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How will prices change in 2009 for Greater Boston?
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How will prices change in 2009 for Greater Boston single family homes?
Down more than 10%
62%
 62%  [ 5 ]
Down 5 - 10%
25%
 25%  [ 2 ]
Down 0 - 5%
12%
 12%  [ 1 ]
Up 0 - 5%
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Up 5 - 10%
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Up more than 10%
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Total Votes : 8

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samz



Joined: 19 Feb 2008
Posts: 102
Location: Medford, MA

PostPosted: Wed Jan 21, 2009 3:09 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Brian C wrote:
samz wrote:
I still feel like parts of Boston are stuck in a state of stalemate/denial. I recently got a listing from ZipRealty for a house in Arlington (one of only 29 SFH on the market there). The asking price is $549K, but according to the "Estimated Value" page, comparable homes sold for $464K, Zillow estimates it at $469K and CyberHomes estimates it at $462. Who knows what the actual selling price will be, but it doesn't sound like they're going to go quietly into the post-bubble world.

(FYI, the MLS# is 70861184)
Also note that seller bought the house in 2003 for $475k. With realtor fees and eventual selling price, im sure it will be a break even transaction.


Interestingly enough, the house is already under agreement, presumably for close to asking since it's so quick. Note that $475k in 2003 is $550k in today's money due to inflation.


So, taking inflation and realtor fees into account, it's actually a capital loss. Still, not exactly the spectacular bubble bursting that one might expect, given the overall economic mess.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Wed Jan 21, 2009 3:23 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the economic meltdown in September got people laid off toward the later Fall and early Winter. We have the largest number of people laid off since the early 80's so I think many people that recently bought or got caught in ARMS or both will increase the supply of homes this Spring.

If it weren't for this Recession, I thought things were going to bottom. Lots of people are refinancing and the low rates will increase buying this Spring. I don't have the data to weigh both sides of the equation right now.

If I were buying, I'd target the neighborhood and price point and monitor how many days on the market and the price movements to see what your particular market is doing.
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samz



Joined: 19 Feb 2008
Posts: 102
Location: Medford, MA

PostPosted: Wed Jan 21, 2009 4:15 am GMT    Post subject: Re: Overall Tax Rates Down 4.5%? Only For The Rich. Reply with quote

admin wrote:

Are they rich because they make their money through capital gains or do they make their money through capital gains because it is the most efficient tax-wise? You can't help but encourage something with the tax code. Having a tax code that favors the building of businesses seems like a pretty good option to me. At the very least it creates jobs and encourages technological progress.
<snip>


So, my feeling about this issue, with no supporting data whatsoever, is that in the last 10 or 20 years capital gains have been generated mostly by fancy-dancy financial transactions with no impact at all on the real world (well, until recently). I think we all have an image in our mind of how it *should* work: I take my money and invest in a new shoe factory; the factory thrives, and hires more workers; I receive a handsome return on my investment; everybody wins. Again, with no data at all, I suspect this scenario is increasingly rare (especially for shoes) and largely an anachronism.

Much of the spectacular wealth of recent years came from buying and selling things that don't really add anything to the economy -- credit default swaps, or collateralized debt obligations whatever other insane financial instruments the "genuises" on Wall St can cook up. Oh, and houses of course: we just sat around doing nothing while our houses appreciated in value. What kind of work ethic is that? Why are we encouraging this?

So, on the one hand, I don't want to deter someone from investing in a new shoe factory. But is that what's really happening? I feel like we've made it so easy to make boat-loads of money without actually doing anything, building anything or contributing in any way. That seems like a huge problem.

To me, the real deadbeats of the world are the flunkies who, say, shuffle dollars to euros to yen to dollars, walk away with a few million dollars, and then bitch and moan about every penny that goes to a new school instead of a new yacht.
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admin
Site Admin


Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1798
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Wed Jan 21, 2009 3:37 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

samz wrote:

So, on the one hand, I don't want to deter someone from investing in a new shoe factory. But is that what's really happening? I feel like we've made it so easy to make boat-loads of money without actually doing anything, building anything or contributing in any way. That seems like a huge problem.

That's why I find the bailout so distasteful. It is benefiting precisely those who you are describing. The market was working to purge them and would have done so without government interference. Maybe better regulation would help in this regard too. However, I think changing the tax code just to target these people would be overkill and affect too many innocent bystanders (e.g., shoe factory investors).

One other minor quibble - I wouldn't say they aren't contributing in any way. There are some benefits to derivatives and such, but the compensation is way out of proportion to the value that they provide, in my opinion.

samz wrote:

To me, the real deadbeats of the world are the flunkies who, say, shuffle dollars to euros to yen to dollars, walk away with a few million dollars, and then bitch and moan about every penny that goes to a new school instead of a new yacht.


