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Fed Reserve and Interest Rates
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 12:35 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

True. Condo market in Cambridge and Boston is still hot. Seeing signs of faltering in very high end(over 2-2.5mil). Demand under that is high. I'm not sure how long that's sustainable given the bio surge and new job growth in the city, but seems more resilant than high end suburbs.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:58 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Real Estate Guy wrote:
True. Condo market in Cambridge and Boston is still hot. Seeing signs of faltering in very high end(over 2-2.5mil). Demand under that is high. I'm not sure how long that's sustainable given the bio surge and new job growth in the city, but seems more resilant than high end suburbs.


Seems like much of the development in Cambridge has been apartments, particularly the massive (and continuing) expansion around Alewife. Central/Kendall is slated for more luxury apartments as well. Rents at these places are still very high, but at some point that supply will depress growth in rents thereby slowing the condo appreciation. Feels like it has to happen. I guess it depends on how badly people want to be near the T, though, and how many jobs are housed in the new commercial Cambridge projects.

Porter had a development allegedly switch to a hotel rather than condos...
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 5:14 pm GMT    Post subject: Bubble Reply with quote

http://www.newsweek.com/quora-question-are-we-housing-bubble-565516
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 12:40 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-01/fed-s-cut-in-huge-bond-holdings-may-be-messier-than-yellen-hopes
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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 3:40 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: Bubble Reply with quote

Real Estate Guy wrote:
http://www.newsweek.com/quora-question-are-we-housing-bubble-565516


It is interesting that many people reportedly "in the know" - economists, academics, real estate experts, and certainly realtors - state this is not a bubble.

This guy doesn't agree:

http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/2017-housing-bubble/
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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 11:58 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: Bubble Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Real Estate Guy wrote:
http://www.newsweek.com/quora-question-are-we-housing-bubble-565516


It is interesting that many people reportedly "in the know" - economists, academics, real estate experts, and certainly realtors - state this is not a bubble.

This guy doesn't agree:

http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/2017-housing-bubble/


The reality is that most of the US is not in a bubble. Even in MA, once you get outside the 495 belt and into central and western MA, there is no bubble. There is a bubble in the Boston area and many US cities. The only debate is when it will pop. It's not going to pop in the next recession, where you might see a 5-10% drop. It's likely going to follow the regular 20 year cycle real estate cycle and will pop sometime in the middle of 2020s.

Every one has an agenda and wants prices to go up or down to fit their agenda. You want prices to go down so your kids can afford to buy and you can make money flipping so you will see what you want to see, not reality.
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 3:45 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

What's reality? You acknowledge we're in a Bubble in Boston. I agree outside 495 is less frothy, but it's definitely still inflated. In speaking on a site entitled "Boston Bubble", and acknowledging there is a bubble, how do you know it won't pop until 2025? You may be right, I'm just curious what the thought process is. Given the fact the Fed Reserve is raising rates now, and projects to do the same for the foreseeable future(2017,2018, 2019) wouldn't that suggest a market impact sooner than 2025? What about the debt they have committed to not repurchasing on their balance sheet? This "roll off" of 4-1/2 trillion of securities they purchased with "printed money" will effect the cost of treasuries in the market place(from the saturation and lack of purchasing demand-because they are no longer buying), which will have a direct correlation to raising mortgage interest rates even higher than just simply raising the Fed Fund rate? If all of this is happening now, in 2017 and 2018, why wouldn't the bubble pop prior to 2025?
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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 4:30 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

@Real Estate Guy.

Thank you. I for one, have no children and have zero interest in "flipping". If I move/buy, I plan to stay there for many years. Naturally, anything can happen, e.g. Donald Trump became President of the United States.

I think the overbuilding of "luxury" apartments and condos in all major (and even minor) US cities is going to have an impact at some point. I'm just an armchair observer and reader of articles on the internet but this reminds of the condo boom of the late 1980's that did not end very well.

I am thinking there will be a correction by the end of 2018. I would rather it happen this year but I only have an "agenda", no special powers over markets and or the Fed.


Smile
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 234
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 2:17 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

As this #REBubble morphs into crisis, Fed will pretend it isn't happening again:
http://bit.ly/BubbleWorries

Now that the Supreme Court says cities can sue banks, who else is to blame?
http://bit.ly/Sue4REBubble

(Link above, an intranet post shared via Basecamp, includes list of housing experts who missed calling the last bubble & call to action.)
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Wed May 10, 2017 2:22 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great articles. My personal favorite was a quote I saw in the comment section after the article. A reader quoted Thomas Jefferson, who I believe understood the situation we're in better than anyone. He even predicted it. It reads:
"Thomas Jefferson warned us long ago, “If the American people ever allow private banks (the Fed since 1913) to control the issue of their money, the banks and corporations that will grow around them, will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless.”

Where are we at people?
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Wed May 10, 2017 2:23 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great articles. My personal favorite was a quote I saw in the comment section after the article. A reader quoted Thomas Jefferson, who I believe understood the situation we're in better than anyone. He even predicted it. It reads:
"Thomas Jefferson warned us long ago, “If the American people ever allow private banks (the Fed since 1913) to control the issue of their money, the banks and corporations that will grow around them, will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless.”

Sure does seem like today, doesn't it?
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PostPosted: Wed May 10, 2017 10:01 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ugh, one of the articles: "the Great Senior Sell-Off" predicted 2020 as the year of the crash. Ugh. Hope they are wrong as I need/want it to happen sooner. Yes, I have an agenda!

Laughing
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:34 pm GMT    Post subject: Fed Reserve Reply with quote

https://www.thebalance.com/how-is-the-fed-monetizing-debt-3306126
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:57 pm GMT    Post subject: Federal Reserve Reply with quote

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4066115-housing-bubble-back
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 234
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:02 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: Federal Reserve Reply with quote

Real Estate Guy wrote:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4066115-housing-bubble-back


Amusing final paragraph:

"Predicting the imminent end of this mother of all financial manias is tiresome for both writers and readers, so let’s just assume it will end eventually, and that its demise will be spectacular."

Zillow article / Tweet says "highly likely good deals will exist in late summer for patient buyers." Agree or disagree?

https://twitter.com/realestatecafe/status/874709056388247552

Interest rates are at seven month lows, but the Fed is expected to raise interest rates again tomorrow. Want to meet offline to exchange perspectives / predictions about what impact that will have on the housing market?

Meet at Cambridge Common near Harvard Square or Joshua Tree in Davis Square? Other suggestions for #REonTap?

http://bit.ly/REonTap
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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