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Low inventory for 2017
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Real Estate Guy
Guest





PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:59 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://youtu.be/KoiUTuMAJIQ
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 158
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:40 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Regardless of which side one takes in the comments on the last YouTube link, it's worth watching the segment from 8:45 to 11:00 if you're concerned that we might be in another boom / bust cycle.

What do others make of the disconnect between rent increases and home prices on David Stockman's Tweet?

http://bit.ly/NoInflatRE

PS. Thanks for post to the housing bubble blog!
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog/
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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Guest






PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:24 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

How is it possible that housing prices in Boston are so high, yet just thirty miles south in Providence, housing prices even in desirable areas around Brown University have been stagnant for over a decade? Why are businesses concentrating in just one city in New England? This is idiotic.

New England is a big region, spread the wealth, yeah?
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 21, 2017 3:21 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
How is it possible that housing prices in Boston are so high, yet just thirty miles south in Providence, housing prices even in desirable areas around Brown University have been stagnant for over a decade? Why are businesses concentrating in just one city in New England? This is idiotic.

New England is a big region, spread the wealth, yeah?


Its just the growth of tech/bio. Silicon valley has priced out so many, companies look to diversify the work-force. The next best place for similar talent is Seattle, Boston, NYC

These companies have no choice but to set up close to an available sized work-force.

The barrier of entry for 6-figure jobs used to be ivy-league dr, lawyer, now that barrier is totally broken down with the growth in tech jobs. Ivy league not required and has nothing to do with 'who you know'

.. Now when the bubble pops......
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Guest






PostPosted: Fri Jul 21, 2017 7:30 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
How is it possible that housing prices in Boston are so high, yet just thirty miles south in Providence, housing prices even in desirable areas around Brown University have been stagnant for over a decade? Why are businesses concentrating in just one city in New England? This is idiotic.

New England is a big region, spread the wealth, yeah?


What is the rent of 2 beds condo there in thirty miles south of providence, compares to desirable areas in Boston? What is the property tax rate of that region? Is there any international housing demand in that area? Any big development there that will transform the neighborhood? Any big corporation there that provides well paid jobs?

Forgot about Providence, just 30 miles out of Boston, you should see stagnation of home prices in many towns there.
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 158
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 2:43 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Re: spreading the wealth. Anyone reading the kind of indepth analysis of causes driving the New Urban Crisis? Author Richard Florida offers some insights to threads above.

Some things flybbelow his radar, for example, Facebook & social media are driving #RealEstate Speculation, Compare behavioral economics

NOW:

http://bit.ly/RESpecFaceBK

THEN:

Guess what percent of homes sold over asking price in overheated markets 25 years ago?
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog/
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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Guest






PostPosted: Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:41 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

RealEstateCafe wrote:
Re: spreading the wealth. Anyone reading the kind of indepth analysis of causes driving the New Urban Crisis? Author Richard Florida offers some insights to threads above.

Some things flybbelow his radar, for example, Facebook & social media are driving #RealEstate Speculation, Compare behavioral economics

NOW:

http://bit.ly/RESpecFaceBK

THEN:

Guess what percent of homes sold over asking price in overheated markets 25 years ago?


Dear RealEstateCafe, you have very good posts and please keep up your good work.

Richard Florida is right, but unfortunately, his calls for zoning reform will never happen. Homeowners are selfish and make sure the politicians they elect will do everything to not drop the value of their homes. Over the past 20-30 years, this has lead to strict zoning laws where the only things being built anywhere are luxury apts and houses. Trick down economics is a lie because 2 million dollar houses and million dollar condos don't cause lower priced housing to go down. Now we end up in a situation where the bottom half of the market is smoking hot and the top of the market is ice cold.

I'm not sure if social media is really causing housing prices to go up. People tend to be friends with other people in their same age and economic levels. It just might mean that their friends are starting to get married or having kids or have better jobs and are looking for houses. This might be a case of correlation does not imply causation.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 25, 2017 3:37 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

JP 2 bedroom 1 bath triple decker condos far from Centre Street near Forest Hills are going for $500k now. Most without parking. HOAs around $200/mo. JP can be pretty nice but it's not THAT nice and it's super inconvenient to get around anywhere unless the destination is off the orange line.

At a certain point you just kind of laugh at these prices. Either give in and accept it or move away from the area.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:08 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
JP 2 bedroom 1 bath triple decker condos far from Centre Street near Forest Hills are going for $500k now. Most without parking. HOAs around $200/mo. JP can be pretty nice but it's not THAT nice and it's super inconvenient to get around anywhere unless the destination is off the orange line.

At a certain point you just kind of laugh at these prices. Either give in and accept it or move away from the area.


Similar 2BD/1BA apts in JP rent for around 2300/month. Hi rents are the main reason why home prices are so high in Boston.
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 158
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:24 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Laugh at those prices and know that SOME real estate agents have been laughing at homebuyer's in leading agent-to-agent chat rooms for over 18 months. Those agents believed that 2016 would be the turning point for the housing market, as did the Keller Williams cofounder in this story a year ago:

https://twitter.com/realestatecafe/status/889893566155194369

CROWDSOURCING:

What happened to the correction? If it's already starting in some places, like SF, when will it arrive in Boston markets? What are other people hearing now from friends and financial advisors, or from social media and forums on real estate portals?

