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Why the Boston area will not be a tech leader anymore
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 06, 2007 8:24 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
What do you think the current lynch pins in IT are? I mean if we could get this to do that, than all of this is possible.....


Here's one that I like:

Quote:

Complexity classes P and NP
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The relationship between the complexity classes P and NP is an unsolved question in theoretical computer science. It is generally agreed to be the most important such unsolved problem. It is also generally agreed to be one of the most important unsolved problems in mathematics; the Clay Mathematics Institute has offered a $1 million US prize for the first correct proof.

In essence, the P = NP question asks: if positive solutions to a YES/NO problem can be verified quickly (where "quickly" means "in polynomial time"), can the answers also be computed quickly?

Read the full article...



There is also a section on the consequences of being able to solve this.

Princeton has a video lecture series which covers the P vs NP topic (among other things). Look for the set of three lectures from February 13, 14 and 15, 2007 by Avi Wigderson. He is pretty entertaining and does a good job of making the material accessible.

I don't know whether this is a lynch pin in the sense that you may have been looking for something that is just around the corner. I think that the typical evolutionary steps in IT are determined by market demands rather than technical limitations since technological progress has been rapidly outpacing the ability of the market to adapt for awhile now.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 08, 2007 3:27 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

John, just recently, I had a chance to speak with some highly competitive h.s. and college types and this is the buzz...

their parents and relatives are trashing all science and engineering work with the whole bubblenomics (pump 'n dump) as the key indicator for those professions whether it's IT, biotech, or nano-whatever. These "A" students from h.s. places like the Latins (Boston, Academy, or Roxbury) to universities like Cornell or Columbia are definitely into either premed/pre-healthcare, pre-law, or pre-banking/finance/management consulting. The idea here is that if one's into technology, then the best that one can hope for is to manage a USA based multinational R&D operation in Indonesia than in rising to the top while competing against Asians for those tech jobs abroad. I believe this perspective makes sense and as a result, we won't be seeing our best and brightest (meaning those can get both A's and produce meaningful work) go into the sciences anymore. And I don't think anything will change this M.O. once it becomes mainstream among top caliber students nationwide. I suspect these northeast corridor students are the most worldly so they're less likely to be influence by fabrications of tech worker shortages then let's say someone out in StLouis who might not have as much contact with those in outside of his friends whose parents work at a Monsanto facility and still tout the value of an engineering education.
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john p



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 1:18 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think if you've programmed a kid to be a highly trained robot and stifled any creativity and sheltered them from any potential failure than I think it is the right thing to do to not let them get into anything that deals with a "cutting/bleeding edge" industry that involves risk, feast/famine cycles and a discipline to constantly stay current. I'm not knocking anyone, we certainly need people like this (highly skilled/intelligent conformists). They are like the power dog in the sled. I think though that there should always be room for the non-conformists too (the lead dog), otherwise our motor would seize and we'd follow a product lifecycle full steam into it’s decline.
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 2:30 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

sled dog:

http://www.leaddogspockkennels.com/LineUp/index.html

pack behavior:

http://www.italian-greyhound.net/packbehave.htm

I think parents ought to let their kids have some free time to socialize naturally.

I think the IT folks have some valuable experience from the tech bubble and I wonder what the next wave could be with this experience?
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 2:55 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I think it is the right thing to do to not let them get into anything that deals with a "cutting/bleeding edge" industry that involves risk, feast/famine cycles and a discipline to constantly stay current


I think this will continue but it won't be like it was during the prior century where it was the cornerstone of our culture, starting from Bell & Edison all the way up to Jobs & Paige-Brin in the latter years.

Moving forward, you'll see a few Whitehead or Livermore types, with VC money, starting overseas ventures in Singapore or Malaysia with a worldwide staff from the getgo. What'll happen is those 'A' students will coordinate the resources to make these collaborations effective and thereby, fulfill a vital management consulting role which goes above simply reorganizing a company once things go awry.
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john p



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 2:56 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know my posts sound abstract, but technology does seem a bit like a combination of discipline and conformity as well as that creative wilderness survival (feast/famine, hunting, team packs etc.) I have a lot of respect for people that embrace that sort of life. I see techies kind of like intellectual bikers. I'm not cool enough to ride with them but sit back in awe when a pack roars through.
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 3:37 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Did you know that Lynn Massachusetts in addition to Lynn English and Lynn Classical used to have a "Shoe High School" up until the late 50's? So what you're saying is that the wave of technology is akin to the shoe industry that was at one time, a big part of the economy in Massachusetts?

I think that this whole internet stuff is just the tip of the iceberg and a lot of techs worldwide will be very busy populating the potential demand and opportunities once the emerging nations become conversant with technology. The "main stream" will be an ocean pretty soon. In the end, "stuff" needs to make its way over the physical oceans so I think that the US will overcome our current economic challenges and you will see more manufacturing and "tooth to tail" here. The key is being able to transpose the raw to the cooked here. Because I see so much fat in the financial management sectors, you will see smaller tooth to tail companies prosper and a new paradigm will be born. Think about the Charles Dickens’s novel "A Christmas Carol” that Scrooge guy saw the industrial revolution as the future and pointed to a manufactured chair as a sign of things to come. Now, it seems that if you do a little hunting, you can find a kid from the North Bennet School of carpentry in the North End to build you a custom table and chairs for the same price as it would be to import something overseas. Keep an eye on self-sustaining smaller tooth to tail economies like Vermont and see if their economy starts picking up. I think the key for techies is to get the manufacturing back. The financial industry is eating so much in the mark ups that there is opportunity for the lean and mean tooth to tails to make their presence heard. This is where the whole little kid socialization in the woods comes into play here, you need to be able to connect with others to put a team together and get customers... There is no syllabus to teach you those skills.
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 5:18 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I think the key for techies is to get the manufacturing back. The financial industry is eating so much in the mark ups that there is opportunity for the lean and mean tooth to tails to make their presence heard. This is where the whole little kid socialization in the woods comes into play here, you need to be able to connect with others to put a team together and get customers... There is no syllabus to teach you those skills.



