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Why the Boston area will not be a tech leader anymore
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 2:10 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

The LSE is basically Univ of Chicago or MIT economics with a lot of math electives. The difference is that it's focused exclusively on areas where the halls of power reside. I believe they host half of London University's overall law offerings in addition to economics and finance. Big wigs like Soros, JFK, Rockefeller, a slew of parliament members, and PMs had attended for their masters after undergrad at a Oxbridge or Ivy. In general, that's a different identity from that of a world class science and engineering school which wouldn't attract any dignitaries. I can't imagine a Kennedy attending an MIT aerospace engineering class but instead, being across the street at Phi Beta Epsilon partying it up with the Wellesley visitors.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 2:55 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am very out of my range here, so please take what I say with a grain of salt. If you write code, you still deserve the love. You freaking brain.

I do see it interesting that although the curriculum is most likely very similar among most business schools people make blind projections about the graduates as if a Sloan guy will be the one who'll have the technical capacity. I'd like to see the resumes of the Sloan professors; I wonder how many of them engineers are.

I guess that's what people pay for acquiring a reputation that precedes you whether it is true or not.

I don't know if you've seen the recent Harvard Study of the state of Housing. It was prepared by the Graduate school of Design (architecture and landscape architecture) and the Kennedy School (politics). It seems that it has numbers that are a couple of years old (typical Harvard study, Monday morning quarterback never in time to help when the page is blank). Anyway, why didn't they ask any of the Business School guys to weigh in? What do politicians or designers know about financial fundamentals? The GSD has trouble turning out well rounded architects; I wonder if they would admit that they are out of their range. I guess the Harvard Brand gets stamped on a lot of things...

The prior "Harvard" tag on the export to India article in a prior post was just from a doctoral thesis design student. I wonder if the kid ever designed anything that has ever been built. FYI, to get a building permit, you need a Registered Professional to stamp permit drawings and although the professional needs to be licensed in the area having jurisdiction, and the work doesn't need to be done there, it certainly has to be done under the supervision of the registered architect that stamps the drawings. This may be loosely enforced, but when they are doing it in India, that really screams out loud how obnoxiously illegal it is. I am annoyed that the American Institute of Architects (whom I pay a lot of money to be a member) and the Harvard kid didn't comment on how unprofessional, and potentially dangerous this practice is. I guess we need to have a building catastrophe and then wait a couple of years to hear from Harvard. The trouble is that that catastrophe has already happened, The MGM Grand's fire which was a result of the poor details that didn't stop the flow of smoke which killed all the people. These little time consuming details like fire stopping, fire safing, fire dampers on mechanical ducts, fire separations, smoke exhaust systems, and all that junk we want to off shore is the stuff that caused the catastrophe. I learned that in my professional training. If these "designers" ever decided to get on the professional track, they would have known about the MGM Grand and would have piped in accordingly. This is as bad as a Harvard Lawyer not knowing the Miranda Case. Academics are a joke for the most part when it comes to professionalism, but the AIA not weighing in, that is just so bad.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 3:39 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

This whole thread kinda sucks Mad

And it's not anything against anyone here but the topic matter and how our society's become an MBA run banana republic with places like London Economics being viewed as some educational and elite haven for globalists and VIP traders but then science schools being trashed for not producing an older boys network of bankers and politicians instead of creative technology workers. And the sad thing is that that's the game and everyone knows it but is powerless to stop the train from running itself off the cliff.
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MIT Guest
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:33 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

One point of hope to consider - when did all these MIT grads decide to focus on business or engineering? The numbers that were cited here were for recent grads, so if they made the decision 4 or 5 years ago, that was in the trough of the dotcom bust and probably skewed a lot of choices. If I had been entering school around that time I may have said "oh crap, all software development is heading to India and I had better find something else to do." In the last year or two, however, demand for software engineers at least has really surged and things don't look so dire (though it is still enough of a risk that I refuse to use my current salary when calculating how much I can afford when buying a house). I wouldn't be surprised if a few years from now the composition of the graduating class had more engineers.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 1:24 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

to the Mad guest: If you're a man of action, this stuff will build your confidence to step forward.

