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Latest reason housing rebound is supposedly right around the

 
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Joined: 14 Jul 2007
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Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:08 pm GMT    Post subject: Latest reason housing rebound is supposedly right around the Reply with quote

Use this forum thread to discuss the following link.

Description: Latest reason housing rebound is supposedly right around the corner: immigrants - "assuming Congress doesn't impose further restrictions." AP article uses anecdotes from Billerica and Boston suburbs.
URL: http://www.thebostonchannel.com/money/13782341/detail.html
Info/Broken?: http://www.bostonbubble.com/link_info.php?id=1045

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:26 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

This article is complete spin! They think immigrants will save the housing market, well take a look at this paragraph and see why its going to make things worse:

"Patricia Ortiz and her husband Sebastian cut back on dining out, nights at the movies, and even opted for a civil wedding ceremony instead of a big church affair so they could afford to buy their $389,000 three-bedroom colonial.

Patricia Ortiz and her husband took out an adjustable-rate mortgage to buy last year in the Boston suburb of Billerica, figuring the risk of seeing their current $3,000 monthly payments rise is offset by the value of having a place they and their newborn daughter can call home.

"Once you take the jump, you find ways to make it work," said Ortiz, 31, a supervisor at a dental insurance provider and a naturalized citizen. "But it's always in the back of my mind that if I don't make it, I am going to have to pack up and go back to Panama. You kind of feel like you have to strive for everything you do."


Also note that they wrote about this article now but the homeowners they talk to bought LAST YEAR when leading for these ARMs were easier to get. Good luck getting that now.
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:42 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guest wrote:
This article is complete spin!


Yeah, I was going to write that I was still reeling from the spin, but I haven't had a chance to figure out what direction it was coming from yet. Plenty of "news" articles are just regurgitations of what the NAR throws out there, and this could easily fall into that category. However, there is some serious spin regarding immigration reform, too. What's the real reason your house's value is declining? Why it's obviously because those evil Democrats blocked Bush's immigration reforms - you had better vote Republican next year. I sense that there is a strong undercurrent in the article even if I'm a little off in identifying what it is exactly.

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AgentGrn



Joined: 28 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:07 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's definitely a feel-good piece about the market ... the spin may be coming from the paper itself since it's got all that prime advertising revenue to keep earning.

For me, I have a tough time thinking of naturalized citizens as immigrants. This country is a huge melting pot of citizens, and at the root, we're almost all immigrants. Once you naturalize, you're American. That's it. And the issues affordability are very real for most of us.

I'm not alone in thinking of immigrants as the illegals that have been swarming almost all parts of the country. And there's no way they are going to be able to prop up the market.

That said, I have to wonder what the wider economic impact of this particular couple's decision is when a lion's share of their income is going into their residence and for keeping it up. None of that goes back into savings, or keeping the economy humming along.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:13 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

AgentGrn wrote:
It's definitely a feel-good piece about the market ... the spin may be coming from the paper itself since it's got all that prime advertising revenue to keep earning.

It's an Associated Press piece by Mark Jewell which seems like it is being reprinted everywhere, so I don't know if it's one particular paper paying favors to its advertisers. Maybe that's how it started and it happened to get picked up by the AP.

AgentGrn wrote:
For me, I have a tough time thinking of naturalized citizens as immigrants. This country is a huge melting pot of citizens, and at the root, we're almost all immigrants. Once you naturalize, you're American. That's it. And the issues affordability are very real for most of us.

Right. By corollary, immigration has been a factor for a very long time, which seems like it would make it unlikely that it would be responsible for a reversal of market trends - it has always been an integral part of market trends.

AgentGrn wrote:

I'm not alone in thinking of immigrants as the illegals that have been swarming almost all parts of the country. And there's no way they are going to be able to prop up the market.

Unfortunately, they may have been used to prop up the market temporarily. There is an article frequently referenced on certain blogs about the strawberry picker earning $15K a year buying a home for $720K. (I have no reason to think he was an illegal, I just think the income range and foreign origin are relevant.) Obviously, this is not sustainable (even if it wasn't obvious to Angelo Mozilo), hence the current subprime contagion and the emerging Alt-A problems.

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