bostonbubble.com

[admin]

[melonleftcoast]

"I would like to give you the benefit of the doubt since a Google search for your handle is consistent with what you have said. The 7% chance of the IP locator being wrong is small but not-negligible. It also gets more improbable when you consider that it would both need to be wrong (7%) and also have chosen Boston as the wrong location (7% X ?%). However, maybe Ygnition routes certain web caching requests through Boston. "

I asked my husband why we'd (still) have a Boston area IP address, and he didn't know and suggested what you said in the last sentence above, although he thought it would be strange since we're all the way out in CA.

I've never googled my "handle" before, but there I am! Also, I used to post on the boston.com real estate blog occasionally under mel2leftcoast.

Anyway, like you said, back to the topic at hand:

Yes, I definitely agree that the surge/up swing in under agreements could be the beginning of the spring (aka "dead cat bounce") selling season of 2008.

I do not have any saved searches from last year, or last month, because on nemoves, they over-write them. What I do have is over 400 saved listings on my nemoves account from 2005 to present (mostly in Arlington since that is where we used to live). Many of those listings were cancelled/expired and then relisted later. Some sold, some never sold. But that would take me A LOT of time to manually go through all those listings, match up the properties, and then compare them. It's safe to say that I won't ever have the time to do it.

However, if anyone is interested, I could spend a bit of time to pull a few listings off my list that I remember selling for less than what they previously sold for a few years before.

:)mel

[admin]

Can you post any examples for properties that just went under agreement recently? At least we can come back and revisit them later to see what the lag was.

This site says closing might take around 30 - 45 days:

http://homebuying.about.com/od/buyingahome/qt/101107_homclose.htm

This site also says 4 - 6 weeks is typical:

http://www.pefcu.com/loans/faqs_realestate.html

Here's a chart which shows the seasonality of sales in Massachusetts:

http://bp1.blogger.com/_ym8Q9yxUg34/R8Q0stn9hNI/AAAAAAAACUY/JunZ19SdiVE/s1600-h/ma0108salesyear.JPG

Based on all of this, it doesn't seem unusual that "under agreement" listings would increase now given that closed sales usually start ramping up for the spring in March and April.

Maybe viewing the historical inventory levels would help. There is a tool here that will let you view the historical inventories by town:

http://www.papereconomy.com/Inventory.aspx

It doesn't go back terribly far, but it's better than nothing. There is a composite for the entire Boston area here:

http://www.paperdinero.com/Inventory.aspx?town=Boston&state=MA

Any examples of past sales that you feel like posting are welcome as well.

- admin

[melonleftcoast]

"Can you post any examples for properties that just went under agreement recently? At least we can come back and revisit them later to see what the lag was."

Here is a list of properties that have gone under agreement in the past couple of weeks. Nemoves does not list the under agreement date, so I've listed properties that I've been watching closely, mostly in Wayland, although one is in Wellesley:

ADDRESS MLS# UA PRICE
47 overbrook drive, wellesley, MA 70652135 $479,900
302 concord road, wayland, MA 70706275 $655,000
157 school street, wayland, MA 70624556 $599,500
61 glezen lane, wayland, MA 70640664 $522,000
119 commonwealth road, wayland, MA 70702736 $499,000
17 sherman bridge road, wayland, MA 70710893 $419,000

Thanks for all the excellent links and tips regarding sales info. We'll see how much of a bounce this will be. I've noticed new listings trickling in under my parameters, but not a huge increase (yet?). Time will tell.

Here are a few of my favorite "bring your checkbook" sales:

ADDRESS SOLD 6/15/05 SOLD 3/23/07
27 high ledge, wellesley, MA $993,000 $883,500

ADDRESS SOLD 11/24/03 SOLD 11/30/06
13 Russell Place, arlington, MA $369,900 $350,000

ADDRESS SOLD 10/12/05 SOLD 09/13/07
3-a Mill Street, arlington, MA $685,000 $617,500

This data was compiled using my saved listings, and then searching under Recent Sales on boston.com for previous sales.

[john p]

Massachusetts is unique because we get some towns that are protected better than others. For instance, in Weston, they give you grief if you build anything but a shingle style home, and in Middleboro, where the people in town are seeing ghosts (not kidding) are allowing casinos.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2008/03/_tom_herde_for.html

So, of course, if you're a predator wanting to rob billions from a State would you choose to take on the people who won't allow McMansions or the people that are seeing ghosts? They chose the Scooby Doo approach.

It takes some street smart people iwho love their neighbors in these poorer communities to step forward to defend their people.

In Lynn, there is a saying "When in doubt, knock them out."

They wouldn't be so punchy if people weren't trying to rip them off as much and communities like Weston or Wellesley showed a little loyalty to their fellow towns and offered some support when the casino predators choose one of the weakest of our bretheren...

[admin]

[Hard Rain]

Admin,

The overlook drive property is 1,476 sq ft cape in below average condition according to the assessor's office. Here is a handy link to assessor websites in Massachusetts...

http://www.appraisercentral.com/st/massasses.htm

[melonleftcoast]

Thanks for the info (admin and Hard Rain) for the overlook drive property. If the actual square footage had been listed (1476sq ft), it would not have come up under my searches, as I'm looking for places >1500sq ft.

