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Am I stupid for not buying a house now???
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Mr. Guest
Guest





PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 1:53 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is that better for you Mr. Whack Job
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Guest






PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 1:03 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/15-University-Rd-02474/home/8412967
Listed 839K
Sold 890K

Arlington is looking more and more like the new Belmont.
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Guest
Guest





PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 1:45 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/15-University-Rd-02474/home/8412967
Listed 839K
Sold 890K

Arlington is looking more and more like the new Belmont.



Low ceilings.
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Guest






PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:06 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guest wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/15-University-Rd-02474/home/8412967
Listed 839K
Sold 890K

Arlington is looking more and more like the new Belmont.



Low ceilings.


Shows you how strong demand is. And it’s only going up as Cambridge, Somerville, Belmont move out of reach. Despite what the bitter bullshitter in this thread asserts.
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Guest






PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:44 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Shows you how strong demand is. And it’s only going up as Cambridge, Somerville, Belmont move out of reach. Despite what the bitter bullshitter in this thread asserts


Who said I disagree? I certainly don't disagree that prices are off the charts and supply and demand is seriously out of balance. This is obvious. What you and Mr. MIT can't seem to understand is that this will definitely reverse, in the short term, and it's correction will be massive. You seem confident in the opposite. That's great, go buy up all the real estate you can if you think it's a good investment. Bottom line is, it's not. It is a TERRIBLE time to buy coming off a decade of easy money and zero percent interest rates. This hasn't had any impact on these super inflated prices? Ya, OK.
Here's a question for you: What the hell are you doing on a forum titled "Boston Bubble" asking a complete stranger advice on how to buy real estate that's such a great investment? Why don't you just hire a real estate broker. They'll happily blow all the smoke up your ass you want to help you build up the confidence to do something so retarded. Cheers.
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Guest






PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:26 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/15-Cleveland-St-02474/unit-2/home/144799654

Listed 660K
Sold 800K

3 bed 2 bath 1755 SF condo
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Guest






PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:35 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Guest. Your a riot😉. Good point, what type of person inquires a "Boston Bubble" site looking for mental support to buy? There must be a broker trolling this site. Who else would troll a site called Boston Bubble trying to convince people it's a good time to buy? LOSER........
How desperate are these people?
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Guest






PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:08 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Hi Guest. Your a riot😉. Good point, what type of person inquires a "Boston Bubble" site looking for mental support to buy? There must be a broker trolling this site. Who else would troll a site called Boston Bubble trying to convince people it's a good time to buy? LOSER........
How desperate are these people?


Christ, you people are butthurt.
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Elrond



Joined: 27 Feb 2013
Posts: 48
Location: Boston, MA

PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:31 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guest wrote:
I like the way everyone except Elrond signs on as "Guest", so protective of their anonymity.
I admit that I'm also using Guest, but I'm also not big talking and lying.


I don't really see the point of the anonymity here. Unless people are using this forum exclusively to vent.
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Elrond



Joined: 27 Feb 2013
Posts: 48
Location: Boston, MA

PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:37 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Yep, it was an aggressive offer and I probably paid $50-100K under market. It's hard to price assets in a rapidly appreciating market. I took advantage of that. $100K over ask was strategic - I figured that six figures over ask, along with a 12 hour deadline, would invoke a fear of loss by the sellers. Loss aversion is a very strong motivator. You gotta be ready to go if you want to win.

You want 25-35 min outside of Boston, with good schools. That's tough these days. Brookline, parts of Newton, Arlington, Belmont, parts of Lexington, parts of Winchester could work. If you're commuting to North Station via Commuter Rail, Belmont & Winchester are good bets. If you're going to South Station via rail, check out Needham. Except for Arlington, you're probably looking at $1M plus for a decent house or condo. Arlington might offer you something decent in the $800-900K range.


Looks like most of the ppl like bashing. Thanks for some town list.
I checked Arlington but mid school is not so great. May be Winchester and Lexington looks good for everything. What do you think?


Winchester near 93 is SUPER convenient to Boston. You're just about at the point where you can enter the HOV lane and skip the nutty traffic. You get a pretty suburb in a well-managed town with good schools and relatively low property taxes. Besides that recent random stabbing incident at the library, it's very safe as well. As you can tell, I'm a big fan. Sadly there's not much for sale there very often.

Lexington High is always top-ranked in Massachusetts public/private high schools year after year.
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Guest
Guest





PostPosted: Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:38 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Quote:
Shows you how strong demand is. And it’s only going up as Cambridge, Somerville, Belmont move out of reach. Despite what the bitter bullshitter in this thread asserts


Who said I disagree? I certainly don't disagree that prices are off the charts and supply and demand is seriously out of balance. This is obvious. What you and Mr. MIT can't seem to understand is that this will definitely reverse, in the short term, and it's correction will be massive. You seem confident in the opposite. That's great, go buy up all the real estate you can if you think it's a good investment. Bottom line is, it's not. It is a TERRIBLE time to buy coming off a decade of easy money and zero percent interest rates. This hasn't had any impact on these super inflated prices? Ya, OK.
Here's a question for you: What the hell are you doing on a forum titled "Boston Bubble" asking a complete stranger advice on how to buy real estate that's such a great investment? Why don't you just hire a real estate broker. They'll happily blow all the smoke up your ass you want to help you build up the confidence to do something so retarded. Cheers.


