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Newton housing market still hot? guage this listing
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:51 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: Is this house in preforelosure? Reply with quote

Former Arlingtonian wrote:
I just looked this how up in http://www.masslandrecords.com/MiddlesexSouth/Default.aspx

Last two entries are
Street Name Rec. DateSubmit Book/Page Type Desc. Street # Town
FESSENDEN ST 8/1/2014 64017/359 AFFIDAVIT NEWTON
FESSENDEN ST 5/30/2014 63681/278 ORDER OF NOTICE NEWTOn

The owners took out a $500K Mortgage in 2005 and they have a HELOC.

No more detail on the entries??


"19 fessenden" is still on the market. If the market was still crazy hot it would have sold in the first week. Its either sh**thole or the market has cooled off since the rate hike. Or its going through a very long multiple-bid situation?? (unlikely to take this long)

If it's forced to do a price cut, may be worth using this HELOC data to attempt a low-ball.... There is no such thing as an 'insulting' offer if the seller is desperate enough!
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Former Arlingtonian



Joined: 23 Oct 2013
Posts: 141

PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:33 pm GMT    Post subject: Well said Reply with quote

If the seller is bleeding and bruised you paid too much.

I feel for the couple selling. They borrowed more than they could afford when they bought the home and probably used HELOC to make life affordable because they HAD to buy into Newton school system!
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:02 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: Well said Reply with quote

Former Arlingtonian wrote:
If the seller is bleeding and bruised you paid too much.

I feel for the couple selling. They borrowed more than they could afford when they bought the home and probably used HELOC to make life affordable because they HAD to buy into Newton school system!


The house is overpriced and will not sell without a 40-50k discount like the house below. Newton isn't as hot as most people think, at least not that part of Newton.

https://www.redfin.com/MA/Newton/24-Maynard-St-02465/home/11432825
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Guest






PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:17 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: Well said Reply with quote

Guest wrote:
Former Arlingtonian wrote:
If the seller is bleeding and bruised you paid too much.

I feel for the couple selling. They borrowed more than they could afford when they bought the home and probably used HELOC to make life affordable because they HAD to buy into Newton school system!


The house is overpriced and will not sell without a 40-50k discount like the house below. Newton isn't as hot as most people think, at least not that part of Newton.

https://www.redfin.com/MA/Newton/24-Maynard-St-02465/home/11432825


To be fair, 24 Maynard looks like a 'pre-fab' house from the 50's designed for WWII veterans. ie build it quick and cheap!

Upon further investigation, for 19 fessenden, it's direct next-door neighbor (11 fessenden st) sold for 6 months ago for 865k (original ask 800k). So 19 is being unrealistic:
- rates have increased since the neighbor sold
- he wants 30k OVER the closing price which already was a bidding war

I predict 19 will go through 2 price cuts and sell for around 820k - 8540k. Under 800k if the stock market crashes in the next month or 2

BTW, that area looks like a nice family area, not fair to compare to the SNOB villages such as Waban.. is there something else about that particular area?
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Guest






PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 7:53 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

19 fessenden just went pending. Looks like demand is still here 'around' current prices

very surprised, we must be under estimating the 'school' factor
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:27 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
19 fessenden just went pending. Looks like demand is still here 'around' current prices

very surprised, we must be under estimating the 'school' factor


I am not surprised at all. How could housing market go down suddenly, when interest rate is still relatively low compare to historical trend? Also Stock market is still at the all time high. Newton is one of top seek-after areas in greater boston. It will be one of last towns to go down in price when housing market go bust.

For those wishful thinking folks, here is ugly truth of timing the housing market. If everyone, including yourself still want to buy a house, housing price is not going down. If one day, even you don't want to buy a house, then the market is hitting the bottom.
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Former Arlingtonian



Joined: 23 Oct 2013
Posts: 141

PostPosted: Sat Jan 28, 2017 11:44 pm GMT    Post subject: Exactly Reply with quote

People perception of investment doesn't change for a long time - and it often seems like it will never and then....

Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos was the toast of the town and now!

Remember when Solar companies were a great investment....

Remember 2003-2006 in Housing,,,,

One day it will all change - sadly there is no way to predict the precise day - month - year.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:57 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
One day it will all change - sadly there is no way to predict the precise day - month - year.


Former Arlingtonian,
This is the key. Obviously with housing recovery for a few years since 2009, there is much bigger chance for a bubble bursting event in the coming 5 years. BUT, if you don't know which stage of housing bubble we are in, if you don't know the bubble bursting time, then it is hard for you to convince people to just wait.

