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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:05 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Real Estate Guy wrote:
The truth in the most recent housing data:

The Housing Market Has Essentially Stalled https://seekingalpha.com/article/4109883?source=ansh $ITB, $KBH, $LEN, $PHM, $TOL


If Amazon comes to town, the Boston area housing market will get un-stalled very quickly. Imagine 50,000 more upper middle class families coming to MA and looking for places to rent or buy. Amazon's decision will come in the spring. If they decide on Boston, renters will need to decide to buy or move out of state. That's just the cold hard facts.

https://www.boston.com/news/business/2017/10/20/boston-submits-its-bid-for-amazon-aiming-for-50000-jobs-and-a-transformation
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admin
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Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1803
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:20 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The libtards in MA don't recognize the consequences of their actions. When you raise the minimum wage, it causes a ripple effect where everyone's wages goes up. Rising wages causes rent spikes because people are able to afford rents in better areas and forces more renters to buy. This is basic Economics 101.


Econ 101 starts with supply and demand. Increasing the cost of the good, in this case labor, shifts the supply curve up, which reduces demand. That is, increasing the minimum wage decreases the number of jobs in the most basic model. Some number of employers would not be able to operate any more and some would turn to the substitute good of automation. Yes, the inflation that you point out would eventually shift the demand curve up too, but that change will lag and ignores that we will be permanently losing some jobs to automation (that would happen later anyway).

And yes, Amazon building HQ2 here would probably outweigh the above.

Quote:

If Amazon comes to town, the Boston area housing market will get un-stalled very quickly. Imagine 50,000 more upper middle class families coming to MA and looking for places to rent or buy. Amazon's decision will come in the spring. If they decide on Boston, renters will need to decide to buy or move out of state. That's just the cold hard facts.


Option #3: work for Amazon. Option #4: work for any remaining company that draws from the same labor pool as Amazon.

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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:59 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Amazon comes to town, the Boston area housing market will get un-stalled very quickly. Imagine 50,000 more upper middle class families coming to MA and looking for places to rent or buy. Amazon's decision will come in the spring. If they decide on Boston, renters will need to decide to buy or move


I agree with you. Boston Amazon would prolong our bubble. How much do will depend how much liquid the Fed Central Bank is still putting in the market. Given how out of whack the Boston real estate market is I personally doubt Amazon will come here. They have many options and don't need this central location from an operations stand point. Why would they come to an area where housing is extremely limited and grossly over valued? Seems to me they would have much happier employees where 100k jobs could actually translate into a good standard of living. In Boston 100k supports a shit shack and an ice cream cone.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:52 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Real Estate Guy wrote:
I agree with you. Boston Amazon would prolong our bubble. How much do will depend how much liquid the Fed Central Bank is still putting in the market. Given how out of whack the Boston real estate market is I personally doubt Amazon will come here. They have many options and don't need this central location from an operations stand point. Why would they come to an area where housing is extremely limited and grossly over valued? Seems to me they would have much happier employees where 100k jobs could actually translate into a good standard of living. In Boston 100k supports a shit shack and an ice cream cone.


How is the market "out of whack" or "over valued"? Take any of the premier metrowest towns and look at mean (or median) household incomes. I got shit to do so I'm not going to bother right now. I bet there's a lot of families in the top 5% of the US income distribution. Me and my wife are in the 97th percentile. And there are many, many households out there earning more than us. In other words, this is a wealthy city. Big surprise that real estate is expensive, eh?

You can look forward to your bubble bursting when there's a precipitous drop in high-paying jobs in metro Boston. Fat chance, but hey, you wait.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2016/01/07/think-boston-housing-expensive-now-wait-five-years/6qTjKdarDT2AdZkpqrJWaJ/story.html
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 22, 2017 12:50 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
How is the market "out of whack" or "over valued"? Take any of the premier metrowest towns and look at mean (or median) household incomes. I got shit to do so I'm not going to bother right now. I bet there's a lot of families in the top 5% of the US income distribution. Me and my wife are in the 97th percentile. And there are many, many households out there earning more than us. In other words, this is a wealthy city. Big surprise that real estate is expensive, eh?