I think there is room for more than one type of deadbeat. The group you describe is especially undeserving of government welfare (bailouts), though.

- admin
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JCK



Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 559

PostPosted: Wed Jan 21, 2009 4:25 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

john p wrote:
We have the largest number of people laid off since the early 80's so I think many people that recently bought or got caught in ARMS or both will increase the supply of homes this Spring.



I think the employment issues are going to be bigger than people in ARMs, unless interest rates start rising. Have you checked the LIBOR numbers lately? They're pretty damn low.

People losing their jobs will be caught whether or not they have loans.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Wed Jan 21, 2009 4:36 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great to hear from you JCK:

Do you have any feel for this, or feel comfortable making a guess?

In my mind on one side of the equation you have:

some pent up demand because people are sitting on the sidelines, you have lower rates than last year, you have lower prices than the past three years.

On the other side you have:

negative sentiment's self fulfilling prophecy (negative irrational panic), job losses, a big supply of homes, affordability being hurt by increases in property taxes and transportation costs, etc. what else....


On top of that, I think that each price strata and location will feel the affects differently. In this instance the financial industry got torpedoed so maybe some of the more affluent towns might now show signs of stress. Additionally, there are macro factors that affect the local balances.

I'd love to hear your feel of things.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Wed Jan 21, 2009 4:37 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Or anyone elses feel for that matter.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Wed Jan 21, 2009 5:05 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

As far as the Bailout discussion:

People have forgotten two words - SACRIFICE and DISCIPLINE.

State versus State:

When certain States wanted services they didn't sacrifice any others so their Budgets grew like crazy. It is wrong that other more disciplined States that have sacrificed are having to bail out the irresponsible. For example, I found that in the past decade the Federal Government had wages grow by 41% and Califoria grew their wages 80%. Now if you live in California you either got better services than the other States that had fiscal restraint, or California had to increase their wages because the cost of living got so out of control. California and Massachusetts have their hands out for Bailout money because we were not disciplined and we had our cost of living drift out of control. Currently, the Bailout strategy makes no adaptation to region, which is wrong.

Generation versus Generation:

The State of Massachusetts has the highest debt per capita of any State. We basically go about our daily spending and pile the deficit on debt. People don't care about future generations and the young are so stupid that they actually support the politicans that are saddling them the most with debt. Patrick and Obama have "cool" messages but it was Muffy and McCain that actually wanted to reel in the out of control spending that would have given them some daylight to grow. Now as they worship their messiah they're going to have to breathe and smell the armpit of socialistic debt.

Risk versus Risk:

When people decide to be conservative they tend to not make the quick gains that someone who rolls the dice might make. We have forgotten the phrase "A SELF CREATED HARDSHIP". Why do people who played their hand conservatively have to bail out those that rolled the dice for big profits?

Private sector versus Public Sector:

The private sector wages have stagnated. The public sector (Massachusetts) has had the cost of wages grow 20.5% between 2004 and 2007. The private sector has been 9.5% (tracks inflation).

The public pensions versus private 401k's:

This mess combines many of the aforementioned. Many of the pensions are structured like annutities meaning the people get a fixed amount (typically a percentage of their high three years salary with Cost of Living Adjustments). Now there are different risk strata investments. For every forecasted rate of return there is a risk factor. If you are bonded to an obligation that requires you to pay out a fixed amount it should temper and limit your investment strategy to very low risk investments. For instance, a growth stock that doesn't pay dividends can play fast and loose as can a hedge fund because people are risking and gambling on a high return. If you are managing an income vehicle like say Coca Cola, you have to manage your affairs more conservatively. The Public Pensions we're finding had money in hedge funds, that Ponzi Scheme Maddow, etc. etc. The question is why on earth were they invested in such risky stuff and were there any regulations that prohibited them from putting people's retirement on the casino craps table like that?

It gets better. Really this part you might have to sit down for..... You won't believe it. Because many pensions have lost like 40% plus, those funds need to be replenished and there are now laws that require towns and cities to maintain certain dollar amounts in these funds. So think about how self serving the public sector was, they made laws to protect their money but had no law to manage the risk of the investment. You won't believe it but if you're a private sector person and you just lost 40% in your 401k, you will now have to pay out of your property taxes and state income taxes to replenish the retirement funds of the public sector. That's right, you got your money drained and you have to use your money to fill up the public sectors bucket.