I came from a rich town and I've seen some real boneheads get great opportunities in the financial sector. Connections... If you have a decent fundamental base, tear a few pages out of some of the other guy's playbook and you'll have it all. It will be painful to learn about something that is hard to swallow and flies in the face of the fundamental knowledge you have, but it is the reality we live in and the more clear you can observe reality the better off you are, hell, observing reality is scientific right?
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 1:26 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
In the last year or two, however, demand for software engineers at least has really surged and things don't look so dire (though it is still enough of a risk that I refuse to use my current salary when calculating how much I can afford when buying a house). I wouldn't be surprised if a few years from now the composition of the graduating class had more engineers.


Here's what I'm hearing, the upcoming generation seems to be fielding a two pronged approach to finding a career and that's something like a Google startup or finance/MC, medical school or finance/MC, patent law or finance/MC. With that in mind, unless new tech firms sprout up (as oppose to deadwood places like IBM, Boeing, and likes), MIT will be no different than any other elite private college like Williams or Dartmouth where medicine/law/banking are the primary destinations for a vast majority of graduates. And as others have stated, these areas attend to have a lot of alumni cronyism who hire one another from prep schools and such as oppose to persons with the best research projects, co-ops, etc like in the good old days of scientific meritocracy.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 1:48 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just like they can acquire a techie, you can acquire a blueblood.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 2:52 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
you can acquire a blueblood


Yeah, but doesn't that mean that you need to be a trust (or hedge) fund beneficiary before having attended high school? I imagine it's hard to pull off when your parents aren't descendents of a Sir John Templeton.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 3:53 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's easy take a page out of this guy's book.

http://bubba.org/nlcv/images/bathrobe.jpg
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 3:58 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

dang it.

http://photos23.flickr.com/33545799_d64f5af2dd_m.jpg

Ohh, here it is baby,

http://www.geocities.com/cousin_eddie2000/
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 7:07 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ok, so the conclusion is that real estate in eastern Massachusetts will be in a permanent bear market, much like it is in Detroit today or Houston (after the mid-80s oil bust) because MITers will not be creating new industries but instead will be shuttling down to NYC to place calls and puts on stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies for i-banks, HFs, and management consulting to private equity firms. Now that's a doomsday scenario and highly unlikely because MIT/Harvard will always be breeding new companies even though they might not hire in the numbers like they did in the past.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 7:32 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

YOU GOT IT!! Wink

Great article in the Herald:

http://news.bostonherald.com/editorial/view.bg?articleid=1004670

This kind of talks about how people get so absorbed about something that doesn't affect the majority of people. It gets at assessing the scale of an issue, which is what I am deriving out of your note. This, I also think is right to a great degree. Think about how we react when we look at the Dow even though it is a very tiny segment of the market.

I think that it is one of those tidbits that "points to the fact that...” Look at it like the worst Major League Baseball Player most likely makes more than some of the best marathoners in the world. It points to two things: the fact that we don't value engineers like we do the financials, and second: there isn't much opportunity for engineers here. Now what if engineers were more likely to be able to solve many of the challenges ahead of us? Engineers are the ones with the machetes and they create the cutting edge. The financial sector does a fabulous job self promoting but the amount they are sucking out of us is parasitic. I think that they will be like the mosquito that sucks and sucks until it explodes.

Seriously and most importantly, I'd bet that at Raytheon, one or two top engineers provides the work for about at least 75 overhead people maybe more. Without those top engineers, hundreds and hundreds of support staff won't have jobs. Even in the Military, for every one person who see’s actual combat, how many support personal are out there? Take a guess.
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john p



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 7:43 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's a clue:

It's called the "Tooth to Tail Ratio".
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 9:15 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
It points to two things: the fact that we don't value engineers like we do the financials, and second: there isn't much opportunity for engineers here. Now what if engineers were more likely to be able to solve many of the challenges ahead of us?


