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Joined: 14 Jul 2007 Posts: 0 Location: Greater Boston
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admin Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005 Posts: 1826 Location: Greater Boston
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Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 4:53 pm GMT Post subject: |
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It seems that MarketWatch is basing their statement that "Boston may have bottomed" on the S&P/CSI increases from March to April and April to May. That's just sloppy. A seasonal month-to-month increase in prices is very common in the spring. It happened last year as well and obviously did not signal a bottom then. The more relevant year-over-year change for Boston is notably down by 4.3%, and that is without adjusting for inflation.
Furthermore, futures on the index are still predicting further declines as far ahead as they look, doubly contradicting the prediction of a bottom. With that said, the closest contract (to be settled in August) is up about 3.4% today, so the decline announced today may not have been as deep as expected. Keep an eye on the more distant contracts at the close of trading today to see if the longer term outlook has changed much. (Unfortunately, they only go a year into the future, so they aren't particularly long term, but it's better than nothing.)
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admin Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005 Posts: 1826 Location: Greater Boston
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admin Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005 Posts: 1826 Location: Greater Boston
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Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:06 pm GMT Post subject: |
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It looks like the increase in the August 2007 contract from this morning was short lived. The contract ended the day up 0.4% rather than the originally noted 3.4%. That was quite the unusual swing on the chart. The November 2007 and February 2008 contracts were up a little as well, but the increase tapers off the further out you go, and there was no change to the May 2008 contract, with is the farthest looking one.
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JCK
Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Posts: 559
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Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 3:57 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Hey admin,
Any idea what type of volume these futures are trading at?
It's great to see a market based "prediction" of where housing will end up, but I wonder if the volumes of these things traded are significant enough... |
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admin Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005 Posts: 1826 Location: Greater Boston
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Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 4:35 pm GMT Post subject: |
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JCK wrote: | Hey admin,
Any idea what type of volume these futures are trading at?
It's great to see a market based "prediction" of where housing will end up, but I wonder if the volumes of these things traded are significant enough... |
JCK,
If you follow the FutureSource link and click on one of the individual contracts, you should see some customization options at the bottom which let you add volume to the chart. It is indeed anemic right now. I fully expect that there are some inefficiencies, maybe even enough to make some cash off of. However, I still think the futures are several orders of magnitude more reliable and trustworthy than "forecasts" from the NAR/MAR.
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