This isn't "Change I can Believe in". I can't fucking believe this.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Wed Jan 21, 2009 6:16 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh, another thing to put on the side of the scale arguing for house prices bottoming is that the people on the fences have most likely had three years of cost of living adjustments to their salaries so they might be making 9 percent more than at the peak of 2005, so if you take 9 percent of the median salary and what, say that's $5,000 and you multiply that times 3 times your salary for affordablity, that median affordability reach height just went up $15,000.

Again, you have to weigh everthing, but this one point adds $15k of affordability to the median house price in my calculations.

A point for the other side is that houses in Florida are really cheap now so if someone was thinking about relocating, now is an awesome time. We may see people near retirement who are laid off just pack up and relocate to F.L.A.
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balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204

PostPosted: Wed Jan 21, 2009 11:37 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

As a whole, engineers in the Boston area haven't been receiving cost of living adjustments but perhaps others in MA have been more fortunate. Your argument that housing is becoming more affordable is valid but that doesn't make housing affordable. The average home is still worth about 5 times the median income. It would appear, then, that this point adds $25k to affordability.
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samz



Joined: 19 Feb 2008
Posts: 102
Location: Medford, MA

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 4:29 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

admin wrote:
samz wrote:

So, on the one hand, I don't want to deter someone from investing in a new shoe factory. But is that what's really happening? I feel like we've made it so easy to make boat-loads of money without actually doing anything, building anything or contributing in any way. That seems like a huge problem.

That's why I find the bailout so distasteful. It is benefiting precisely those who you are describing. The market was working to purge them and would have done so without government interference. Maybe better regulation would help in this regard too. However, I think changing the tax code just to target these people would be overkill and affect too many innocent bystanders (e.g., shoe factory investors).


True -- it's definitely tricky. Of course, it would help if the smartest people coming out of B-schools and PhD programs were using their skills for *fixing* the system instead of pillaging it.

admin wrote:

One other minor quibble - I wouldn't say they aren't contributing in any way. There are some benefits to derivatives and such, but the compensation is way out of proportion to the value that they provide, in my opinion.


Fair enough.

admin wrote:

samz wrote:

To me, the real deadbeats of the world are the flunkies who, say, shuffle dollars to euros to yen to dollars, walk away with a few million dollars, and then bitch and moan about every penny that goes to a new school instead of a new yacht.


I think there is room for more than one type of deadbeat. The group you describe is especially undeserving of government welfare (bailouts), though.


Ah, the many and varied kinds of deadbeats. I like the fact that you're so inclusive. Very generous.

I guess what I find particular irksome is that these people really think they've earned the compensation and, now, the bailouts. Without any apparent sense of irony, they don't feel like they should have to contribute to the safety net, but they are happy to be the beneficiaries of it.
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 148
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Thu Aug 10, 2017 2:02 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

This snap poll will mark its 10th anniversary in about 500 days. There was news today about pending sales in Massachusetts, and a survey by the National Association of Realtors.

Before reading either, does in make sense to get another snapshot?

https://twitter.com/realestatecafe/status/895634932151848960

We can create a more detailed survey later, as we did in past years with BostinBubble, but for now the goal is simply to inform the growing conversation about housing, both the need for more affordable housing and the overheated housing market.

Anyone want to meet at the YIMBY MeetUp tonight to talk in person? If you visit the Twitter thread above, you'll find details.
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Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog/
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 10, 2017 8:18 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

RealEstateCafe wrote:
This snap poll will mark its 10th anniversary in about 500 days. There was news today about pending sales in Massachusetts, and a survey by the National Association of Realtors.

Before reading either, does in make sense to get another snapshot?

https://twitter.com/realestatecafe/status/895634932151848960

We can create a more detailed survey later, as we did in past years with BostinBubble, but for now the goal is simply to inform the growing conversation about housing, both the need for more affordable housing and the overheated housing market.

Anyone want to meet at the YIMBY MeetUp tonight to talk in person? If you visit the Twitter thread above, you'll find details.


Many people are kicking themselves for not buying when prices were lower in 2009. Prices will never be that low again. YIMBY will never work, the big developers and homeowners own all the politicians. Just go to any zoning board meeting and you will see what happens when people try to build affordable housing.
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 148
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:37 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

My question is whether people will regret buying in 2017, apparently the Realtors are finding reason to be concerned as well:

Consumers Fear Another Housing Bubble
http://bit.ly/FearREDux
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog/
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:27 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

RealEstateCafe wrote:
My question is whether people will regret buying in 2017, apparently the Realtors are finding reason to be concerned as well:

Consumers Fear Another Housing Bubble
http://bit.ly/FearREDux


Strange question as that depends on the time horizon and objective. I doubt that the people who bought primary residences even at the previous two tops (89, 05) complained 10 years later if they were able to stay put.
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