A side note: when we were selling our multifamily in 2005, one of the units was 1505 sq ft., as measured by an architect, and when we got the place appraised, the appraisor grilled us about the actual square footage and essentially wouldn't believe that the square footage was over 1500 sq ft until we e-mailed her the architect's drawings and measurements. She apparently "forgot" to include part of the unit in the measurement. My point: that is when I found out how touchy the measured size of homes are. As for realtors "not being honest" about the sq ft. of their listings, well, is anyone really surprised? They are paid on commission, by the seller. However, thank you for reminding me that unless the sellers have architect's drawings of the house, the square footage is an approximation, in the seller's favor.

Personally, I would prefer over 1700 sq ft, but my family would fit nicely into 1500-1600 sq ft now, and we could look to expand a few years down the road. It really depends on the layout of the house, too.

As for the Concord Road listing, one thing I did notice that was unique about that property is that it is claiming it is over 5 acres. That is a lot of land for Wayland. I'm sure a developer scooped that up and we'll be seeing lots for sale soon (or not so soon, depending how onerous the building and planning dept. is in Wayland): "Will Build to Your Design!".

Thanks for the info on Zillow. I look at it occassionally, but I find their valuation of houses to be too random. Maybe it is random because it does readjust the value of a particular house (zillow 27 high ledge in wellesley) if it sells for less, but it doesn't seem to affect the surrounding houses valuations enough, or at all.

However, I do remember a particular single family selling in Arlington in 2006 for A LOT more than I thought it should: 87 Medford Street. I toured it, and it is a beautiful house (but on a very busy street). It sold in April 2006 for $801K, but now, Zillow has it valued at $667,000. So, zillow's valuation algorithm has taken something into account and significantly lowered the value of that property in the two years since it sold.

I'll post more of my saved properties that go under agreement, but it has been quiet for a few days.

I am wondering if the announcement of the higher loan limits on temporary conforming loans, which I believe begin in July, will have a chilling affect for this spring's selling season, and then we'll see prices spike the closer we get to July, and more sales after July. Hmmm.

[Guest]

It seems the new loan limits go into effect immediately, not in July. So I guess we'll see how much that will help sellers get their prices this year, including this spring.

Maybe that explains why this property that I'm watching raised their price this week after lowering it last week?

6 York Road, Wayland, MLS#70695170
Price Reduced: 01/30/08 -- $675,000 to $650,000
Price Reduced: 02/28/08 -- $650,000 to $600,000
Price Increased: 03/05/08 -- $600,000 to $649,000

[CJ]

[Sean]

I don't think there is a bounce right now. The best indication for the housing market is the inventory. My current observation is the inventory is higher than same time last year. And according to MAR, at the end of January the inventory went up to 15.4 months from 10.4 months last year.

The massive foreclosures just started hitting the market. I know two houses were foreclosed last August. They are not sold, and not on the market yet.

[melonleftcoast]

Two more of my saved properties have gone under agreement this weekend (March 8 & 9), both in Belmont:

36 Sandrick Road, $595K, MLS#70683763

34 Birch Hill Road, $439K, MLS#70720839

The Birch Hill Road property sounds like it is a pit: "This property could be a "gem in the rough." Seller makes NO WARRANTIES EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED. Lots of deferred maintenance and potential mold issues may exist. Suggest hiring professionals to determine existing residence habitability. Could be a bargain for the experienced professional "fixer-upper." "

Also, the Guest comment above about 6 York Road in Wayland was from me ... I thought I signed in, but guess I didn't.

:)mel

[Hard Rain]

Mel,

There is a common trait to many of your examples. Most, if not all the homes were built in the late fifties or early sixties. They are owned by older folk who have little or no mortgage. My guess is these people understand where the market is headed and are getting out while the getting's good. The 34 Birch hill property is selling for almost half its assessed value, assuming they paid full listing price. Knife catchers buying these dated ranches wrongly believe it's 2005 ......

[admin]

[melonleftcoast]

After owning a 100 yr old Victorian, my husband and I realized that we just didn't want to spend so much time (some is OK, just not as much as our old house) and money updating and maintaining a property. I would say that our preferences have shifted to a house that is <50yrs old and one or two stories. Honestly, I'd love a ranch house, and hopefully we'll be able to find one at a "discount", since they seem to be less desirable in New England. My hubby likes colonials, though, so we'll see.

It all really depends on the property, as some properties have been better maintained than others.

Admin, you are right in that seller motivation is huge, and my husband and I believe that, as buyers, it is a waste of time to try to negotiate with unmotivated sellers that want to recoup all their "sunk costs". Especially since some sellers are still listing their properties at such high prices!

Hard Rain, it could be that the properties that I like are newer (for Boston area) AND that the owners have owned them for 20+ years. However, I'm not spending the time to research every property to see what the mortgage situation is like. I will do that when we get closer to buying in a year or so, but for now, I'm tracking these properties to follow the general trend of the market for properties I like in towns that I like.

And I may just have to add Acton back into my list of favorite towns since the prices seem to be SO much less than my favorite towns closer in .