What if there still 30% of price increase from today's price before the bubble burst, then after that there will be only 20% price drop occur, before some sort of bullshit program like QE or low rate kick in to save the day, and price going back up since then? In that case buying in today's 'high price' is actually not a bad move. Remember what just happened in the last bubble.

I know Yellen will most likely jack up rate 3 times this year, but then she is out, someone point by Trump will take over the FED, then no one know which direction the FED rate will go.
Now think about this, everyone know jacking rate up quickly will burst the bubble, but why would Trump want to burst the bubble and destroy the economy? It is easy for him to say bad things about the low rate policy during campaign, but now he is running the show, he will try whatever it takes to keep the economy going, including keeping the bubble inflated.

The minimum wage just got jack up 10% in Mass area, from 10 to 11 dollar. That is some purchase power artificially injected into the market to catch up with inflation. I see there are more of this to come, eventually to $15. That will be 50% more than what entry job makes today! The most important thing is, minimum wage hike WILL reset price floor for entry level home price for the region. If the minimum wage hike makes shithole and crapshack cost $300,000 in average, a single family in Newton will cost close to 1 million. That is just the ugly fact.

Also Trump is trying to boost up economy with massive infrastructure build, which should boost up economy short term, before the bigger crash. By the time all these housing bubble prolonging steps were done, it might carry the bubble for another couple of years at least.

There could be black swan to destroy all these 'good plan' from policy makers and burst the housing bubble this or next year, and I am hoping for it as well. As opportunity surface only when blood is on the street.
But based on the current trend, the bubble is not reaching its limit yet.
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Guest






PostPosted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 2:59 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Former Arlingtonian,

having lived through a few bubbles now (.dotcom, 2009, also some local bubbles in 2002 i think), what is "generally" true is:


"The bubble will pop AFTER you buy". Which means, when the last bear turns into a bull.

The bubble becomes so insane, that ALL sanity is ignored. You start to trade away all compromises
- we'll do 3 br instead of 2br and just have 1 less child
- next to freeway, we'll get used to the noise
- lets do a 5 year ARM to keep payments low. We'll be selling in 5 years anyway
- oh there is a interest only option!

A few things to keep the market in MA afloat
- stimulus, could improved the public transportation/traffic given enough $$. The liberals could make a backdoor deal with Trump to get a large piece of the pie
- New law in 2018, employers cannot ask for prior salary when giving a job offer. MA becomes attractive state for ppl looking to bump salaries

A black swan is the most likely trigger.
- North Korea launches a missile
- Euro implodes
- China econ implodes

Out of these, China affects MA most. So many overseas Chinese studying in MA, its booming. This keeps the rent high and also the really rich ones buy houses for their kids (as currency hedge)
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Guest






PostPosted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 3:44 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Quote:
One day it will all change - sadly there is no way to predict the precise day - month - year.


Former Arlingtonian,
This is the key. Obviously with housing recovery for a few years since 2009, there is much bigger chance for a bubble bursting event in the coming 5 years. BUT, if you don't know which stage of housing bubble we are in, if you don't know the bubble bursting time, then it is hard for you to convince people to just wait.

What if there still 30% of price increase from today's price before the bubble burst, then after that there will be only 20% price drop occur, before some sort of bullshit program like QE or low rate kick in to save the day, and price going back up since then? In that case buying in today's 'high price' is actually not a bad move. Remember what just happened in the last bubble.

I know Yellen will most likely jack up rate 3 times this year, but then she is out, someone point by Trump will take over the FED, then no one know which direction the FED rate will go.
Now think about this, everyone know jacking rate up quickly will burst the bubble, but why would Trump want to burst the bubble and destroy the economy? It is easy for him to say bad things about the low rate policy during campaign, but now he is running the show, he will try whatever it takes to keep the economy going, including keeping the bubble inflated.

The minimum wage just got jack up 10% in Mass area, from 10 to 11 dollar. That is some purchase power artificially injected into the market to catch up with inflation. I see there are more of this to come, eventually to $15. That will be 50% more than what entry job makes today! The most important thing is, minimum wage hike WILL reset price floor for entry level home price for the region. If the minimum wage hike makes shithole and crapshack cost $300,000 in average, a single family in Newton will cost close to 1 million. That is just the ugly fact.

Also Trump is trying to boost up economy with massive infrastructure build, which should boost up economy short term, before the bigger crash. By the time all these housing bubble prolonging steps were done, it might carry the bubble for another couple of years at least.

There could be black swan to destroy all these 'good plan' from policy makers and burst the housing bubble this or next year, and I am hoping for it as well. As opportunity surface only when blood is on the street.
But based on the current trend, the bubble is not reaching its limit yet.


