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Boston-Specific Info
- Boston Futures: For Greater Boston real estate prices from 1987 through the present and looking several years into the future, see the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Boston snapshot with futures (both before and after inflation). The futures markets are probably the most unbiased predictor of where housing prices are headed.
- Price/Income: For a gauge of how overpriced the market is, see the latest report on the Greater Boston price to income ratio.
- Inflation Adjusted: See the latest report on Massachusetts single family home prices for prices as typically reported by the local media but adjusted for inflation.
- Price/Rent: Comparing prices to rents can help illuminate an overpriced market since many hypothetical justifications for higher home prices should raise rents as well. See the latest report on the Boston MSA price to rent ratio.
- The population of the Greater Boston Area was declining as the housing market posted its most exceptional gains during the bubble. One of the fallacious arguments which was used to contest the existence of a housing bubble was that a growing population was pushing up the natural price of property. While that argument is flawed in general, it is especially wrong when the population is declining.
[Boston Globe]
[Boston Bubble]
- The Wall Street Journal has identified Boston as one of the metropolitan areas in the US where it is cheaper to rent than to buy. Their data goes from 2001, when it was already cheaper to rent, to 2004 when the difference was even more pronounced. The Economist also published an article showing that renting is cheaper, and although it does not focus on Boston, it is very thorough about including various expenses and tax benefits that the Wall Street Journal left out.
[Wall Street Journal]
[The Economist]
- Consumer Reports has rated real estate in the Boston market as "Overpriced" and pegged it at 24% over the affordable price as of Q4 2004.
[Consumer Reports]
- The number of homes sold in Massachusetts has been plummeting. For the third quarter of 2006 (the most recently reported quarter as of this writing), home sales have fallen 23% compared with the same quarter one year earlier. This despite the fact that home sales were already on the decline in 2005.
[Worcester Telegram]
[WCVB]
[Milford Daily News]
- Foreclosures are rising sharply in Greater Boston and Massachusetts. There were more foreclosures in the first nine months of 2006 than in all of 2005, and as of this writing (in November 2006), Massachusetts is on track to break the all time record in 2006.
[Boston Globe]
[Lowell Sun]
- Boston and Massachusetts are the typical exceptions that people use to qualify their statements when they say that real estate prices don't fall. Boston and Massachusetts prices have fallen in the past, even in nominal terms (when adjusted for inflation, the fall is even more pronounced). Bear in mind that even if prices decline merely by the same percent that they have in the past, the leverage (a.k.a., margin or mortgage) used to purchase the homes must be taken into consideration - the substantially higher number of zero down and negative amortization loans will leave a lot of people with heavy losses and negative equity. [BusinessWeek] [Wall Street Journal (sub)]
- To compensate for property that fails to sell, real estate agents in Boston are falling back on the deceptive practice of canceling the listing in MLS and then creating a new listing so that the property appears as new to the market. There were 10,606 MLS cancellations in the first six months of 2005, up from 9,722 cancellations in the first six months of 2004 and 3,736 in 2001. "The number of canceled listings in Massachusetts has nearly tripled since 2001... In a recent spot check of houses for sale on MLS in Middlesex County, Barry Nystedt, president of the Massachusetts Association of Buyer Agents, said one in four listings canceled between May 25 and June 25 was recreated by the same firm with a new MLS number."
[Boston Globe]
>>> Discuss the Boston bubble now!
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National (US) Info
- Visit the Wikipedia article on the United States housing bubble for another excellent overview of the bubble on a national scale.
- It is actually now cheaper to rent than to buy in many areas even after you factor in accumulated equity and tax savings.
[The Economist]
- Yale professor Robert J. Shiller released the first edition of his prophetic book warning of a stock market bubble weeks before the stock market began its epic crash in 2000. He recently released an updated second edition in late February, 2005 with similar warnings of froth in the real estate market. This book is very highly recommended and is quite readable despite the complexity of the subject.
[Irrational Exuberance]
[Amazon.com]
- The current nationwide housing boom has been fueled in large part by historically low interest rates and an increase in the use of risky mortgages. Buyers may find that their monthly payments will skyrocket once the introductory period of their mortgage ends and the adjustable rate kicks in. In 2005, only $83 billion, or 1 percent, of mortgage debt will switch to an adjustable rate. In 2007, this number will leap to $1 trillion, or about 12 percent.
[Herald Tribune]
>>> Discuss the national and worldwide housing bubbles now!