John, here's the concern, during the past century, 1920s till 2000, the culture of science and engineering and the culture of finance "loan sharking/pool hustler" and management "bullshit artistry" consulting were separated via the fact that engineers were insured a middle class existence. It wasn't the length of Mass Ave nor the Charles River stretch to the Harvard Business buildings but a distinct, cultural divide. At the same time, people could start in engineering, during their 20s and 30s, but gradually move into management, during their 40s and 50s, to lead the next crop. Today, much of that is moving the Asia and parts of eastern Europe so what's happening is that everyone's becoming a conman and unfortunately, what that does is create a bifuricated society of haves (stakeholders, CEOs, prop traders) and havesnots (everyone else).
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India Guest
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 11:40 pm GMT    Post subject: Not so dire Reply with quote

MIT Guest wrote:

If I had been entering school around that time I may have said "oh crap, all software development is heading to India and I had better find something else to do." In the last year or two, however, demand for software engineers at least has really surged and things don't look so dire (though it is still enough of a risk that I refuse to use my current salary when calculating how much I can afford when buying a house).


As a Mechanical+Software Engineer from India, currently working in Boston, I feel compelled to add a few lines here. It is very true that the offshoring industry in India and China is becoming very large, and moving up the value chain from grunt design/manufacturing/software to more sophisticated tasks. However, I do not believe that good engineers/designers/consultants here in the US need to worry too much. The ones who *will* take a hit are those who are not well grounded in the fundamentals of their discipline. There is an increasing emphasis on quality worldwide, and people are coming to the realization that an international class product costs international class money.

Salaries of top engineers in India, who can compete with the engineers from top schools in USA are not very different. The wage difference is of the order of 50% at most, which, as a fraction of total operating cost, may not amount to more than 10-15% at most for a company. With the depreciation of the dollar this difference can also be wiped out in a few years. Already at the highly skilled level, a major shortage of people is looming in India, particularly in engineering. This is primarily due to the very low quality of most engineering graduates, and quality always trumps quantity when something mission-critical needs to get done.

Coming to the real estate angle, a 3-bedroom flat in Bangalore in a decent area costs approximately $170,000. However, the infrastructure in terms of power/roads/connectivity/water/traffic etc is far inferior to that in Boston. Also, govt policies in India fluctuate according to populist wishes, and it is safer to own investments in the US even if they appear more expensive at face value. The US uses resources very efficiently, probably because of the presence of a large market, and a high degree of competition. Power/bandwidth/telecommunications/transportation/capital equipment costs are actually much cheaper in the US compared to India. Ironically, as competition increases in a market segment, it also improves the quality of that segment, and the market itself expands. I am sure there must be a business term for this phenomenon. Also, all the engineering talent in the world is not going to lead to a successful product automatically. The innovation infrastructure here in the US is just amazing. The links between the legal framework, the financial framework, the market, and the regulatory framework is something I have never seen in my life. I do not understand why lawyers and regulators are so reviled in the US. They are so vital to the innovation infrastructure. Being able to conceive a product, get a feel for the relevance in the marketplace, get the financial backing, the legal backing, patents, etc is, in my opinion as important as the process of actually making the product. Havin a strong law-enforcement system is also crucial to ensure property rights are protected. This innovation infrastructure takes a very long time to build, and in that process, costs equalize around the world.

I believe US grads who get an engineering degree, and then get an MBA are never really going to have to worry, as long as they put both those degrees to good use in their position. It also opens the door to entrepreneurship at a later stage after obtaining enough on-the-job experience. Putting off a house purchase because of the fear of offshoring would be a major overreaction. Putting off a house purchase because of distorted rent/price ratios in the market, however, would be prudent.

In summary, I am sure Boston will continue to do well in the long run once the short term excesses are worked out. Institutions like MIT/Harvard cannot simply be built in a few years in some other part of the world.
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