Ten years ago, everyone was so certain (and hopeful) that the recession would precipitate a big price drop in the high end towns. It didn't. Prices probably softened or stagnated a bit. But there was no noticeable crash. Washington is not going to allow interest rates to spike, thereby causing another housing crisis. Interest rates will tick up gradually over a period of time.
Of course I may be wrong.
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Guest






PostPosted: Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:43 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

Ten years ago, everyone was so certain (and hopeful) that the recession would precipitate a big price drop in the high end towns. It didn't. Prices probably softened or stagnated a bit. But there was no noticeable crash. Washington is not going to allow interest rates to spike, thereby causing another housing crisis. Interest rates will tick up gradually over a period of time.
Of course I may be wrong


Property in high end towns did correct here 10 years ago. Agreed, it was only about 10%, but the market was stagnate and listings took months/years to sell.The reason it wasn't a complete crash was due to a decade of low rates and years of manipulative bond buying to suppress rates. So, in part your correct. However our debt was 7-8 trillion 10 years ago. Since then all the bond buying and Government policies drove that to now 21 trillion. This is compounding because it is now significantly higher than our GDP can support. The Fed has already stated they will not repurchase current bonds and are 1 Year into a 3 Year rate rising cycle. The combination of these two monetary tightening will at some point cause a correction to begin. This time however dropping the fed fund rate will be much less effective than in 2008. This time we have 21 trillion in debt to sell each year and the Fed will soon be unloading 50 billion per month more as they unwind from the previous buying. People think the Fed alone set the rate. While this is true for the short term rate, it is not for the long rates. Those are set by the market, and with 21 trillion new issues annually and our unwinding, the market will push yields higher. Next time, the Fed won't be able to suppress rates as much. My projections tell me a 30 yearcould spike as high as 9% in the early stages of the next correction. When the Fed kicks in, they will be unable to get this down as much. They will try, but with so much debt and low GDP my analysis suggests that even if they drop the fed fund rare back to zero, the long end will demand 6%-8% higher.
Of course, I may be wrong
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Guest
Guest





PostPosted: Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:24 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Quote:

Ten years ago, everyone was so certain (and hopeful) that the recession would precipitate a big price drop in the high end towns. It didn't. Prices probably softened or stagnated a bit. But there was no noticeable crash. Washington is not going to allow interest rates to spike, thereby causing another housing crisis. Interest rates will tick up gradually over a period of time.
Of course I may be wrong


Property in high end towns did correct here 10 years ago. Agreed, it was only about 10%, but the market was stagnate and listings took months/years to sell.The reason it wasn't a complete crash was due to a decade of low rates and years of manipulative bond buying to suppress rates. So, in part your correct. However our debt was 7-8 trillion 10 years ago. Since then all the bond buying and Government policies drove that to now 21 trillion. This is compounding because it is now significantly higher than our GDP can support. The Fed has already stated they will not repurchase current bonds and are 1 Year into a 3 Year rate rising cycle. The combination of these two monetary tightening will at some point cause a correction to begin. This time however dropping the fed fund rate will be much less effective than in 2008. This time we have 21 trillion in debt to sell each year and the Fed will soon be unloading 50 billion per month more as they unwind from the previous buying. People think the Fed alone set the rate. While this is true for the short term rate, it is not for the long rates. Those are set by the market, and with 21 trillion new issues annually and our unwinding, the market will push yields higher. Next time, the Fed won't be able to suppress rates as much. My projections tell me a 30 yearcould spike as high as 9% in the early stages of the next correction. When the Fed kicks in, they will be unable to get this down as much. They will try, but with so much debt and low GDP my analysis suggests that even if they drop the fed fund rare back to zero, the long end will demand 6%-8% higher.
Of course, I may be wrong


OMG. A respectful, well expressed disagreement in this forum. Who would have thought?


Prices stagnated and corrected during the great recession, but more so in the so-called less desirable towns. I don't think recessions, monetary policy, and other economic forces affect the well off as much as they do the rest of us.

People are waiting for a "big crash" in towns like Winchester and Lexington.
They hope a $1.3M house will drop to $800K. I'm very skeptical.
As I said, I could be wrong
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:05 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Prices stagnated and corrected during the great recession, but more so in the so-called less desirable towns. I don't think recessions, monetary policy, and other economic forces affect the well off as much as they do the rest of us.


I believe the next correction will be massive. Basically, a reversion to the mean of what would have happened in 2008 if not for the Fed manipulating rates at the expense of our nation debt to GDP ratio. This fake economy is just that, fake. The truth lies in the fact that our GDP can't get above 2-2.5% even with massive tax incentives. This is because the economy is really not that good. The rise in stock and house prices is only a direct inflationary result of the Fed policies. Basically, they have driven up asset values because they removed all other options to invest and get a decent yield. Now, housing is also getting a slight boost from the pick up in job growth and wages in our area. Both of these will reverse as the interest rate suppression stops and reverses. I may be wrong.
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Guest






PostPosted: Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:53 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Crash predications will go out of the window if Amazon setup HQ2 here. I may be wrong
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