If you've concluded it makes sense to buy now, because interest rates are under 4% again or high rents cited by Guest, what are you doing to "future proof" your homebuying decision?

Use the Empathy Map in this blog post to help you collect your thoughts

http://bit.ly/FutureProofRE2017
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog/
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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Guest






PostPosted: Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:16 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Similar 2BD/1BA apts in JP rent for around 2300/month. Hi rents are the main reason why home prices are so high in Boston.


It is very hard to say if it was high rent that caused high home price, or the other way around. Since 2011, I feel it was the take off of home price due to ultra low interest rate and money printing, which brings the rent up to par with mortgage amount.

Certain sections of JP are nice and safe, but certain sections of JP I am not really recommended. The nice sections are attracting students, young professionals and high paying folks working in longwood medical area, that should well justify the high rent and high home price there.
But the sections near the big housing project, and alone border of Roxbury, those areas filled with illegal immigrants and gangs, and just don't make you feel safe walking through at night. I wonder how much price difference between the good and bad sections of JP.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:42 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="Anonymous"]
Anonymous wrote:

Similar 2BD/1BA apts in JP rent for around 2300/month. Hi rents are the main reason why home prices are so high in Boston.

Rents were also $2000/mo when condo prices were $300k (I know because I lived in JP). Rents have not doubled, but condo prices have.

Boston area obviously has a lot of rich people. But when a JP condo is now worth as much as my parent's colonial with two-car garage in a nice school district within 128, it's time to rethink value. Schools in JP suck balls too. Where are all the yuppies sending their kids to?
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:58 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:

But the sections near the big housing project, and alone border of Roxbury, those areas filled with illegal immigrants and gangs, and just don't make you feel safe walking through at night. I wonder how much price difference between the good and bad sections of JP.


The area in JP bordering Roxbury along Forest Hills and close to some low income housing is where I was truly shellshocked at seeing $500k triple decker condos.

My experience is the floor of the market is very high and there's not a huge price difference between really nice and marginally nice. It's almost like everyone is trying to squeeze every last bit of disposable income in buying a place, any place, they could still afford. People with some real disposable income can still afford to be a little pickier. There just aren't that many people who can afford a million dollar place no matter how low interest rates go.

I just don't understand the appeal of JP once prices are over half a million. Prices like that make me want to leave the whole area and look into places like Pittsburgh, where half a million still gets you a nice big house in a tree-lined neighborhood with walkable areas to nearby restaurants.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:04 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="Anonymous"]
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

Similar 2BD/1BA apts in JP rent for around 2300/month. Hi rents are the main reason why home prices are so high in Boston.

Rents were also $2000/mo when condo prices were $300k (I know because I lived in JP). Rents have not doubled, but condo prices have.

Boston area obviously has a lot of rich people. But when a JP condo is now worth as much as my parent's colonial with two-car garage in a nice school district within 128, it's time to rethink value. Schools in JP suck balls too. Where are all the yuppies sending their kids to?


Please show me a colonial with two-car garage in a nice school district within 128 for sale for under 500k.
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 158
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:05 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bravo to guest post regarding condo prices doubling in JP. Few people realize how much the housing recovery has been driven by artificially-low interest rates that have "juiced" purchasing power by an estimated 33%.

Your comment about Yuppies & schools points to one of the key arguments made in this myth-busting post article year:

http://bit.ly/B2CityMyth

A similar headline today talked about older millennials leaving the city:

http://bit.ly/OldMillenOUT

So who's driving up prices in JP? Here are two groups to consider.

Group 1: Empty-nesters want to move from the suburbs to hip neighborhoods; and student debt burdened millennials, 40% who are putting down less than 5%, should be cautious about engaging in bidding wars against their parents peers. Boomers can withstand a downturn in value without going underwater. Millennials can't.

http://bit.ly/iBurbRE

Group 2: A headline in the NYTimes this weekend points to market & price distortions generated by external demand from #SpeculatorsWithoutBorders

http://bit.ly/SpecNxtDr

The myth-busting article in the first link above also takes a shot at them:

"So who’s buying them (overpriced urban condos)? It’s wealthy foreign nationals, largely as investments. In many cases these units are not really residences but pieds-a-terres for the world’s wealthy; in some markets, as many as 60 percent of units are not primary residences."

The question is what to do? I'd love to see BostonBubble readers use tomorrow, the National Day of Action on Twitter for #OurHomesOurVoices to raise awareness of the impact #SpeculatorsWithoutBorders are having on housing affordability. See Tweet for more info:

https://twitter.com/realestatecafe/status/889921880341262336

Have you bid against foreign buyers? What's your story, perspective on the need to tax #SpeculatorsWithoutBorders and other real estate investors as they do in Singapore?
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog/
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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