bostonbubble.com

[Guest]

I’m still left baffled with how much homes have gone up in 5 years.

I saw this one for example: https://www.redfin.com/MA/Dedham/334-Bridge-St-02026/home/8849359

Current listing in 2020: 480k listed, marked as “hot home” on Redfin
2019: 377k
2015: 265k

HOW is this sustainable? A modest house has gone up 215k in 5 years, and over 100k in a year?!

The house isn’t renovated, old kitchen and bath, so it’s not like the house was actually improved.

All I have to say is it blows my freaking mind. I am kicking myself for not buying 5 years ago and instead waiting for this to even out. Because foolishly I thought in 2015 that houses were too expensive and I might not be able to afford one. And if I had just bit the bullet then, I would have been sitting on 215k in equity.

Will I be kicking myself in another 5 years when houses like this are worth 700k?

When does this madness end?

[Guest]

[bsg61]

I've been seeing similar price increases all over greater Boston/MA. Prices have literally doubled in many cases in the last 5-6 years.

Sadly it seems the madness may not end soon due to continued Fed policy and an unprecedented long term low interest environment. They are kicking the proverbial can down the road by printing money and are running out of ammunition, based on what I've read and I'm certainly no expert. The Fed tried to raise interest rates last year and the stock market didn't like it, and with POTUS pushing for ZIRP or 0% interest policy the Fed has indicated they will continue to protect the "investor class" at all costs, so to speak.

As George Carlin once put it, "it's a big club and you ain't in it".

There is no safe way to preserve capital in the current low interest environment and thus there is now reportedly a mad rush to real estate as true, everyone needs a place to live. Yet over the last decade, housing has become increasingly financialized. Instead of a house being a home, a place to raise a family, a place to put down roots - housing is now treated as a commodity – a vehicle for wealth and investment rather than a social good.

History does tend to repeat itself though, and although there are those who say "this time it's different" it does seem that a day of reckoning will come. Some who bought "at the top" may come to regret it (look at what happened in 2008). When this day comes is anyone's guess. Naturally, the rich won't suffer much at all and will just get richer.

Reminds me of French saying: "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose". In English, "the more things change, the more they stay the same."

[bsg61]

This isn't exactly a suburb but I watched this listing last year, in Gloucester:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/158-Hesperus-Ave-APT-3-Gloucester-MA-01930/56045902_zpid/

Interesting price history:
Sold in October 2006 for $332,500
Listed in February 2011 for $325.000
Sold in May 2012 for $246,500

Hmmm...looks like real estate doesn't always go UP...
Inexplicably, 7 years later...

Listed in April 2019 for $559,000 - a 126% increase!

Alas, after many price decreases, in March 2020 it finally sells for $399,000.
A cautionary tale, perhaps?

Today 5 months later, Zillow reports it's "value" is $413.353.

I dunno. Maybe this time it is different.

[Guest]

Here’s another one: https://www.redfin.com/MA/Stoughton/280-Canton-St-02072/home/11729286

2018: 205k
2020: 480k

In STOUGHTON! 🤦🏼‍♀️🤦🏼‍♀️ This one at least seems completely renovated so I’ll give them some of that.

[bsg61]

Woweeee. Check out the before photos of the Stoughton house:

https://www.estately.com/listings/info/280-canton-st--1

Apparently this is what they call a "flip". Would love to know how much the renovation cost....

[bsg61]

And the house is now listed as "contingent".

[Guest]

First of all Soughton is not a nice town (sorry Soughtonites). And Dedham is what it is (sorry Dedhamites). But I keep hearing how people are fleeing the city. Maybe this is a buying opporrtunity in Boston, Brookline, Cambridge.

[Guest]

[bsg61]

The Fed has just indicated interest rates will not be raised until 2023. Thus housing prices may remain artificially elevated with continued historically low mortgage interest rates. Can gets kicked down the road a bit longer until....?

It's a GREAT time to buy! It's a great time to take out a jumbo mortgage!

"Mortgage rates fell again for the umpteenth time this year, with the 30-year fixed slipping to 3.09 percent, the lowest ever in Bankrate’s weekly survey of large banks."

How about those increased property taxes! The money's gotta come from somewhere! Taxpayers to the rescue.

https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/30-year-mortgage-rate-for-september-16/

Thanks FED!

[Guest]

[quote="bsg61"]The Fed has just indicated interest rates will not be raised until 2023. Thus housing prices may remain artificially elevated with continued historically low mortgage interest rates. Can gets kicked down the road a bit longer until....?


Even if prices are artificially elevated right now, if you're going to stay in the
house for a long time, it makes sense to buy now. Interest rates have never
been lower. When is your monthly payment going to be this low? I'm not a
realtor. Just a HS math teacher.

[bsg61]

True. If you plan to stay in the home for a long time and you have enough for a 20% downpayment, you find a place you like/love, then you should buy. The conventional wisdom is buy when interest rates are higher and prices are lower as the interest rate can always change and you can re-finance but the (inflated) price you pay for the house will not ever change.

We could be in for many, many years of low interest rates and inflated asset prices, so yes, if you have the stomach for it, and your future cash flow/job prospects are solid then yes, you do need a place to live and you should buy now.

Besides, if/when there is a crash, according to a recently article published in the Wall St. Journal, Wall St. landlords are at the ready to buy up properties from distressed "owners" so to avoid being a serf to Lord Wall St., yes, now is likely as good a time as any to buy.

Then again....if you can wait a year or two, you *may* be able to get a much better deal. Then again, maybe not....

[Guest]

My impression from friends and coworkers that are looking to buy is that it's
currently a bit of a seller's market in the suburbs. But without the crazy price wars. Expect to pay at or near asking.

[Guest]

Here’s another one, almost 200k profit in exactly two years.

https://www.redfin.com/MA/Quincy/45-Edison-Park-02169/home/8941069

I’m kicking myself for thinking the market would eventually correct for this insanity. Clearly, I was wrong. And I missed out on some big gains. Now I wonder if I’ll also be saying this in another two years when prices have gone up another 200%

[Guest]