There's so much misinformation on this board. If you are planning to buy, don't listen to Former Arlingtonian, who has never taken an economics class in his life, except maybe home economics. High interest rates will come back when the millions of manufacturing jobs come back from China and the US runs 400 billion trade surpluses again, which is never. His warnings are for the 48%'ers who really should never buy. For those of you who should buy, you need to time the market to get the best possible price - during phase 1 of the real estate cycle.

We are in the beginning of phase 3 of the real estate cycle. Now is a bad time to buy. If you can afford to wait, save your money, stop wasting your time going to open houses and get ready to buy in 8 years from now.

https://www.crowdstreet.com/education/article/four-phases-real-estate-cycle/

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARVAC

https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/great-18year-real-estate-cycle
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Former Arlingtonian



Joined: 23 Oct 2013
Posts: 141

PostPosted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 5:31 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear Guest,

Thank you for the kind words.

Not sure what I wrote to be the target os such negativity!

My core belief is if you don't infuriate a lot of people then you are doing something wrong. Wink Glad to have raised your blood pressure.

Best regards.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:53 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Former Arlingtonian wrote:
Dear Guest,

Thank you for the kind words.

Not sure what I wrote to be the target os such negativity!

My core belief is if you don't infuriate a lot of people then you are doing something wrong. Wink Glad to have raised your blood pressure.

Best regards.


I think the "Guest"'s point was, being too bearish does not help anyone (same as being too bullish).

Take for example, "24 Maynard, Newton" which someone brought up. It sold for 675k (orig ask 750k). 675k is about $2,553 a month after 20% down.

so about $2000 AFTER tax-deduction (this includes mortgage+taxes)

Now, it looked like a crap-hole to me, but if someone had 2 kids and their number 1 issue was good schools. As a parent I would sacrifice space, layout and extra-nice house so my kids have a decent peer group and a decent chance at education.

$2000 would be about similar to rent in that area


We cant expect $1 million houses to drop 50% 'overnight' (with the current FED interference, that same house would only be about $750k). There are still pockets of opportunity for ppl willing to sacrifice
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Former Arlingtonian



Joined: 23 Oct 2013
Posts: 141

PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:30 am GMT    Post subject: Not predictable Reply with quote

My point is that people talk buying is so much better deal and the risk is worth it.

Go talk to a bankruptcy lawyer and ask what percentage of clients who file for divorce or bankruptcy own a home.

I know of at least 3 families in my circle where both husband and wife got downsized in the last 2-3 years. Yes, all the couples have advanced degrees and have worked steadily through out life.

Buying to save on taxes. Most people don't realize that you get a standard deduction for being married and for a child. When you buy a home you itemize your deductions to take get the mortgage write off and give up the freebie standard deduction that all the renters get.

My Dad had a good friend was a top executive for Time Magazine and he and his wife didn't buy a house until they were in the fifties or sixties. Lots of people build wealth without owning a home. My point is that a lot of mythology as been created by the real estate industry and a lot of it is bunk.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:08 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: Not predictable Reply with quote

Former Arlingtonian wrote:
My point is that people talk buying is so much better deal and the risk is worth it.

Go talk to a bankruptcy lawyer and ask what percentage of clients who file for divorce or bankruptcy own a home.

I know of at least 3 families in my circle where both husband and wife got downsized in the last 2-3 years. Yes, all the couples have advanced degrees and have worked steadily through out life.

Buying to save on taxes. Most people don't realize that you get a standard deduction for being married and for a child. When you buy a home you itemize your deductions to take get the mortgage write off and give up the freebie standard deduction that all the renters get.

My Dad had a good friend was a top executive for Time Magazine and he and his wife didn't buy a house until they were in the fifties or sixties. Lots of people build wealth without owning a home. My point is that a lot of mythology as been created by the real estate industry and a lot of it is bunk.


According the the Federal Reserve in 2013, the average home owner has a net worth 36x more than the average renter. I'm sure the difference is much greater now. Buying a house is like going to college to make more money in your lifetime. Most people will be better off going to college, but not the people who borrow 200k to study art.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2014/pdf/scf14.pdf
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Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1798
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:11 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: Not predictable Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:

According the the Federal Reserve in 2013, the average home owner has a net worth 36x more than the average renter. I'm sure the difference is much greater now. Buying a house is like going to college to make more money in your lifetime. Most people will be better off going to college, but not the people who borrow 200k to study art.


Correlation does not equal causation. It could be that people with more than a tiny net worth to begin with are more likely to buy a home.

- admin
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