20 year old between boston and westborough)

I hope prices decrease. This area is out of my league.

[CC]

I guess you see what you want to see. I don't see many activities. The market seems to be very slow, but I am not sure because it's just 2 weeks after the end of April.

[Brian C]

Seen lots of re-listed properties coming back at lower prices but not low enough.
Tons of open houses this weekend (5/16) with one property at least 20 cars in front of it. Went back and looked at the listing, they priced it right for the neighborhood. Sucks for the house on the same street priced $50k above.

New foreclosed property in my neighborhood and its causing quite the stir.
Sold in 2007 for $225k as short sale, the homeowners tried to flip the property 6 months later and list it for $480k. Well it sat on the market from 10/2007 to today when it went on as a foreclosed property for $350k!!

[Kaidran]

If I get time I will run back over the past few weeks and add up price drops, increases, contingents and back ons. When the tax credit was expiring I noticed about 50:50 contingencies to price drops a couple of weeks later there seems to be much fewer contingencies and multiple back ons. Without real data though it is pretty meaningless though.

[Kaidran]

Well, forget everything I said. Today's were all contingencies but one. I wonder if there is a trend on days of the week for price drops and days for contingencies? I have noticed a lot of new listings on Thursdays and Fridays. When I sold my house in 2007 the agent said that most go on the market on Monday to allow people time to plan their open house routes. I guess that it out of date information now.

[GD]

You know, as a potential buyer who've looked for 2 years, I'm definitely hoping for price declines around the 15-20% mark. That'll bring most of the areas within commuting distances to Boston in line with most parts of America - won't be cheap, but will actually not be crazy.

But I just don't see it happening. We'll probably just inflate up to near current price levels in a few years time. Sellers can't afford to sell so low, and they're not hearing gloom from agents. There's also a lot of old money (also, inheritance from boomers in the coming years) pouring through the area.

Btw, very frustrating.
I mentioned the areas I was looking at...as far west as Westboro. I even included Grafton/Worchester for a while hoping those 2 areas will actually be affordable. But when a nicer Grafton house is around 200psf and Worchester for goodness sake is 180psf something is seriously wrong. Who wants to live in Worchester? Gawds

[CC]

[JCK]

Supply, supply, supply.

Supply is not up over last year, and is much lower than the last few years.

http://www.housingtracker.net/asking-prices/boston-massachusetts/


We're not going to see big drops in price until supply rises. It's somewhat of a catch-22, because I think a lot people are not moving because prices haven't risen. So the only people who are moving right now are those who have to for job reasons or personal reasons (marriage, divorce, child).

I think there are very few people "trading up" right now. Thus, limited supply.

[CC]

[JCK]

It does explain why prices are not dropping here, like they are in Phoenix, Vegas, etc.

If supply is dropping each year, then it puts a floor on how low prices will go.

I don't think you're going to see dramatic prices drops (like the ones people on this board are hoping for) until supply starts to increase.

I guess months supply (supply divided by number of sales/month) is a better measure than total supply, but my point is that decreased supply, whatever the reason, does not support lower prices.

I think that's pretty basic.

[GenXer]

We can explain anything in hindsight. In fact, if prices keep dropping everywhere else, they will eventually drop in MA as well. There may not be 'fundamentals' for that, yet it may only take a couple of extra percent rise in unemployment rate to really bring prices down in some places. Nobody knows. Extrapolating today into the future is exactly the wrong thing to do - the longer your extrapolation, the more wrong you'll be (that's guaranteed, unless you make a lucky guess).

[CC]

[balor123]

Report today... mortgage apps at 13 year low. CPI negative again. Rents don't appear to be dropping much on a month to month basis but in my complex they are charging winter prices in the summer, though occupancy seems to be pretty high. These are good signs for those that want deflation. I'm still hopeful that like the laws of physics, the laws of economics will eventually win.

[admin]