Boston Bubble News & Interesting Links
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Show Recent Links |
2008-10-31 |
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Boston Bubble Brief, Sep 2008: Real MA SFH prices plunge 17.49%, now below 2001 estimate |
2008-10-31 |
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Mandarin's condos push up Hub average |
2008-10-30 |
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Middlesex North Registry of Deeds: 2008 prices 9.12% below 2007 (nominally) so far, sales way down despite Globe and Herald reports |
2008-10-30 |
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Frank's Financial Fiasco - The road to financial hell was paved with Barney Frank's good intentions |
2008-10-29 |
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Beantown Bust: Boston CSI and RPX August 2008 - RPX down 8.56% YOY nominally |
2008-10-29 |
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S&P/Case-Shiller Boston Index down nominal 4.7% YOY in August |
2008-10-29 |
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Area's rents up 4.2% in one year |
2008-10-29 |
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Quincy looks to force upkeep of foreclosed homes |
2008-10-28 |
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Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: September 2008 |
2008-10-28 |
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Nominal MA house prices fall to 2003 levels |
2008-10-27 |
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Groups confirm deep plunge in MA SFH prices from Sep 2007 to Sep 2008 - Warren Group down 15.6% nominal, MAR down 13.2% nominal, both now in the $200K's |
2008-10-27 |
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Frank to receive award for throwing subsidies at housing industry |
2008-10-25 |
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Sep 2008 MA SFH prices fall 13.2% nominally from Sep 2007 |
2008-10-24 |
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Economic signs in Mass. point to a recession |
2008-10-24 |
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Foreclosures: 2006-2008 for Middlesex North |
2008-10-24 |
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FHFA August 2008 Index (PDF): New England only region up MOM (nominally), but down 4.43% YOY (nominally) |
2008-10-23 |
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Massachusetts housing starts drop precipitously |
2008-10-23 |
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House auctions, foreclosures soar in Brockton - Foreclosure deeds up 77%, but auction announcements skyrocket 132% |
2008-10-22 |
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Foreclosure deeds up 72% in Mass. this year |
2008-10-22 |
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Mass. foreclosure petitions spike from past months, up 18.6% from September 2007 |
2008-10-22 |
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Unemployment Mashup, MA vs. RI September 2008 - MA unemployment still lagging RI |
2008-10-21 |
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Where Homes Are Selling Fastest - Wakefield makes top 10 list |
2008-10-21 |
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Freddie Mac secretly paid Republican consulting firm $2M to kill regulation of self and Fannie Mae |
2008-10-20 |
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State May Need To Brace For More Budget Cuts - Group To Release Report On Economy |
2008-10-20 |
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Buyers take pass on Tom Brady's posh pads |
2008-10-19 |
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The blight next door - As the mortgage crisis deepens, neighborhoods feel the pain as some homeowners just walk away |
2008-10-19 |
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Building Flawed American Dreams |
2008-10-18 |
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HSBC Mortgage forecloses on Ritz condo unit - Financial crisis expands to luxury homeowners |
2008-10-17 |
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State fiscal problems may worsen |
2008-10-16 |
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Home Prices Seem Far From Bottom |
2008-10-16 |
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Feds grant $62 million for Massachusetts, NH foreclosure fight (Bay State gets $43 million) |
2008-10-16 |
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Gov. Patrick to cut $1 billion and cut 1,000 from state workforce |
2008-10-15 |
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Mass. short by as much as $1.5B - Patrick set to announce deep cuts today |
2008-10-15 |
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October mortgages thus far down 34% from 2008, 75% from 2003 at Middlesex North Registry of Deeds |
2008-10-14 |
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Local agencies fear worst as Patrick takes up budget ax |
2008-10-13 |
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Financial meltdown tests Patrick, Mass. leaders |
2008-10-10 |
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Bay State Mayors Gather To Discuss Cuts |
2008-10-09 |
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McCain wants taxpayers to pick up the tab for people who bought houses they couldn't afford |
2008-10-09 |
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Dealey: instead of labeling critics racist, Frank should reflect that it was his own actions that drove poor, black homeowners to financial ruin |
2008-10-09 |
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SNL mock press conference on bailout |
2008-10-09 |
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NARcasting The Future: October 2008 - Yun claims "momentum" |
2008-10-08 |
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Barney Frank past quote on Fannie & Freddie: "I actually don't want to go too far in terms of making them safe and sound. I'd rather roll the dice a little bit..." |
2008-10-08 |
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Barney Frank declares critics racist |
2008-10-08 |
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WBUR/NPR debate: Do buyer agents really help consumers save money? |
2008-10-07 |
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Harvard's Glaeser: Why We Should Let Housing Prices Keep Falling |
2008-10-07 |
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Listen to NPR broadcast: Housing: What went wrong & how to fix it |
2008-10-06 |
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Frank accused of conflict of interest - Boyfriend during 1990's was top exec at Fannie Mae |
2008-10-06 |
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Economy creates surge in homeless Mass. families |
2008-10-06 |
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Expert: Hub study at root of housing crisis |
2008-10-06 |
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Facing Shortfall, Massachusetts Inquires About a Federal Loan |
2008-10-03 |
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House passes revised bailout |
2008-10-03 |
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O'Reilly Tears Barney Frank Apart Over Fannie and Freddie |
2008-10-03 |
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Letter to The Globe lamenting strong bias against home buyers and cognitive dissonance in reporting |
2008-10-03 |
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September 2008 vs 2007 at Middlesex North Registry of Deeds: Deeds down 8%, mortgages down 27%, foreclosures up 8% |
2008-10-02 |
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Beantown Bust: Boston CSI and RPX July 2008 |
2008-10-02 |
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The Arlington Artifice: August 2008 |
2008-10-02 |
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Finance Mess: Most Execs Say Mass. Is in Recession |
2008-10-02 |
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Redfin to offer Boston MLS searches without registration |
2008-10-01 |
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Frank Not Free From Blame In Mortgage Mess |
2008-10-01 |
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Credit crisis hits home - state scrambles for cash |
2008-10-01 |
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Frank's fingerprints are all over the financial fiasco |
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