bostonbubble.com

[happy]

This is a pointless website. Perhaps this may answer the admin's query about lack of debate in these forums.

There are studies out there that both allege and deny the existance of a world wide housing bubble. The Economist is a nice source to quote, but they are very conservative- and if they want to point fingers, English house prices have appreciated far beyond those even in Boston over the same period of time. Look at Europe, Australia.

Or look closer to home and read the New York Times, for example- a recent article discussed the "soft landing" of the Denver market and suggested that if prices here decline they may soften but not crash as in denver. Economics, particularly those with global variables, is hardly ever a sure thing.

If individuals deciding whether or not to buy don't do their homework (for example, by relying on one openly biased site for the information that this crucial decision is based on) they get what they deserve. However, I don't think one can ignore the findings of Harvard's Joint Center for Housing or many other research institutions throughout the country who don't paint as dark a picture as the sources on your homepage. Whatever your personal stance, Caveat emptor.

[admin]

So you are saying that it is pointless to discuss things that you can't know for certain? On the contrary, I would say that those are the things most worth discussing as that will help you determine what outcomes are worth preparing for.

I encourage you to post links to the Denver and Harvard articles that you are referring to so that we can discuss them. Please post links to other studies that you think refute the existence of a housing bubble as well. So far, an overwhelming number of the studies that I have seen support the hypothesis that there is a housing bubble, and I would love to see more references that draw a different conclusion from actual economic data.

I do recall a clip that I think was on Bloomberg radio a little while ago about the Denver housing market, and perhaps that is related to what you are referring to. The premise, if I am remembering correctly, is that many of the conditions which people say are going to lead to a housing bust actually started a few years earlier in Denver and the market there has merely leveled off, so the same thing could happen nationally. Is that the gist of it? One very important factor that overlooks is that interest rates are still at historical lows nationwide, and that includes Denver, so Denver has not yet been subjected to what could be the most damaging factor of all - rising interest rates.

It's curious that you compare real estate in the US with England and Australia given that those countries have seen declining prices recently. Australia has actually be falling hard for awhile now - they were one of the first countries to reach the tipping point. It's not a very comforting comparison, anyway. Just because there are countries in worse situations than the US does not mean that the US is not in a bad situation.

And yes, people should absolutely use more references than just this website if they wish to determine which way the real estate market is headed. That's why there is a big disclaimer on every page stating that you should use multiple, reliable, independent resources. This site is here as a reference repository for those wishing to research the risks of the real estate market, particularly in Boston.

- admin

[guest (un re est)]

As to your comments:

-Not sure why you would call this site pointless. Your inability to recognize the purpose of this site speaks for itself. Moreover, your own admissions indicate your bias.

Seems to me you may be a liberal, which is fine. Not sure why one would be so quick to dismiss one source (as you call conservative) and not another. That in itself, again, is bias.

Your comparisions to Europe, Australia, etc., again, are self-serving and bias. What about Japan? Have you compared economic factors between Boston and Europe, Australia. This site is called Boston Bubble, not US Bubble. I don't think Australia and Europe, per capita, have lost the jobs and population that Boston has since 2000. A simple fact.

As you mention in the NY Times article re: the soft landing - I'm sure that many would welcome that opposed to a crash. It may just be wishful thinking for many as the realty of it will be based on the individual's situation. Purchases based on speculation is simply musical chairs. At some point there will not be a greater fool coming along. It will top out and many speculators will be left with property they simply wanted to turn over for a quick profit and now can't.

Your last paragraph is an insult to buyers in general as you assume that by them doing their homework is limited to research on just this site. Then you even go on to say that they would get whatever they deserve. So again, I'm not sure what your bleeping point is.

You seem to want to only acknowledge sources that are accordance with your views, not ones that you don't agree with. Talk about bias. Please

Caveat venditor!!!

[Guest]

And I quote: "You seem to want to only acknowledge sources that are accordance with your views, not ones that you don't agree with"

I believe that by bringing a counterpoint to a site with a singular viewpoint, "happy" was initiating the only "debate" on the site. So it's amusing and ironic that you have countered with name-calling. By the way, the Economist is well known as an *economically* conservative rag, so the intellegent reader would know that was what was meant. I don't believe it matters to the housing market one way or another if you're politically conservative or liberal. (wink)

BTW, I hear Phoenix is the fastest growing city in America. Perhaps those worried about the Bos mkt should speculate in RE there... there are a few boom years left before Phoenix runs out of water...

Glad to see a thread degenerate to a flame in two posts. Shan't return. Enjoy.

[guest again]

Well, seems to me that "happy" got a debate. Is that not what you point out in your response? - which by the way, was a feeble and pathetic counter to the prior.

It may aid in the effectiveness of your comments to learn how to spell.
(intelligent is with an i).

By the by, who's doing the name calling?

Please feel free, if you so decide to grace this site with your return, to indicate exactly where the name calling occurred.

[admin]

To the original poster, it looks like half of the support for your argument just disappeared. Denver's landing is no longer so soft - foreclosures are rising and are already up 14.5% over the first half of 2004. "There were 6,159 foreclosed homes for sale in Colorado in July, ranking the state No. 5 in the nation, according to the study by Foreclosure.com, based in Boca Raton, Fla." That is No. 5 overall, not per-capita, so that is much worse than it may sound at first. See:

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/real_estate/article/0,1299,DRMN_414_3987678,00.html

I believe that leaves the Harvard study that you mentioned as the remaining piece of supporting evidence that you offered up. Please post a link for that if you still have it around.

Thanks,
- admin

[admin]

The Denver market is continuing to decline. See the following article from today's Rocky Mountain News for details on the declines in both prices and sales:

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/real_estate/article/0,1299,DRMN_414_4260693,00.html

To the original poster, do you still think that Denver is an accurate predictor of where the rest of the nation is headed?

- admin

[Guest]