Obviously Boston has high salaries as compared nationally. One does not need to be Einstein to point that out. The discussion was about 100k jobs in Boston. 100k is not in "the 97th percentile" as you allude you are. Regardless, 100k goes much less further than in does elsewhere. I think it's obvious Amazon goes somewhere that will benefit their workers standard of living.
As far as your comment that Boston's prices are high because of high income, this is obvious. Boston however is not immune to corrections. Any one with half a brain can research historical data on this. "I got shit to do" so I'll leave that to you.
For anyone that makes good income and wants to buy in Boston, I personally think it's great. I live here. I have and will buy here when I like the numbers on something. However, tight now is the stupidest time to do so, but hey, you go for it....it ain't my money.
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 22, 2017 3:24 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Real Estate Guy wrote:
I agree with you. Boston Amazon would prolong our bubble. How much do will depend how much liquid the Fed Central Bank is still putting in the market. Given how out of whack the Boston real estate market is I personally doubt Amazon will come here. They have many options and don't need this central location from an operations stand point. Why would they come to an area where housing is extremely limited and grossly over valued? Seems to me they would have much happier employees where 100k jobs could actually translate into a good standard of living. In Boston 100k supports a shit shack and an ice cream cone.


How is the market "out of whack" or "over valued"? Take any of the premier metrowest towns and look at mean (or median) household incomes. I got shit to do so I'm not going to bother right now. I bet there's a lot of families in the top 5% of the US income distribution. Me and my wife are in the 97th percentile. And there are many, many households out there earning more than us. In other words, this is a wealthy city. Big surprise that real estate is expensive, eh?

You can look forward to your bubble bursting when there's a precipitous drop in high-paying jobs in metro Boston. Fat chance, but hey, you wait.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2016/01/07/think-boston-housing-expensive-now-wait-five-years/6qTjKdarDT2AdZkpqrJWaJ/story.html


Expensive is relative. Almost every house within 5 miles of the proposed Amazon site at Suffolk Downs is under 500k, with most in the 300k-400k range. The problem is that most wannabe buyers are delusional and think they deserve to live in a "better" area.
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:27 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

FYI:

50 new millionaires in Boston today.

Nutonomy. 50 employees, worked out to $10Million per employee. ... but realistically each employee will probably get 'just' $1 Million.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/delphi-acquires-self-driving-startup-nutonomy-for-450-million-dollars.html
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:46 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
50 new millionaires in Boston today.

Nutonomy. 50 employees, worked out to $10Million per employee. ... but realistically each employee will probably get 'just' $1 Million.


Good for them. It's always nice to see local hard work pay off. Congratulations Nutonomy!
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:57 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/26/pending-home-sales-drop-to-lowest-in-nearly-3-years.html
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:22 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/01/weekly-mortgage-applications-fall-as-rates-move-even-higher.html



https://youtu.be/bCSbvzv-GII
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:23 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Real Estate Guy wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/01/weekly-mortgage-applications-fall-as-rates-move-even-higher.html



https://youtu.be/bCSbvzv-GII


Medford appears to be bucking the trend. Almost +13% yoy and #4 hottest housing market in USA.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/millennials-fuel-americas-hottest-housing-markets/
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:14 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Medford appears to be bucking the trend. Almost +13% yoy and #4 hottest housing market in USA


Medford is up because it has become an alternative to the overheated, more desirable locations. It's increase is a direct result of over flow. It will fall, as will the others. Tick Tock.
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Elrond



Joined: 27 Feb 2013
Posts: 29
Location: Boston, MA

PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:40 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't imagine Medford will fall much, if at all. I think it was always until recently an undervalued neighborhood. With the Green line most likely coming in, quick accessibility to Boston, and prices still so much lower than Cambridge/Somerville, I think it's pretty safe.

Admittedly, I am surprised to see the very old, very small housing stock selling for roughly 400k/unit, but I guess that's just where we're at in Boston, i.e.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/18-Wedgemere-Rd-Medford-MA-02155/56283286_zpid/

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/23-Doble-Ave-Medford-MA-02155/56283902_zpid/
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:51 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

It will correct. Low rates for ten years......it's unsustainable. Sure, Massachusetts inside 128 will always be better than other areas, but it has run up an extreme premium for that fact. The premium is a bubble. The values are a bubble. Whether prices fall or crash is the question. My bet is on a correction of 20%, and then stagnation for at least a decade or longer. But opinions are like assholes. Everybody has one. Happy purchasing if you feel it's good for you.
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:37 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trump picks Powell. Powell is Yelled with testicles. The swamp wins. America will meet it's downfall via Keynesian economics continued. Just look at Greece and any other country destroyed by central banks. Trump had a chance to change the Fed by putting in more of an Austrian path. Could have helped turn our ship with Taylor or Wash, but decided it was in his best interest to go with the coercion status quo to give him a few years of looking good by sacrificing our dollar even further. This will end badly for Americans. Americans will learn that being a sleep at the wheel while all this is going on will lead to a future reduction in our standard of living the likes of which the country generation will not fathom until it's in their house.
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