You know, that idealistic half of me really wants to believe this but then the other half of me sees a dystopia on the horizon with underemployment and people going paycheck-to-paycheck on semi-quarterly contracts for work.
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john p



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 6:00 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lots of people I respect say the same thing you're saying. I'm also getting this vibe too.

http://www.boston.com/jobs/college/articles/2007/07/08/in_todays_workplace_younger_job_seekers_hold_the_advantage/

What do you make of the whole shortage of workers thing?
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 7:12 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hmm...

I'm not entirely buying the gist of the article.

For instance, they mentioned that entry level salaries didn't cover costs so a lot of kids return home. Yet, in other articles (along a similar vein), it indicated that Gen-Y kids, being insulated their whole lives, couldn't deal with paying rent, eating out, and then not having enough for college loans so they had to eliminate the rent from the equation which is the reason for being home with the parents. At the same time, with grade inflation nowadays, getting a "B-" or a "C", in a tough college subject is unheard of, even at places like Univ of Chicago which used to be "B-" centered school overall. When I was young (btw, only fifteen years ago), an "A" level student was a 3.7+ GPA, today, it's a 3.95-4.0. Also, back then, a gentlemen's "B+" to "A-" was unusual. It was usually a gentlemen's "B" to "B-" or even "C+" if the grader was more Chicago-like in attitude. Typically, many of my peers, during our early twenties shared apartments and made our entry level salaries do their work in covering costs while networking for better jobs which is easier when you're living among peers and in a near urban area.

And this is the part which completely blew me away...

Quote:
As a result, young people bring unprecedented confidence to the negotiating table. Some even have their parents in the room for added help


If a guy like this interviewed at any of the past few places I'd worked in, they'd turn him down for a more mature candidate.

Where the article is correct is that companies tend to prefer younger applicants but that's more due to age discrimination than anything else. If there's a shortage of a targeted class of 24-28 years old, then the only thing that would have to change is that companies would need to stop chucking resumes of those over 45 and thereby eliminate the so-called bargaining edge of inexperienced newbies. With so many corporate types being disposed of regularly, getting a 50-something with a mortgage at reduced salaries shouldn't be a problem. It's just as easy to close the doors to a younger generation who gets haughty in a time of declining worker respresentation across the board.

At the same time, the whole web portal entreprenuer will persist, as this phenom started a decade ago (with the i-net bubble) but has now slowed down to a steady state stream of creation and destruction.

All and all, where I see a shortage is among targeted and experienced (10 yrs+) professionals in areas which are tough to offshore where there are intrinsic security or legal reasons around. For instance, when certain optical systems for fail-safe systems (power stations/NRC, water treatment facilities, etc) have no new entrants of less than 5 years field experience, that person with 10+ yrs will be well compensated ($220K+/yr) and at the same time, he'll make sure that no one else gets his experience to be able to replace him outside of a strict apprentice system. And this can happen, a bifuricated workforce where certain specialists make a mint but others, being underemployed 50-60 somethings or entry level kids, work in shifting work contracts with reduced benefits and no job security.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 7:16 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Management, being management, would still prefer a younger person to an older one for fear of being beaten by a more experienced underlying.

There would have to be a serious work shortage combined with a series of lawsuits against offshoring sensitive work for a 40 year old manager to hire a crew of 50 or 60 year olds. And more likely than not, they'll be a glass ceiling where only certain groups of experienced team leads could enter management. A type of white collar caste system might arise out of this.

What's more likely, however, is that they'll give decent salaries to underperforming 22 years old, fire them, and then ship the whole crop of work to a work camp in Siberia.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 6:05 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's a vicious cycle, active or passive age discrimination prevents older people from getting jobs while the companies complain that they can't find cheap talent at <32 years of age which then either leads to more H1-Bs or offsourcing of existing work to newer and cheaper destinations in the world.
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2007 4:10 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
active or passive age discrimination prevents older people



I'm at the office now and all (meaning 100%) of the employees with grey hair/wrinkles are in either in documentation or admin services.

All the system admins, programmers, etc are 45 or younger. So age discrimination is rampant because having spoken to a lot of these 50-60 somethings, a slew of them know about electronics and computing but weren't hired for those skills.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:15 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
all (meaning 100%) of the employees with grey hair/wrinkles are in either in documentation or admin services


This is common for many tech companies. The grey haired/wrinkled employees are either management or non-technical in occupation. Tech work is for the young or those on H-1 visa. This segregation of roles also plays into the concept that science and engineering work isn't as valuable as law, medicine, or accounting where you'll see lots of people of all age spectrums doing value added tasks.
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