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What's really going on in Boston
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 7:34 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jesus, $2250 for a 1 bed in Boston is still pretty high, but I don't see it going much lower, if at all. All you need is 2 rich/stupid undergrads per 1-bed apartment to keep prices up.

As late as 2013, my GF and I had a 1-bed in Harvard Square for $1400!
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 6:38 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Still sitting on the sidelines, a lowly renter who has saved oodles of cash. I looked at a couple of properties in Malden two weeks ago. One sold within 2 days, the other within a week. Malden is the new Cambridge!

I have heard that buying a home is an emotional decision but everyone else's emotions and opinions are driving me a bit nuts. The unrelenting and intense social and family pressure to be an "owner" continues at an even greater pace despite the fact that bubble warnings are in the news and a correction seems to be on the not so distant horizon. Not sure about you other renters, but the "owners" (e.g. mortgage holders) in my periphery tend to not like to hear any "excuses" or talk about market conditions...instead the mantra is "what are you waiting for?" "how long are you going to stay in that apartment" and "prices are just going up up up, if you don't buy now you may be priced out forever!"

Has anyone else noticed how especially brand new "owners" tend to be quite smug, not to mention judgmental?
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 2:58 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

A house in Malden could very well lose some value in the short term if (when) there's a correction. But if you plan to stay there for several years, the value will come back. A place in a nice neighborhood within a half mile to a T station will always be in demand.
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 234
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:05 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Has anyone else noticed how especially brand new "owners" tend to be quite smug, not to mention judgmental?


+ + +

With more news today suggesting that a real estate slump is unfolding -- pre-election, pre-interest rate changes --

http://bit.ly/MassREDipOct2016

http://bit.ly/RESlumpLinks

has anyone noticed the opposite?

How many homebuyers, particularly those who paid over asking price in a bidding war, now regret that decision? Some estimate that that 1 in 4 buyers experiences "buyer's remorse. Has the uncertainty post-election created a new kind of buyer's remorse -- #TrumpREmorse?

If you had know that Trump would be elected, would you have purchased in 2016? Pay the same price?

If you're experiencing #BiddingWarRemorse or were involved in an in-house sale, you MAY have legal recourse particularly in light of this recent Supreme Court decision in CA on conflicts of interest in real estate:

http://bit.ly/CAProtectsREConsumers
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The Real Estate Cafe
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97a Garden St.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:30 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Jesus, $2250 for a 1 bed in Boston is still pretty high, but I don't see it going much lower, if at all. All you need is 2 rich/stupid undergrads per 1-bed apartment to keep prices up.

As late as 2013, my GF and I had a 1-bed in Harvard Square for $1400!


According to Zillow today, Cambridge has 937 available rentals between $2500 and $10,000 per month. I'm not sure what that means but methinks some of these new luxury apartments are sitting empty.
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 234
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:06 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good catch, Thanks for posting! For some time, observers have been concerned about an oversupply of luxury rental units in Boston. Has that situation rolled over to Cambridge, now? Can someone else FACT CHECK?

http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_rent/

Included a screen grab and made same request via Twitter, inviting Curbed Boston to offer their assessment:

http://bit.ly/FactCheckGLUT

They've used used the word #GLUTpocalypse repeatedly in their coverage of the local rental market including these references in Sept. 2015:

http://bit.ly/AptGlutBosRE

http://bit.ly/7FallBosRE2015

But by the end of 2015, they were more tentative, writing: "For now, it would appear that the Great Luxury Glutpocalypse that was supposed to have seized Boston et al this year is instead coming incrementally (and anecdotally). Change, but not seismic. Stay tuned."

http://boston.curbed.com/2015/12/31/10850446/boston-rents-dropping
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2016 1:25 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="RealEstateCafe"]Good catch, Thanks for posting! For some time, observers have been concerned about an oversupply of luxury rental units in Boston. Has that situation rolled over to Cambridge, now? Can someone else FACT CHECK?

