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 Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:05 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Agree agree agree. I saw that one too I thought crazy |
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Guest
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:56 pm GMT Post subject: |
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I think as interest rate up trend slowly in place, it blows off the top tier of foam in housing market with every hike.
Price is getting flat, and dip a bit in high end housing tier. Recent stock market drop maybe a good indication of worse time is still yet to come.
The only thing still flowing the boat is people still have confidence with the current economy, as job market still ok. I won't see the perfect storm until companies start laying off people due to big stock market crash, which I can see as a long due event that will happen.
Also need to put $15 minimum wage into consideration, which will forever raise the price floor for low end market. And with simple calculation, anything with monthly payment of $1600 or below would be considered less room to fall further. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:13 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Anonymous wrote: | I think as interest rate up trend slowly in place, it blows off the top tier of foam in housing market with every hike.
Price is getting flat, and dip a bit in high end housing tier. Recent stock market drop maybe a good indication of worse time is still yet to come.
The only thing still flowing the boat is people still have confidence with the current economy, as job market still ok. I won't see the perfect storm until companies start laying off people due to big stock market crash, which I can see as a long due event that will happen.
Also need to put $15 minimum wage into consideration, which will forever raise the price floor for low end market. And with simple calculation, anything with monthly payment of $1600 or below would be considered less room to fall further. |
Interest rates don't matter to the top tier housing buyers because they don't pinch pennies like everyone else. Every 1% increase per $100k is an additional $100/month. To someone with a $2 million mortgage on a house in Wellesley, 2k more per month is chump change. The stock market drops hurt them much worse, though.
When the minimum wage goes up, everyone's wages go up. If McDonald's pays 15, Starbucks has to pay more than that and so on up the food chain. If your wages aren't going up, it's your fault for not finding a better job. |
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| Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:32 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Interest rates don't matter to the top tier housing buyers because they don't pinch pennies like everyone else.
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I don't know about that. Interest rate hike so far have suppressed the demand of buying, especially on the high end market. And when greedy owners who holds 2 millions mortgage suddenly found out no more fools want to buy it from them, they get into fear and try to cut lost and sell, that further suppress the price. You can go check in zillow and redfin, the price drop occur often in top tier housing.
| Quote: | | When the minimum wage goes up, everyone's wages go up. If McDonald's pays 15, Starbucks has to pay more than that and so on up the food chain. If your wages aren't going up, it's your fault for not finding a better job. |
Again I have doubt of this logic as well. McDonald pay 15 bucks per hour from 10 bucks per hour currently, that is 50% increase in pay. This has nothing to do with a software engineer who get paid 40 dollars per hour will suddenly get raised to 60 dollars per hour. Instead, that job might be shipped to India now with higher cost. minimum wage only lift the price floor, but not necessary left all salaries level. And that is what we are seeing here, with sub 300k SFH becoming harder and harder to find with 95 belt. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:34 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Quote: | Interest rates don't matter to the top tier housing buyers because they don't pinch pennies like everyone else.
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I don't know about that. Interest rate hike so far have suppressed the demand of buying, especially on the high end market. And when greedy owners who holds 2 millions mortgage suddenly found out no more fools want to buy it from them, they get into fear and try to cut lost and sell, that further suppress the price. You can go check in zillow and redfin, the price drop occur often in top tier housing.
Prices aren't dropping in Welleley. Sales prices are still increasing YOY. The rate of increase is dropping though. We are going to see a more sustainable phase of 3-5% YOY increases for the next few years.
| Quote: | | When the minimum wage goes up, everyone's wages go up. If McDonald's pays 15, Starbucks has to pay more than that and so on up the food chain. If your wages aren't going up, it's your fault for not finding a better job. |
Again I have doubt of this logic as well. McDonald pay 15 bucks per hour from 10 bucks per hour currently, that is 50% increase in pay. This has nothing to do with a software engineer who get paid 40 dollars per hour will suddenly get raised to 60 dollars per hour. Instead, that job might be shipped to India now with higher cost. minimum wage only lift the price floor, but not necessary left all salaries level. And that is what we are seeing here, with sub 300k SFH becoming harder and harder to find with 95 belt. |
You are the one assuming 50% increase and that's not logical. Everyone will eventually get an extra 5 bucks an hour when the minimum wage goes to $15. The dominoes are already falling. This is economics 101, but you need to take economics classes before you understand how the economics works.
http://www.bostonherald.com/business/business_markets/2018/11/boston_hotel_strike_over
What does it mean when everyone gets a raise from the bottom up? Hint: Higher rents which will eventually lead to higher home prices. |
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