http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_rent/

Unable to insert a screenshot or image but here's the URL that shows 972 rentals $2500-10,000K at 8:25PM on 11/30/16:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_rent/Cambridge-MA/house,condo,apartment_duplex,mobile,townhouse_type/3934_rid/662622-2650490_price/2500-10000_mp/0-500_hoa/42.416486,-71.052104,42.340275,-71.172267_rect/12_zm/[/img]
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2016 1:40 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh, and BTW there are 5 more rentals in Cambridge between 10,000 -12,000K available: Very Happy

http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_rent/Cambridge-MA/house,condo,apartment_duplex,mobile,townhouse_type/3934_rid/2650490-19878675_price/10000-75000_mp/0-500_hoa/42.416486,-71.052104,42.340275,-71.172267_rect/12_zm/
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2016 2:13 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

i wouldn't get my panties in a knot - zillow has shit data. i'm sure there are some vacancies, but that site can't be trusted. i've seen houses list months after they sold. and then there's the "pre-foreclosure" crap. zillow should be treated as an approximation, at best.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:23 pm GMT    Post subject: Greater Boston Housing Report Reply with quote

http://www.northeastern.edu/dukakiscenter/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-Housing-Report_R2.pdf
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:26 pm GMT    Post subject: Greater Boston Housing Report Reply with quote

http://www.universalhub.com/2016/bostons-economic-success-leading-failure-region


http://www.northeastern.edu/dukakiscenter/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-Housing-Report_R2.pdf
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 4:09 pm GMT    Post subject: "Record Breaking House Prices" Reply with quote

A concerned relative, regarding my lack of a mortgage or title to property (yes, I am a lowly renter) called today ostensibly in an effort to get me to buy a house/condo/shack already!

The concerned relative heard the news today of record breaking prices and sales in November 2016 and that one really cannot time the market. What this well-meaning relative was trying to say was, time to jump on the bandwagon and:
Buy Now or Be Priced Out Forever.

How does a lowly renter respond? Rolling Eyes

http://www.bostonherald.com/business/real_estate/2016/12/mass_single_family_sales_soar

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/record-sales-prices-in-greater-boston-housing-market-in-november-300383450.html
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 234
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:47 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greetings, "Lowly renter,"

Wonder how many other renters are getting pressure from baby boomer relatives or parents to "Buy Now or Be Priced Out Forever." Depending on their age, you might ask them how well that went in 2005 or one of the previous boom / bust cycles in real estate.

If you would like to engage them in dialogue, here are some talking points to exchange with your well-meaning relatives:

EXCERPTS: Responses to Boston Herald article

1. “The gain in November single-family home sales was the first double-digit percentage increase since June."

One needs to look at the 26% surge in SF sales and ask what's going on behind the numbers. November sales reflect offers made in September and October so were made before headlines revealing a slumping housing market, see links in:

http://bit.ly/CrowdSlumpBosRE

2. "Year-to-date single-family sales increased 12 percent through November to 55,622 homes statewide, with a median price that was up 1.8 percent to $346,000."

While the sales price reflects a median rather than paired sales analysis, the increase is barely keeping pace with inflation for 2016:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

3. “With the ever-presence of multiple-offer situations and bidding wars, homes are selling in fewer days and for higher prices,” Sarno said. “The desire for homeownership in our market is extremely high and, paired with the limited supply of homes for sale, it creates upward pressure on prices, making this a great time for homeowners to put ... homes on the market.”

Industry spin is notoriously seller-sided and therefore self-serving for listing agents. Newspapers no longer have sufficient resources to fact check statements like the above, so tend to repeat sound bites. You might be surprised to see what "bidding war scorecards" for particular towns reveal over the past six months. Here's a sample from the beginning of that period, June 2016:

http://bit.ly/REonTap_061716
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:25 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: "Record Breaking House Prices" Reply with quote

"How does a lowly renter respond? Rolling Eyes"

You can tell the concerned relative to mind his own business. You need to do what is right for you, not what is right for others. Everyone's needs are different. Buying a house is like going to college, it's not for everyone.

Happy New Year!
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Former Arlingtonian



Joined: 23 Oct 2013
Posts: 141

PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:33 pm GMT    Post subject: parabolic rises are a sign of a coming crash Reply with quote

Bill Wendel,

What the lowly renter should understand - and I am a renter - is that parabolic up moves in prices in any market ALWAYS are an the tell of a coming crash.

2016 will go down as the year you to go short or everything housing related.

Sadly, Wall Street has people trained to buy when prices are rising fast or at their heights.

The lowly renter should recognize not buying when everyone else has bought - is just like choosing not to eat two pieces of pumpkin pie plus the cheesecake at Thanksgiving dinner. Discipline! Wink
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